Apple has been reportedly working on a secret car project for years. At least once a year, these reports come up of Apple having a self-driving car "on the horizon." They've had around 1,000 engineers working on this since 2015, with some of the top engineers in the industry being "secretly" recruited onto their teams, along with startup acquisitions, published papers, and the like. Whether this 2024 date is legitimate or not remains to be seen, but I'm continuously puzzled, without fail, every year, as to why Apple is trying to get in this game. It doesn't line up with any of their other products. It also won't have the same ROI impacts their current devices have, not even close - whether its an independently manufactured car or they partner with a manufacturer, starting a new car line is one of the most difficult things to do, period. They may have the money, but the engineering and logistics are seriously some of the hardest things to overcome, and for someone like Apple, who usually plays it safe and takes their time, it's not going to be any different. Tesla has had to work their employees to the ground to just stay alive, and they're the only 'new' auto manufacturer that has had success in this decade, new EV lines being promised from other manufacturers around for a century have underdelivered, been scaled back/delayed, or outright cancelled. Even if they do everything perfectly right and smooth, the payoff for them is still relatively small compared to iPhone/Mac margins.
They've also changed their tone on the not-so-secret-but-secret project several times. I recall Cook saying they weren't in the business of making [a car] to sell themselves, rather "focus on the autonomy aspect" and distribute the package to auto manufacturers. For a company with a reputation
set in stone for having an obsession with the integration of hardware and software in their products, it boggles me why they would essentially make a third-party driving system for other manufacturers. That doesn't scream Apple at all. Apple is all about creating a lifestyle and need for their products, and if they're now in the business of making hidden software and hardware people take for granted, this is a
big change for them.
The technology is becoming so overwhelming and will be so much in use by then, that it would be impossible for "policy" to preserve the buggy whip. The "policy" concerns are based on the liability issues from the current shortcomings of the safety technology. That is evolving.
Policy stems much further than liabilities and safety. New business models will form and will require regulation. We still debate/ignore the AirBnB issues that have been prevalent for several years. City planning and regional transportation are going to fundamentally shift, and we see how long it takes to get any kind of project going in Boston, private or public. Even if technology 'accelerates' that, none of it will go unchecked at any level. Just last summer, scooter rentals left cities in CA essentially shocked. LA's 311 system took in 1200 complaints or issues/reports related to the scooters in 9 days. The cities reacted by severely restricting how and where they are allowed to operate, and they have since died down, not really living up to the hype they had at first.
Policy is NOT a constant. It evolves also. Hell, as a US federal POLICY , just over 5 years ago, how many legally married gay couples could legally buy cannabis?
Those efforts took much longer than 5 years to get put into place. Our policy makers can barely pass a bill, looking at the news today.
They also embarrassingly fail to understand technology at its basic level. Giving this Congress, with an average age of 62, 10 years to fully understand, adopt, and develop policy around something that doesn't really exist today is pretty optimistic.