COVID-19 Impacts on Logan, MBTA, and Boston travel and tourism

The MBTA "Rapid Transit" (fare gated stations including those on the Silver Line) eeked out a new COVID-era high in ridership on Friday, June 25. It was the highest MBTA "Rapid Transit" ridership day since March 2020:

MBTA_RT_Ridership_6_21_Week.png


On Thursday, June 24, the Red Line recorded its highest ridership day since 3/13/20:

Red_Ridership_6_21_Week.png


At 69,200 riders on Thursday 6/24/21, the Red Line recorded:
  • 55% of its Thursday, March 12, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/12 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last time a Red Line's Thursday ridership was higher than 6/24/21.
  • 36% of its Thursday, March 5, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/5 was at the last "normal" Thursday before the precipitous ridership decline.
On the following day (Friday, 6/25/21), the Orange Line and Green Line (gated station validations) each recorded their highest ridership day since 3/13/20:

Orange_Ridership_6_21_Week.png


At 57,489 riders on Friday 6/25/21, the Orange Line recorded:
  • 68% of its Friday, March 13, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/13 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last time MBTA ridership was higher than 6/25/21.
  • 40% of its Friday, March 6, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/6 was at the end of the last "normal" week before the precipitous ridership decline.
  • 38% of its Friday, February 28, 2020 ridership.
    • 2/28 was the highest system-wide ridership Friday of 2020.
Green_Ridership_6_21_Week.png

At 31,970 riders on Friday 6/25/21, the Green Line (gated station validations) recorded its first 30,000 ridership day since March '20 and:
  • 87% of its Friday, March 13, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/13 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last time MBTA ridership was higher than 6/25/21.
  • 45% of its Friday, March 6, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/6 was at the end of the last "normal" week before the precipitous ridership decline.
  • 41% of its Friday, February 28, 2020 ridership.
    • 2/28 was the highest system-wide ridership Friday of 2020.
3/13/20 is in a way a benchmark. It was at the end of a week that saw a precipitous decline in ridership, as COVID precautions took hold. It's the latest day from March 2020 that the MBTA has not yet matched in system-wide ridership.

As ridership keeps ticking up, more stops are starting to surpass their 3/13/20 ridership. These are stations that recorded higher ridership than 3/13/20 on any day from 6/19/21 through 6/25/21 (all dates in 2021):
  • Aquarium on 6/23, 6/24, and 6/25
  • Kenmore on 6/25
    • Red Sox - Yankees game & bussing
    • Highest single-day Kenmore ridership since 3/6/20
  • World Trade Center on 6/21, 6/22, and 6/23
    • 6/23 was the highest single-day World Trade Center ridership since 3/12/20
 
Definitely unimpressed by the % change versus Summer last year. Are companies waiting for the FDA to give full approval or something?
 
I think we’re going to continue to see a slow uptick for months while some people who are fully remote start attending occasional meetings in person, some people are are attending occasional meetings in person start a more hybrid schedule, some people on a hybrid schedule start going in more often, and some people are are driving in traffic now start incorporating in mass transit (again).

It doesn’t help that the MBTA still has a mask mandate. I’ve heard more than one person say that they’ll ride the T once wearing a mask on it is no longer a thing. I thought that was mostly a silly reason, until yesterday afternoon when I was sitting on a 100F, turned-off Orange Line train at Forest Hills waiting for it to depart while wearing an N95. That was pretty brutal.
 
jklo said:
Definitely unimpressed by the % change versus Summer last year. Are companies waiting for the FDA to give full approval or something?
Click to expand...

Im not in Boston, but my work is recommending people come in 2x a week starting July and 4x a week starting August. Not required and employees were directed to speak with their direct supervisor for additional guidance. The guy in charge of my unit has a 90 minute commute so hes more than happy to stay home forever. Previously, he would come in 3x a week, but that flexibility was not granted to all. My understanding is he will advise us to do what we want until September at which point the 4x requirement will probably apply to all.
 
jass said:
Im not in Boston, but my work is recommending people come in 2x a week starting July and 4x a week starting August. Not required and employees were directed to speak with their direct supervisor for additional guidance. The guy in charge of my unit has a 90 minute commute so hes more than happy to stay home forever. Previously, he would come in 3x a week, but that flexibility was not granted to all. My understanding is he will advise us to do what we want until September at which point the 4x requirement will probably apply to all.
Click to expand...

Just across the country I am getting the impression that there's a lot of people who still think they will be able to WFH indefinitely. I don't know where these people who moved to some random city in the US are gonna work. Let alone people here to moved to like Worcester or the Cape.
 
Combination of WFH and I think more people driving in. We may not see peak MBTA usage return for a very long time.
 
New data dump. Ridership was down a bit on the week of 6/26-7/2 compared to the prior week. I assume a lot of people have been taking vacations. These are stations that recorded higher ridership than 3/13/20 (the latest day from March 2020 that the MBTA has not yet matched in system-wide ridership) on any day from 6/26/21 through 7/2/21 (all dates in 2021):
  • Aquarium on 6/26 (Sa)
    • Aquarium continues to be one of the highest ridership stations relative to pre-pandemic, with especially high Friday & Saturday ridership.
  • Copley on 6/26 (Sa)
    • Red Sox - Yankees game, Saturday, highs in the mid-80s.
    • Highest ridership day since Thursday, 3/12/20.
  • Kenmore on 6/26-7/1 (Sa-Th)
    • Red Sox games & shuttle bussing.
  • Sullivan on 6/26-7/1 (Sa-Th)
    • Shuttle bussing.
    • Highest single-day ridership since 2/5/20.
  • World Trade Center on 6/28-7/2 (M-F)
Here's a graph of Sullivan daily ridership from 1/1/20 through 7/2/21, with occurrences of shuttle bussing very clearly visible:

Sullivan_Ridership_through_7_2_21.png


Sullivan likely felt like pre-COVID rush hour on the week of 6/28.

More recent bus data is available as bus ridership data for the week of 7/5/21 was released today. Bus ridership was also below its June local maximum. One of the routes that did not see a decline around July 4th was the #1 bus:

1_Bus_Ridership_7_5_Week.png


At 7,353 riders per weekday on the week of 7/5/21, the 1 bus recorded its highest ridership week since the week of 3/9/20. The #1 bus ridership was 52% of the index week (week of 2/24/20) and 82% of Christmas week '19. The 1 was the 2nd highest ridership route in the system for the second week in a row.
 
Quick second data dump. Bus ridership data from the week of 7/12/21 (last week) was just released. The July 4th vacation ridership dip was just that. At 211,862 riders per weekday, the week of 7/12/21 saw the highest system-wide bus ridership since the week of 3/9/20.

MBTA_Bus_Ridership_7_12_Week.png


System-wide bus ridership was 52% of the index week (week of 2/24/20), 72% of New Years' week '19/'20, 79% of Christmas Week '19, 82% of Thanksgiving week '19.

The 1 bus was yet again the second-highest ridership route in the system (to the 66), and yet again set a COVID-era high in weekly ridership:

1_Bus_Ridership_7_12_Week.png


At 7,330 riders per weekday, the 1 bus increased week-over-week by just 0.4%.

Most of the bus ridership growth in recent weeks has come from the types of riders that were not riding during COVID. Rides to/from Logan Airport and the whiter/wealthier areas (Allston, Back Bay, Brighton, Brookline, Cambridge, Charlestown, Downtown, Fenway, Longwood, Newton, North End, Seaport, Somerville, South Boston, South End, Watertown, West End). In particular, the ten highest ridership routes that surpassed their COVID-era highs by more than 1% on the week of 7/12/21 were the:
  • SL3
  • 57
  • SL1
  • 86
  • 47
  • SL2
  • 89
  • 93
  • 10
  • 7
It appears that the recent increase in bus ridership is driven by those who had the ability to decrease or avoid MBTA trips over the last 17 months, while routes serving a lower-income ridership with fewer options (28, 23, SL5, etc) have mostly been plateauing recently.
 
bigeman312 said:
I think we’re going to continue to see a slow uptick for months while some people who are fully remote start attending occasional meetings in person, some people are are attending occasional meetings in person start a more hybrid schedule, some people on a hybrid schedule start going in more often, and some people are are driving in traffic now start incorporating in mass transit (again).

It doesn’t help that the MBTA still has a mask mandate. I’ve heard more than one person say that they’ll ride the T once wearing a mask on it is no longer a thing. I thought that was mostly a silly reason, until yesterday afternoon when I was sitting on a 100F, turned-off Orange Line train at Forest Hills waiting for it to depart while wearing an N95. That was pretty brutal.
Click to expand...
The mask requirement is Federal. It is applicable nationally.
See:
https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/Mask-Order-CDC_GMTF_01-29-21-p.pdf
https://www.transit.dot.gov/TransitMaskUp
 
stellarfun said:
The mask requirement is Federal. It is applicable nationally.
See:
https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/Mask-Order-CDC_GMTF_01-29-21-p.pdf
https://www.transit.dot.gov/TransitMaskUp
Click to expand...

Yes, that is correct. My wording of "the MBTA still has a mask mandate" was unclear. I should have said "there is a mask mandate that is still in place for the MBTA."

I am not stating that the mask mandate should or should not be lifted, or that it's on the MBTA. I'm simply saying there are many people who will not ride the T until they can do so without being required to wear a mask. There are also many people who will not fly until they can do so without being required to wear a mask.
 
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New data showing the early July decrease was temporary and due to the holiday. The MBTA "Rapid Transit" (fare gated stations including those on the Silver Line) had its highest COVID-era ridership to date on Thursday, July 15, then followed up with its second-highest ridership day on Friday, July 16. These were the highest "Rapid Transit" ridership days since March 2020:

MBTA_RT_Ridership_7_16.png


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From Tuesday, July 13 through Friday, July 16, the Red Line recorded its four highest COVID-era ridership days to date. That Wednesday through Friday were the Red Line's first three 70,000+ ridership days since March '20, with the highest ridership day being Thursday, July 15:

Red_Ridership_7_16.png


At 75,305 riders on Thursday 7/15/21, the Red Line recorded:
  • 60% of its Thursday, March 12, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/12 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last time a Red Line's Thursday ridership was higher than 7/15/21.
  • 39% of its Thursday, March 5, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/5 was at the last "normal" Thursday before the precipitous ridership decline.
  • 39% of its Thursday, February 27, 2020 ridership.
    • 2/27 was the highest ridership Thursday on the Red Line in 2020.
Bottom Line: The Red Line now has ~40% of its pre-COVID ridership.

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On Thursday, July 15, and Friday, July 16, the Orange Line recorded its two highest COVID-era ridership days to date, the highest ridership day being that Thursday:

Orange_Ridership_7_16.png


At 59,454 riders on Thursday 7/15/21, the Orange Line recorded:
  • 55% of its Thursday, March 12, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/12 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last time an Orange Line's Thursday ridership was higher than 7/15/21.
  • 39% of its Thursday, March 5, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/5 was at the last "normal" Thursday before the precipitous ridership decline.
  • 37% of its Thursday, January 30, 2020 ridership.
    • 1/30 was the highest ridership Thursday on the Orange Line in 2020.
Bottom Line: The Orange Line now has ~40% of its pre-COVID ridership.

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On Saturday, July 10, the Green Line recorded its highest COVID-era ridership day to date:

Green_Ridership_7_16.png


It's very notable that this ridership high was set on a Saturday! That was the day after Tropical Storm Elsa, when it was mostly dry with highs in the 70s after an extremely wet start to July. The Red Sox were playing at home against the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that always draws a lot of away fans when they play at Fenway Park. It appears that a larger share of riders on the Green Line lately are non-commuters.

At 31,970 riders on Saturday 7/10/21, the Green Line (gated station validations) recorded:
  • 82% of its Saturday, March 7, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/7 was at the last "normal" Saturday before the precipitous ridership decline.
  • 64% of its Saturday, February 22, 2020 ridership.
    • 2/22 was the highest ridership Saturday on the Green Line (gated station validations) in 2020.
Bottom Line: Red Sox games have boosted Saturday ridership on the Green Line to 60%-80% of its pre-COVID winter Saturday ridership. I wish MassDOT had summer '19 ridership for more of an apples-to-apples comparison. Absent that, it's still notable to see summer Saturday ridership approaching 80% of pre-COVID winter Saturday ridership.

(Not so bold) prediction: once the GLX opens, the Green Line will be the first in the MBTA system to surpass their pre-COVID day-of-week ridership.

Take-away: The B and C branches have the same Saturday frequencies as their off-peak weekday frequencies, while the D and E branches are less frequent on Saturday than off-peak weekdays. Might it be time to increase D and E branch Saturday frequencies to their weekday off-peak level of service? This would mean an extra 0.5 tph on the D branch and an extra 1.5 tph on the E branch.

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On Thursday, July 15, and Friday, July 16, the Blue Line recorded its two highest COVID-era ridership days to date, the highest ridership day being that Thursday:

Blue_Ridership_7_16.png


At 28,807 riders on Thursday 7/15/21, the Blue Line recorded:
  • 70% of its Thursday, March 12, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/12 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last time a Blue Line's Thursday ridership was higher than 7/15/21.
  • 58% of its Thursday, March 5, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/5 was at the last "normal" Thursday before the precipitous ridership decline and the highest ridership day on the Blue Line in 2020.
Bottom Line: The Blue Line now has ~60% of its pre-COVID ridership.

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Friday, 3/13/20 is in a way a benchmark. It was at the end of a week that saw a precipitous decline in ridership, as COVID precautions took hold. It's the latest day from March 2020 that the MBTA has not yet matched in system-wide ridership.

As ridership keeps ticking up, more stops are starting to surpass their 3/13/20 ridership. These are stations that recorded higher ridership than 3/13/20 on any day from 7/3/21 through 7/16/21 (all dates in 2021):
  • Aquarium on 7/10, 7/15, 7/16 (Sa, Th, F)
    • Three highest ridership days since 3/11/20.
    • Saturday, 7/10 had higher ridership than any Saturday since at least 2019.
    • Aquarium continues to be one of the highest ridership stations relative to pre-COVID, especially Thursday through Saturday.
  • Copley on 7/10 and 7/16 (Sa, F)
    • Saturday, 7/10 was the highest ridership day since 3/12/20.
    • The Red Sox were home on 7/10, but they were not home on 7/16.
  • Courthouseon 7/8, 7/13-7/16 (Th, Tu-F)
    • 7/8, 7/15, and 7/16 were the three highest ridership days since 3/13/20.
  • Kenmore on 7/9-7/11, 7/16 (F-Su, F)
    • The Red Sox were home on 7/9-7/11, but they were not home on 7/16.
    • Shuttles replace B Branch service between Washington St and Kenmore on weeknights and weekends for the B Branch station consolidation project.
    • Saturday, 7/10 had higher ridership than any day since at least 2019.
  • Prudential on 7/3 (Sa)
    • 7/3 was the highest ridership day since 3/12/20.
    • First time surpassing 7/13/20 ridership.
  • World Trade Center on 7/6-7/8, 7/12-7/16 (Tu-Th, M-F)
    • 7/14-16 were the three highest ridership days since 3/11/20.
 
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Another data update. The MBTA's record-high systemwide COVID-era "Rapid Transit" ridership (fare gated stations including those on the Silver Line) day of Thursday, July 15 was surpassed five times through last Friday, July 30:

MBTA_RT_Ridership_7_30.png

  • Thursday, July 22 (2nd highest ridership day)
    • Highest ridership day on the Orange Line
    • Highest ridership day on the Red Line
  • Friday, July 23 (highest ridership day)
    • Highest ridership day on the Blue Line
    • Highest ridership day on the Green Line (gated station validations)
  • Wednesday, July 28 (3rd highest ridership day)
  • Thursday, July 29 (4th highest ridership day)
  • Friday, July 30 (5th highest ridership day)
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On July 22, 23, 28, 29, and 30, Orange Line recorded its five highest COVID-era ridership days to date. Those were the Orange Line's first five 60,000+ ridership days since March '20, with the highest ridership day being Thursday, July 22:

Orange_Ridership_7_30.png


At 62,559 riders on Thursday 7/22/21, the Orange Line recorded:
  • 58% of its Thursday, March 12, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/12 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last time an Orange Line's Thursday ridership was higher than 7/22/21.
  • 41% of its Thursday, March 5, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/5 was at the last "normal" Thursday before the precipitous ridership decline.
  • 39% of its Thursday, January 30, 2020 ridership.
    • 1/30 was the highest ridership Thursday on the Orange Line in 2020.
Bottom Line: The Orange Line has ~40% of its pre-COVID weekday ridership.

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On Thursday, July 22, and Friday, July 23, the Red Line recorded its two highest COVID-era ridership days to date, the highest ridership day being that Thursday:

Red_Ridership_7_30.png


At 78,390 riders on Thursday 7/22/21, the Red Line recorded:
  • 62% of its Thursday, March 12, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/12 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last time a Red Line's Thursday ridership was higher than 7/22/21.
  • 41% of its Thursday, March 5, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/5 was at the last "normal" Thursday before the precipitous ridership decline.
  • 40% of its Thursday, February 27, 2020 ridership.
    • 2/27 was the highest ridership Thursday on the Red Line in 2020.
Bottom Line: The Red Line has ~40% of its pre-COVID weekday ridership.

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On July 22, 23, 24, 28, and 29, the Green Line recorded its five highest (gated station validations) COVID-era ridership days to date, with the highest ridership day being Friday, July 23. Notably, on that day, the Green Line became the first of the four main MBTA lines to surpass its March 13, 2020 ridership:

Green_Ridership_7_30.png


Green Line ridership was boosted by Red Sox home games each day from 7/22-7/26, 7/28, and 7/29, including a doubleheader on 7/28. In particular, on the high-water-mark of Friday July 23, the Red Sox hosted the Yankees with high temperatures near 80.

At 37,093 riders on Friday 7/23/21, the Green Line (gated station validations) recorded:
  • >100% of its Friday, March 13, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/13 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last Friday that had higher systemwide MBTA ridership than 7/23/21.
  • 52% of its Friday, March 6, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/6 was at the end of the last "normal" week before the precipitous ridership decline.
  • 48% of its Friday, February 28, 2020 ridership.
    • 2/28 was the highest Green Line ridership day of 2020.
Bottom Line: Red Sox games have boosted Green Line ridership to ~50% of its highest pre-COVID 2020 ridership day. I wish MassDOT had summer '19 ridership for more of an apples-to-apples comparison. Absent that, it's still notable to see the Green Line become the first line to surpass its Friday, March 13 ridership.

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On July 22, 23, and 30, the Blue Line recorded its three highest COVID-era ridership days to date, the highest ridership day being Friday, July 23:

Blue_Ridership_7_30.png


At 29,859 riders on Friday 7/23/21, the Blue Line recorded:
  • 84% of its Friday, March 13, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/13 was in the middle of a precipitous decline in ridership and was the last time a Blue Line's Friday ridership was higher than 7/23/21.
  • 62% of its Friday, March 6, 2020 ridership.
    • 3/6 was at the last "normal" Friday before the precipitous ridership decline and the highest ridership Friday on the Blue Line in 2020.
Bottom Line: The Blue Line now has ~60% of its pre-COVID weekday ridership.

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Station-by-station and bus breakdown to come.
 
Most stations hit COVID-era ridership highs during the two-week period from 7/17 through 7/30. The following did so with at least 5,000 riders in a day:
  • Back Bay: five highest COVID-era ridership days were 7/22-23 (Th-F), 7/27-28 (Tu-W), and 7/30 (F).
  • Central: three highest COVID-era ridership days were 7/22-23 (Th-F) and 7/30 (F).
  • Copley: six highest COVID-era ridership days were 7/22-24 (Th-Sa) and 7/28-30 (W-F).
    • Copley's proportion of March 2020 ridership significantly exceeds the system's.
      • Strong Wednesday through Saturday ridership (especially, but not exclusively when the Red Sox are home), likely due to a higher proportion of non-commuting riders.
  • Downtown Crossing on 7/20 (Tu)
  • Forest Hills: four highest COVID-era ridership days were 7/20 (Tu), 7/22 (Th), 7/28 (W), and 7/30 (F).
  • Harvard: four highest COVID-era ridership days were 7/22-24 (Th-Sa) and 7/30 (F).
  • Haymarket: three highest COVID-era ridership days were 7/23-24 (F-Sa) and 7/30 (F).
    • Haymarket's proportion of March 2020 ridership significantly exceeds the system's.
      • Strong Friday and Saturday ridership, likely due in part to the Haymarket outdoor market itself.
  • Kendall/MIT: first time surpassing 5,000 riders was 7/22 (Th).
  • Maverick: three highest COVID-era ridership days were 7/22-23 (Th-F) and 7/30 (F).
  • North Station: five highest COVID-era ridership days were 7/22-23 (Th-F) and 7/27-29 (Tu-Th).
    • North Station's proportion of March 2020 ridership significantly exceeds the system's.
      • Likely due in part to ongoing busing between North Station and Lechmere.
  • Park Street: four highest COVID-era ridership days were 7/22-24 (Th-Sa) and 7/28 (W).
  • South Station on 7/22 (Th)
Needless to say, the share of "business district" weekday riders continues to lag significantly below pre-COVID. Some telling statistics on that topic:
  • Copley saw higher Saturday ridership in July* than Monday or Tuesday ridership.
  • Haymarket's highest Saturday ridership in July was 50% higher than State's highest day ridership.
*Data for 7/31 has not yet been released, so this is 7/1-7/30.
 
New highs in ridership. The MBTA's record-high systemwide COVID-era "Rapid Transit" ridership (fare gated stations including those on the Silver Line) was broken on Friday, August 6:

MBTA_RT_Ridership_8_6.png


This broke the previous high set two weeks earlier on Friday, July 23.

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The Red Line recorded its highest COVID-era ridership to date on that day, Friday, August 6, with 79,131 riders:

Red_Ridership_78_6.png


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The Orange Line recorded its highest COVID-era ridership to date on that day, Friday, August 6, with 64,906 riders:

Orange_Ridership_8_6.png


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The Blue Line recorded its highest COVID-era ridership to date on that day, Friday, August 6, with 31,899 riders, its first time surpassing 30,000 riders in a day since 3/13/20:

Blue_Ridership_8_6.png


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The Green Line did not set a new high in ridership during this period.

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Many stations hit COVID-era ridership highs during that data week (Saturday, 7/31 through Friday, 8/6). The following did so with at least 5,000 riders in a day:
  • Airport: highest COVID-era ridership day on 8/6 (F). First 5,000 rider day.
  • Back Bay: two highest COVID-era ridership days were 8/4 (W) and 8/6 (F).
  • Central: highest COVID-era ridership day on 8/6 (F).
  • Downtown Crossing: highest COVID-era ridership day on 8/6 (F). First 9,000 rider day.
  • Harvard: highest COVID-era ridership day on 8/6 (F).
  • Haymarket: highest COVID-era ridership day on 8/6 (F).
    • Compared to the system as a whole, Haymarket continues to have strong ridership retainment relative to pre-COVID.
      • Continued strong Friday and Saturday ridership, likely due in part to the Haymarket outdoor market itself.
  • Kendall/MIT: three highest COVID-era ridership days were 8/3 (Tu), 8/4 (W), and 8/6 (F).
    • A large recent increase in ridership. 8% week-over-week increase in average weekday ridership from the week of 7/26 to the week of 8/2.
  • Maverick: highest COVID-era ridership day on 8/6 (F).
Friday has been the highest system-wide ridership day most weeks this year. This is in contrast to pre-COVID, when Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were usually the highest ridership days of the week.

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This is my first time updating bus ridership data in a few weeks. Accordingly, it's worth mentioning that the weeks of 7/19, 7/26, and 8/2 each set bus system highs in COVID-era ridership:

MBTA_Bus_Ridership_8_2_Week.png


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In particular, the 66 set a COVID-era high in weekday ridership on the week of 7/19 only to surpass it yet again on the week of 8/2:

66_Bus_Ridership_8_2_Week.png


The 66 was the highest ridership bus route in the system all three of those weeks (and now six weeks in a row), and it was the only route to average over 8,000 weekday riders each three weeks.

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The 1 bus set a COVID-era high in weekday ridership each of those three weeks:

1_Bus_Ridership_8_2_Week.png


The 1 was the second-highest ridership bus route in the system all three of those weeks, and now six weeks in a row.
 
Anyone want to bet that Delta will change the uptrend?

Plus the TSA just announced that the travel mask mandate is being extended to mid January. That's going to discourage some employers from bringing back people until then, I'd have to think.
 
jklo said:
Anyone want to bet that Delta will change the uptrend?

Plus the TSA just announced that the travel mask mandate is being extended to mid January. That's going to discourage some employers from bringing back people until then, I'd have to think.
Click to expand...

No. I disagree. Delta may indeed slow the uptrend, at worst cause a plateau, but Delta won't cause the trend to reverse. Employers who are still remote and who choose to stay (or extend) remote wouldn't cause a reversal; a reversal, rather, would need to be caused by employers who had already implemented back-to-office un-doing such a change (we're seeing very little, if any, of the latter). Meanwhile, there will be a surge when the universities reinstitute in-person in the Fall. Many universities are conscientiously persevering with this despite Delta (e.g., "we can't afford another all remote semester"). The mindset is shifting from "we can't work amidst Covid" to "ok, how can we work amidst a threat that's never going to fully go away." I am not saying that will change mindsets that are already dead-set on staying remote, but such people aren't in these MBTA numbers now anyway.

EDIT: my apologies if by "change" you mean the up-trend continues but at a slower rate
 
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Some data insights.

It's far too early to say whether Delta "will change the uptrend," but last week's rapid transit data is in. The Sa-F week of 8/7-8/13 did not match the system high in ridership attained on 8/6. No lines set COVID-era highs in fare-gated ridership between 8/7-8/13. The only thing that makes this notable is that the Red Sox were not home on 8/6, but they were home 8/10-8/13. Otherwise, going over a week between new COVID-era highs in ridership is a non-event. Last week, the system was still running at higher ridership month-over-month, as it has been each week in 2021, with the exception of the week around July 4th.

The last time we experienced a "lull" in the system-wide (and line-specific) ridership recovery that lasted longer than a week was 7/23-8/6. During that period, it took 14 days for the system as a whole or any single line to surpass its 7/22-7/23 high-water marks. That was with some great weather in between, albeit with the Red Sox on the road. We have not been increased at such a rate that it outweighs random week-to-week variation enough to expect record-breaking numbers every two weeks.

Prior to that, the last time we experienced such a stretch of rapid transit ridership ebbing was 6/26-7/10. This lull was likely caused by people taking vacations around July 4th.

Last week's bus ridership data is not in yet.

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Only two stations hit COVID-era ridership highs during last week's data week (Saturday, 8/7 through Friday, 8/13) with at least 5,000 riders in a day:
  • Kendall/MIT: two highest COVID-era ridership days were 8/11 (W) and 8/12 (Th).
    • Kendall/MIT has been the most rapidly increasing ridership station among high-ridership stations over the last two weeks.
      • Does anyone have a hypothesis? MIT summer session was ongoing during this period and first-year orientation has not yet begun. Is it simply an increase among white-collar commuters?
  • State: highest COVID-era ridership day on 8/11 (W). First 5,000 ridership day.
    • Like Kendall/MIT, is this more white-collar commuters?
 
None of the four major lines set a daily COVID-era high in fare-gated ridership from 8/7-8/27. This is the longest such stretch since October '20 through March '21, albeit with significantly higher ridership overall.

Over that three week stretch, the following stations hit COVID-era ridership highs with at least 5,000 riders in a day:
  • Harvard: three highest COVID-era ridership days were 8/25 (W) through 8/27 (F).
    • 8/27/21 was Harvard's first 8,000 rider day since 3/12/20.
    • Harvard University is back on campus this fall, much more than the last school year.
  • Kendall/MIT: six highest COVID-era ridership days were 8/11 (W), 8/12 (Th), and 8/24 (Tu) through 8/27 (F).
    • 8/26/21 and 8/27/21 were Kendall/MIT's first 6,000 rider days since 3/12/20.
    • MIT is back on campus this fall, much more than the last school year.
  • Kenmore: highest COVID-era ridership day was 8/24 (Tu).
    • Highest ridership day of the '20s to date.
    • Red Sox home game.
  • North Station: highest COVID-era ridership days were 8/26 (Th) and 8/27 (F).
    • 8/26/21 was North Station's first 8,000 rider day since 3/12/20.
    • More commuters?
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Meanwhile, bus ridership continues to increase. The week of 8/23 set a bus system high in COVID-era ridership:

MBTA_Bus_Ridership_8_23_Week.png


The five routes that set COVID-era highs with greater than 5,000 riders per weekday during a week over that three-week stretch were:
  • 66
    • The 66's highest ridership week was the week of 8/23.
    • The 66 has been the highest ridership route in the system for the last nine consecutive weeks.
  • 1
    • The 1's highest ridership week was the week of 8/9.
    • The 1 has been the second-highest ridership route in the system for the last nine consecutive weeks.
  • 39
    • The 39's three highest ridership weeks were the weeks of 8/9, 8/16, and 8/23.
    • The 39 was the third-highest ridership route on the week of 8/23: the first time the 39 has been in the top three since February 2020.
    • The E-Branch of the Green Line was suspended from 8/2 through 8/28 for track and intersection upgrades.
  • 28
    • The 28's highest ridership week was the week of 8/23.
    • The 28 has been a top-four ridership route every week of 2021 to date.
  • 57
    • The 57's three highest ridership weeks were the weeks of 8/9, 8/16, and 8/23.
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My own personal takeaway: college students are coming back and that is driving increases in student-heavy sections of the city (Harvard, Kendall/MIT, Kenmore, 66, 1, 39, 57). The rest of the system has been seeing a bit of a decrease with the rise of the delta variant.

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Note: MassDOT has corrected/edited the data for State and its highest ridership day in the COVID-era remains 8/6/21.
 
Traffic seemed pretty bad tonight (Friday) on Google Maps. Any idea of CR ridership has moved much?
 
A great question about CR’s recovery. Sorry I can’t answer.

Tonight was probably made worse by another post-Covid thing: the return of the Head of the Charles regatta (might have been unbearable if the ALCS had been in town)
 
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