My Ridership Projections...factor in Extensions , Natural growth , TOD / infill around the stations and increased service.
Current System
(Kingston) / Providence line - 28,000 (2010) > 70,000 (2030)
Greenbush line - 5,600 (2010) > 8,800 (2030)
(Milford) / Franklin line - 13,000 (2010) > 17,200 (2030)
Needham line - 8,400 (2010) > 15,000 (2030)
Fairmount line - 2,200 (2010) > 21,700 (2030)
Old Colony lines - 20,000 (2010) > 48,000 (2030)
Worcester line - 19,000 (2010) > 35,000 (2030)
(Portsmouth) Newburyport / Rockport line - 18,000 (2010) > 31,000 (2030)
(Plaistow) / Haverhill line - 10,000 (2010) > 16,900 (2030)
(Concord) / Lowell line - 12,000 (2010) > 63,000 (2030)
(Wachuetts) / Fitchburg line - 11,000 (2010) > 14,300 (2030)
Stoughton / (South Coast network) - 3,600 (2010) > 62,000 (2030)
Blue line - 67,000 (2010) > 105,000 (2030)
Red line - 179,000 (2010) > 250,000 (2030)
Orange line - 181,000 (2010) > 235,000 (2030)
Mattapan - Ashmont line - 7,600 (2010) > 13,200 (2030)
Green line - 240,000 (2010) > 320,000 (2030)
Future lines....
Blue line extension to Lynn - 25,000
Green line extension to Somerville & Union SQ - 75,000
Springfield - Battleboro line - 7,400
Quonset Branch (seasonal) - 13,000
Woonsocket line - 25,000
Cape Cod line - 16,500
I might have overestimated the Red line and the Providence line , but I stand by the rest. TOD is factored heavily into those numbers , if I can recall correctly MA doesn't have or is just starting there TOD suburban push. The T is what NJT /PATH was back in 1990 , both agencies added over 700,000 in New riders over 20 years. Yes granted that was due to NYC / Urban Jersey Job Growth , but the rest was due to a aggressive suburban TOD push which can be seen in most towns. The same is probably going to occur in your region over the next 20 years. One station on the PATH went from 20 people a during the 80s to 15,000 after the TOD was built around it , some Suburban stations went from just 300 people to almost 8,000. Suburban TOD is what has driven the growing ridership trend in this region....it might be hard to believe but its possible if you build up right. Ive seen TOD / Redevelopment plans for Quincy , Lynn , along the Fairmount corridor , Providence and Worcester.... Not all of this will be New Ridership , some will be people transferring from one line to another. Like for example Phase 1 & 2 of the Second Avenue Subway (SAS) will be used by an estimated 683,000 daily riders , but only 85,000 new riders will generated. Now with most of the future lines being commuter rail and not Urban Rail you'll see a higher New Ridership rate then when they extend the Green and Blue lines. Most of the New Ridership on those lines won't be newer T users , just current ones transferring between lines. I have a station by Station guide , thats even more crazy....i will post that later.....
Nexis4Jersey, why do you have no expansion plans for the Orange Line?
Jersey -- Transit Oriented Development - of which quite a bit exists in MA - doesn't suddenly attract people to move from Texas or Florida it just may change the way that the population is distributed at the margins
Because of the strong town structure in Massachusetts the majority of decisions made with respect to development in general and housing density are made at the town level. Many of the towns built themselves out at single family low suburban density development style. In many inner suburban towns such as Lexington,, you essentially have to buy somebody's house to be able to buy a "buildable lot"
For various reasons, this is a "slow-grow," high-cost region with immigration of foreigners just about balancing out-migration of native born citizens. See Google Public Data on population change from 1980 until 2010 (30 years) -- where the Massachusetts population went from 5.7 M to 6.5 M -- and significant amount of the increase occurred outside of the T's service area such as on the Cape
http://www.google.com/publicdata/ex...200000&hl=en&dl=en&q=massachusetts+population
Finally, unless something dramatically changes to reverse current trends respect to family size and age of the population and such - those kinds of growth in T use would require whole-sale changes in commuting patterns in less than 20 years.
For ref purposes here is some annual data taken from the T's own summaries for the Red Line daily turnstile counts for over a decade
1997 2006 2009
ALEWIFE 9409 9567 10657
DAVIS 10695 10891 11628
PORTER 7355 8089 8552
HARVARD 20212 19146 21868
CENTRAL 11736 12415 14531
KENDALL/MIT 11214 11408 13975
CHARLES/MGH 7855 8672 10615
PARK STREET 6535 6535 8237
DOWNTOWN Xing 12381 12386 11746
SOUTH STATION 20778 18826 20647
BROADWAY 3742 4115 4200
ANDREW 4646 5372 5586
JFK/U.MASS 7561 8163 7834
SAVIN HILL 1769 2004 1863
FIELDS CORNER 4697 5203 4152
SHAWMUT 1745 2196 2241
ASHMONT 8536 9799 6019
NORTH QUINCY 5955 7469 7132
WOLLASTON 4269 4493 4347
QUINCY CENTER 6426 7076 7913
QUINCY ADAMS 4477 4538 4383
BRAINTREE 3424 3159 4387
TOTAL 175417 181522 192513
I factored in Assembly SQ in my ridership projections , as for extended the line to where?
I factored in Assembly SQ in my ridership projections , as for extended the line to where?