The short answer is that they already are connected, by Rt. 24. It's not that I don't sympathize with what you are saying, but the amount of trips between SC and Boston is fairly low, a number that is better suited for bus transportation or private vehicle. Given the cost, well over $1 billion, to get rail to New Bedford and Fall River, it doesn't serve enough people to justify the level of investment. Far more could be achieved with the money if directed elsewhere. That's why BostonUrbEx is so angry about Greenbush. The amount of money spent was very high for what it achieves, particularly when there was already a valid transit option in place.
Now, before you get the wrong idea, I would very much like to see a rail connection between Boston and South Coast. But first I want to see a greater density development pattern between the two areas, so that rail is serving a more congested corridor. I envision a circumstance in which few people travel between Fall River and Boston, but perhaps many travel as far as Taunton or Stoughton. For now, the population and geography do not justify the rail investment.
It's a project that would need to be phased. Taunton...absolutely there's a transit need. 24 is hell north of 495, and 138/123 in Stoughton, Easton, and Raynham suck. The corridor is a sprawl-choked wasteland of big box stores that needs to get on the curve with sustainable planning before big box suburbia hits its permanent--accelerating--decline over escalating fuel prices limiting accessibility, range, standard of living...and, the commerce itself that they overbuilt. These areas have milked that kind of cheap-and-easy growth as far as it will get them, and have to start somewhere with integrated planning lest they slip back into economic ruin the next 15 years.
Downtown Taunton or Silver City Galleria at the 24/140 interchange definitely fits the MBTA district's focus on the 495 belt. I think that's very worthwhile to do, and the Stoughton Branch restoration is a use-it-or-lose-it proposition where completing the abandoned link between Stoughton and Route 44 Taunton opens up not only FR/NB but also Cape Cod by heading east on the old Amtrak Cape Codder route on the Middleboro Secondary. It would support a better Cape schedule than the Old Colony north of Middleboro where the single track Dorchester-Braintree and need to feed 3 lines through it hampers the max headways.
It may be painful to placate Easton, Raynham, and Taunton, but the upside of going through that grief is much higher than throwing $3/4B at a stub line to Greenbush that's speed-limited to 60 MPH, has that stupid-ass Hingham tunnel preventing a high-ridership downtown stop, and had to have tons of other niceties like expensive sound barriers and vibration controls put in...all in the name of NIMBY mitigation and political handouts.
The problem with SCR is that they are not thinking eyes-on-prize with the Stoughton Route...which is, after all, the only means of getting there with the NEC and Old Colony options spiked over fatal flaws. But they have spent 10 years doing an unprecedented pander to the towns
south of there. With those ridiculous station designs like Whale's Tooth with its waiting room bigger than North Station's. And letting the Mayor of New Bedford and Freetown--frickin' Freetown!--bend them over about extra stations, extra station amenities, etc. All the while glossing over these fatal flaws:
-- The ridership projections keep getting adjusted quietly down. It's now projected that there'd be fewer than 500 daily riders south of Taunton on each branch's schedule. Apportion that to the stations on each branch and the individual boardings at the downtown FR and NB stops would be in the neighborhood of such major southside transit centers like Auburndale, Endicott, and Bellevue.
-- Added bonus: it's not enough to cover the fuel costs for daily operation south of Taunton.
-- To save cost, secure the EIS, and ease past the NIMBY's the Stoughton route is being proposed as mostly single-track with station platforms convertible later to 2-track. This is a major problem for supporting 2 branches at full schedule; there is not enough track capacity to do it. They have left this buried deep in the fine print while they wine and dine the South Coast, and when asked responded with a flat "we'll double-track it later". If it were well-publicized what the headways would be south of Taunton, the enthusiasm would dim considerably. But as is you can see the lunacy of building a palace like Whale's Tooth. They will get service levels more befitting a bare outdoor platform with a prefab tincan shelter like Bridgewater. And while double-track will certainly be easy to add, I don't think there's cause for doing it until Cape rail is going in earnest and the Stoughton Branch has 3 destinations it can fire on all cylinders to serve + general growth on the corridor.
-- The tax structure imposed on the towns for their piece of capital cost and for joining the MBTA district is extremely punitive. And likewise buried deep in the fine print and never discussed. Not only would enthusiasm dim, but outright opposition would break out en masse. This is dishonest. It's part of the political pander, because they won't have to seriously discuss it until the build is too far along to back out of, and the Governor and local pols have expended all their political capital + 1-2 elections of reelection favors before moving on to their next jobs.
-- THEY DON'T NEED IT NOW. The express buses to Boston aren't full, and are very easy. To get critical mass they need to do route-priming here. Get those express buses transferring at Middleboro in large numbers...today. Build the line to Taunton/Silver City and get those buses doing the really easy transfer. It's so fast and 24/140 are uncongested enough south (definitely not north) of that interchange that the speed and ease will encourage a commute market to develop where there is barely one now. But then let it develop for a minimum 10-15 years, because that ridership's got to materialize somewhere. Right now it drops off a cliff at 495.
Doing it ass-backwards with the pander first south of Taunton is only getting the towns on the Stoughton Route into the act. Easton wants 100% grade separation and the state to rebuild 138. Raynham is demanding sound walls, a new firehouse, and "rail safety education for schoolchildren". Taunton wants 2 stations on either end of downtown. This is insane. These sprawl-villes are in no position to be making Hingham demands. Goddamnit, the Raynham Dog Track is going to be an empty lot within 2 years and this is their only shot at redeveloping it without giving away the farm on some tax break to build another Lowe's Home Improvement big box that'll be out of business in 10 years. Who are they to be making these kinds of demands, and who are the state for listening to them??? It's because they gave the moon to Fall River, New Bedford, and frickin' Freetown first--before the NEC and Old Colony options were eliminated--and now these Stoughton route towns now hold the fate of the whole works in their obstructionism. Perfectly, absolutely awfully played leverage by the state.
And they think the feds are going to front them a billion dollars for an entirely local commuter rail route with no national or intercity coattails. And do it as a monolithic, not phased build. They have not approached Amtrak at all about a return of the Cape Codder--which Amtrak they would like long-term--because then rehabbing the Middleboro Secondary and extending the Old Colony at full speed at least to Buzzards Bay becomes top priority, and the first--not last--branch that would be fed from the Stoughton Route. Can't have that when you're chasing swing votes and there's more swing votes to be had in FR/NB first.
RIDOT very much wants to restore commuter rail to Newport by rebuilding the Sakonnet River rail bridge, connecting to the Fall River line, and running a Providence express via Attleboro and Taunton to serve the bad 195 commute market. But they're taking the next 15 years to build their NEC commuter rail to Westerly and Woonsocket-Providence commuter rail, since that covers four-fifths of the state's population. And they have a better chance of waiting until after the Cape Codder rehabs the Middleboro Secondary. Can't have that if Patrick is chasing votes now.
There's not a lot of freight right now. MassCoastal, the shortline that took over from CSX, is doing a tidy business...even reopening the track south of downtown Fall River to almost the RI border for a major new customer. But they're mostly sitting on future considerations. The ports of FR and NB need to be dredged for deeper boats to give them heavy freight volumes. Not as expensive as it sounds, but Massport isn't going to mount that effort for another dozen years. CSX needs its interchange route to get to MassCoastal upgraded to handle heavyweight freight cars...which means track rehab on the entire Framingham Secondary from Framingham to Mansfield and the entire Middleboro Secondary from Attleboro to Middleboro before it can take anything heavy that MassCoastal sends their way. What's the Framingham Sec. upgrade dependent on if they want state money this decade for the weight increase? Foxboro commuter rail. What's the M'boro Sec. upgrade dependent on if they want that
next decade? Amtrak Cape Codder. Can't have that when you're chasing South Coast swing votes today.
They need Stoughton-Taunton to serve an immediately viable commuter market and give 24 sprawl-land a leg to stand on. They need to develop Cape transit and entice national investment in Amtrak to defray the track rehab cost. That prioritizes a Middleboro-Buzzards Bay CR extension first, Stoughton-Cape second. They need time and interim access to leverage the express buses to grow the whole South Coast transit market. They need to get the freight capacity TO the region higher...which makes Foxboro CR the path of least first resistance and highest immediate ROI (and inexpensive enough to swing while they're still paying off debt). They need to get freight demand FROM the region more robust with the port access. They need time to regroup after Stoughton's built to add that double-track. And they need to give Rhode Island a solid dozen years to complete its in-state CR rollout for them to be ready to engage on Newport, where Newport-Boston and Providence-Fall River-Newport are the value-addeds that will make the FR branch's revenue potential pay off.
This is in the lower-half of a Top 10 to-do list of jobs and phased builds they need to tackle and coordinate to make that investment worth it. They are starting with North Station-at-Whale's Tooth first. And assuming the money's gonna flow like buttah from there backwards, and people are going to be OK with the tax gotchas. This is a scam being perpetuated on the voters of that region. Nevermind the scam on the whole state that is letting the MBTA stay structurally broke without action.
Even in the lower-half of Top 10 for
that region this has nowhere near the payoff for the state as a whole of Red-Blue, Blue-Lynn, Lowell-Nashua, South Station expansion, Peabody and the missing 128 park-and-rides, and probably a couple others. Not to mention billions in state-of-good-repair to improve/increase trips and revenue on all existing lines. All the shit they refuse to do because they're pursuing this and turtling under from structural reform.
This is corruption, pure and simple. There is a lot to hate about the stench permeating this project and how disingenuous the motives are. If it
had been approached on transit instead of vote-pander grounds it probably would be built with half the cost, half the NIMBY freak show, proper engagement of other partners with vested interest in sharing the investment, and feasible project phasing. But that's not the game our pols play.