Economic & Demographic Trends: Maine & Portland

Tom Nevers said:
You might find this recent study, Maine Population Outlook 2020-2030, both interesting and surprising. It was produced by the Office of the State Economist and they are projecting meager growth in Cumberland County compared to York and Kennebec counties.

They also predict that Portland’s population will decline but warn readers, “City/town projections by necessity use a different, less robust methodology…”

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I live in Kennebec County and there are homes going up everywhere.

As an aside....here are my travel times to key towns and cities:

Waterville - 20 minutes
Augusta - 30 minutes
Belfast - 35 minutes
Bangor - 1 hour
Portland - 1 hour 30 minutes
Bar Harbor - 1 hour 45 minutes
Boston - 3 hours

Pretty centrally located.
 
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Scarborough is Maine's next boomtown. Nicer housing is being built in multiple areas, and some homes are listed for over a mill before finished (see the 1.6 mill one in the PPH article). Appealing aspects are its proximity to Boston, and all the big box stores, including Maine's first Costco on the Payne Road near the Downs location. In LA., the Costco in Marina Del Rey sells numerous wines and high-end Cognacs for up to $4,000 a bottle. The rich love Costco because of this as it's a standard 9% markup on everything. This way, you know you are getting the best deal no matter what and where you buy. The rich remain rich because they spend their money in a relatively wise manner. They will buy pricey Champagne, but only if they get the best deal (Costco).
 
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TC_zoid said:
Scarborough is Maine's next boomtown. Nicer housing is being built in multiple areas, and some homes are listed for over a mill before finished (see the 1.6 mill one in the PPH article). Appealing aspects are its proximity to Boston, and all the big box stores, including Maine's first Costco on the Payne Road near the Downs location. In LA., the Costco in Marina Del Rey sells numerous wines and high-end Cognacs for up to $4,000 a bottle. The rich love Costco because of this as it's a standard 9% markup on everything. This way, you know you are getting the best deal no matter what and where you buy. The rich remain rich because they spend their money in a relatively wise manner. They will buy pricey Champagne, but only if they get the best deal.
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"city center" construction is going to start soon too.
 
TC_zoid said:
Scarborough is Maine's next boomtown. Nicer housing is being built in multiple areas, and some homes are listed for over a mill before finished (see the 1.6 mill one in the PPH article). Appealing aspects are its proximity to Boston, and all the big box stores, including Maine's first Costco on the Payne Road near the Downs location. In LA., the Costco in Marina Del Rey sells numerous wines and high-end Cognacs for up to $4,000 a bottle. The rich love Costco because of this as it's a standard 9% markup on everything. This way, you know you are getting the best deal no matter what and where you buy. The rich remain rich because they spend their money in a relatively wise manner. They will buy pricey Champagne, but only if they get the best deal (Costco).
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Why Scarborough, and not Biddeford-Saco? The latter has heavy rail access, a two-for-one deal with twin central business districts straddling a river, a functioning sidewalk grid, a university (UNE) and is 15 minutes closer to metro Boston by car. I get that Scarborough has more greenfield opportunities, but downtown Biddo at least has a vibe/sense of place - Scarborough, not so much. The Downs will need a few decades to build out and develop a patina before it ever gets its own vibe. Fathom, Port Properties, and other Portland-area firms are building like mad in Biddo, too.

BTW this is my first post here, hello all. Just an interested urbanist/observer of the development scene in southern Maine.
 
Fitch Bronson said:
Why Scarborough, and not Biddeford-Saco? The latter has heavy rail access, a two-for-one deal with twin central business districts straddling a river, a functioning sidewalk grid, a university (UNE) and is 15 minutes closer to metro Boston by car. I get that Scarborough has more greenfield opportunities, but downtown Biddo at least has a vibe/sense of place - Scarborough, not so much. The Downs will need a few decades to build out and develop a patina before it ever gets its own vibe. Fathom, Port Properties, and other Portland-area firms are building like mad in Biddo, too.

BTW this is my first post here, hello all. Just an interested urbanist/observer of the development scene in southern Main
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I grew up in Saco and know it and Biddeford well. Scarborough is a better option, or for people who want to buy nicer homes. It's not easy to explain, except that I'm in the process of buying a piece of land in a prime area of Scarborough to do exactly that, build a nice house (spec home to sell). The rich or richer are moving to the Portland area, and Scarborough confirms this with some recent hi-end neighborhood developments. They won't live in older Maine housing stock, and I don't blame them. There are several developers currently grading areas for nicer homes. The area west of 95 and north of Broadturn Road is one, going up to Nonesuch River Golf Club.
 
Interesting story on how Maine may need to prepare for increased population growth as a result of climate migration. Hard to predict how this will all shake out, I think

www.route-fifty.com

Environment, immigrant groups say state needs to prepare for likely climate migration

The development of affordable housing stock and denser, walkable communities could help states like Maine prepare for migrants looking to move to more climate resilient areas.
www.route-fifty.com www.route-fifty.com
 
Thanks for sharing the article. This is a real thing. For my work, I've had to spend a lot of time in Houston, Texas this year. From May to September, 24/7, it is too hot and humid to do anything outside. And I am serious. A recent article I read about U.S. population estimates has an expectation that Austin, Dallas, and Houston populations will overtake and nearly double L.A., Chicago, and NYC. But I don't see that happening because of rising temperatures. Houstonians have told me that this summer has been the hottest they've seen, and I am serious that from May to Sep., and even now into October, it is too hot and humid to be outside for more than maybe ten minutes. Imagine that. In Maine, its four seasons are such pure and wonderful experiences, each different and complementary. Mainers and others need to stop complaining about the cold, because one day EVERYWHERE else will be too hot. The Portland area is seeing significant migration from wealthier families coming from D.C., Philly, and NYC (these cities will become as hot in the summer as Texas cities). They will not live in current Maine housing stock (inferior for them, and I can see why), so they are building their own. I can give many examples of this. Maine, or Southern Maine, is the future for many. Buy and hold on to land is my advice. Scarborough inland and anything near Sebago Lake at the south and southwest is gold. Sebago Lake is a massive clean water source, and so clean it is drinkable without filtration! Single family homes that are modern and upscale, high-tech, and Green are the way to go. We are talking $3 million and more. And not "mansions." Someone bought a home on Sebago Lake (eastern part) for $8 million early this year, and it was not a mansion. They have the money. Most or many are already here, visiting doing research while on "vacation." I always talk to people whenever I'm out in Portland. That's a metric on its own, what these visitors want to do as opposed to what has been done. It's kind of predicting the future simply by talking to people who are visiting. The cash that richer families have from these regions will astound you.
 
I hope that businesses develop along with Maine's increasing population. Costco in Scarborough is a start.....but it's ridiculous that we only have 1....as well as only 1 Trader Joes in the entire state.
 
mainejeff said:
I hope that businesses develop along with Maine's increasing population. Costco in Scarborough is a start.....but it's ridiculous that we only have 1....as well as only 1 Trader Joes in the entire state.
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And a Whole Foods. The titanic three for food now... Costco, Whole Foods, TJ's. It's all about Portland and its metro area. The Downeaster train spine and the easy just under two-hour drive to Boston is key. Boston is on the way to becoming the most important tech and education city in the world, if it isn't already. And watch Scarborough grow with luxury housing. It's already happening on the other side of the Interstate where Maine Medical Partners is located. I was in shock. Where did all those nice houses come from?

Good news in today's PPH...

The Downs will break ground Wednesday on a new town center at the heart of the 525-acre former racetrack property. Valued at $130 million, the first phase of town center development will include businesses, boutiques, restaurants, housing, tree-lined sidewalks, walking trails and recreational greenspace. Gov. Janet Mills and other dignitaries are expected to attend a noontime ceremony.

Portland’s Planning Board unanimously approved an affordable housing project Tuesday night that will result in the creation of 201 units in the city’s Bayside neighborhood. The 7-0 vote came after the board heard a presentation from the developers, Port Property and West Bayside Partners LLC, and a 30-minute public hearing. “I think it will work. It’s not ideal, but I think it will work,” board member David Silk said. The plan for 89 Elm St. calls for construction of an eight-story, mixed-used building with ground-level retail uses and 201 affordable dwelling units on what is currently a parking lot.

 
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The success of Market Basket in Biddo and Westbrook makes me think that the southern Maine market would be ripe for an Aldi's if we're talking about chains from away. Closest one is in Dover, NH from what I can tell. There's a big swath of western York and southern Oxford county that's essentially a food desert as it relates to access to groceries within a <30 minute drive. Biggest issue is that there's almost a complete absence of turnkey development sites on which to site any new box commercial, and I just don't see new greenfield uses like this penciling out there absent some large future population shift.
 
There is talk right now of Trader Joes moving into the old Christmas Tree Shop in SOPO/Scarborough.
 
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