Fall River/New Bedford Commuter Rail (South Coast Rail)

The viaduct is not the problem, electrification is. I would frankly consider the viaduct to be a good idea, swamps are valuable for the local ecosystem and for water storage, not to mention being prone to flooding by their very nature. Building the line higher up seems like a wise choice.
Except there's precedent there. The Greenbush Line had a very similar long swamp embankment in Scituate that was abandoned the same year (1960) as the Stoughton Line through Hock Swamp, and the Corps was absolutely fine with that one being re-used when the line was being restored from 2005-07. The most glaring thing from the South Coast Rail FEIR was that they gave absolutely no explanation for why the $50M swamp trestle was needed, and gave absolutely no explanation for why the trestle had to be single and not double-track. It was like one line in the report, and they just said it must be so. So there's two problems there....they didn't explain why they reversed precedent so soon, and they didn't explain hardly anything in general. That's where the pushback needs to be. The Corps arguably didn't satisfy a basic standard of documentation for their decisions. Same goes for why there's so much single-tracking where the swamp is not. You could *conceivably* get by running real :30 Regional Rail mainline service levels with Hock Swamp-proper being restricted to single track so long as the rest of the mainline to Myricks Jct. was DT, but we're left with that humongous gap throughout Easton and smaller gap in Raynham that don't need to be nearly as large as they are. And the Corps provided no documentation for why that must be so...they just decreed that it must be so.

That brings in the electrification canard. That has nothing to do with environmental issues, and everything to do with just how brittle the meets are going to be on all that single-track. The Phase II service plan was to have all peak Fall River trains express past Easton Village, Raynham, Downtown Taunton, and East Taunton to make time for meets with peak New Bedford trains that were all going to express past Canton Jct., Canton Center, and Stoughton. Bona fide service loss for the existing Stoughton Branch, and way sub- Regional Rail service throughout the mainline (if the peak is expanding to all-day, basically no one except North Easton Station gets adequate service levels). And despite all that expressing the peak express vs. off-peak local travel times only varied by about 2 minutes. Where does all the express time savings get lost en route?...at long pauses on passing sidings. To even make that hack-a-thon work, they had to search for a 5% reduction from the best a diesel push-pull schedule could muster...because on existing equipment the meets would be such a total clusterfuck that there was basically no hope of ever running things on-time. Enter electrification as an ass-covering measure. Any electric vehicle could cover the 5% deficit for idealized meets, so the Corps required the whole works to be electrified. Just said it must be so, no documentation as to why. Pay no attention to the fact that stock EMU's achieve a reliable 15-18% reduction in schedules from diesel P-P. 15% would've changed the meet points and created a whole slew of new single-track conflicts, so they went with an overly conservative 5% (which is kind of wimpy even for electric push-pull) because that was the one figure that would make the Corps' preordained single-track layout work on meets. In theory. If we actually adopt EMU's, we'd still see no more than 5% savings because the meets would have to be in exactly the same place to work at all. Total brokenness.

The 2013 FEIR is a hilariously (though not in a funny way) bad document. It's negligent work. It's full of holes. It has a service plan that flat-out doesn't work in the real world. It has to be burned to the ground and started anew, and held to a whole different standard of proof because the Corps abandoned its vision of producing an authoritative document that you could actually build something from. It's much more deeply flawed at way many more levels than "Why a trestle and not an embankment?"
 
So, am I the only one who sees the present craziness in DC as a possible opportunity to get the Corps decision changed on phase two through the swamp?
In a totally chaotic federal government, do you think you'd get the new decision you'd want?

The last Corps decision required a lot of problematic single-tracking, allegedly (kinda) for environmental reasons. But that made no sense, and there was probably a bunch of behind the scenes political feuding going on. Now we have an administration that doesn't care at all about environmental regulations. But they also hate public transit, they're petty and vindictive, they'll generally hate Massachusetts, and they'll act on that. Asking the Corps for a reevaluation now sounds like a gamble, at the very least. I think realistically that request would be doomed.
 
BTW...this is more like the minimum track layout for operating Regional Rail over Phase II. Triple track on the NEC Readville-Canton like is now planned, because doing this with double-track won't provide the source frequencies (it required skipping everything from Back Bay to Canton Jct. in the original FEIR to make the meets work). Double-track on the Stoughton main everywhere except the Hock Swamp embankment, and double-track at all station platforms. Then try your luck at re-modeling meets. Hopefully it all checks out and the meets clear the full-speed swamp straightaway so you aren't in a prone negotiating position with the Army Corps about doubling up that trestle. This should provide for :30 bi-directional clock-facing frequencies to East Taunton, and hourlies to each of the (un-altered) branches.
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Really, that original FEIR track chart is an abomination for how much it kneecaps service without adequate explanation as to why.
 
Really, that original FEIR track chart is an abomination for how much it kneecaps service without adequate explanation as to why.
It's not explained in the FEIR, but I'm guessing that the single-track section between Raynham Park and Taunton is because of the Pine Swamp. Building a single-track trestle through the Pine Swamp was considered but rejected back in 2013. They seem to really love single-tracking through swamps.
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As for the short section of single-track south of downtown Taunton, I'm assuming they wanted to avoid replacing the three single-track bridges over the Taunton River to save money. I have no clue why they designed so much single-track in Easton north of the Hockomock Swamp. Maybe they thought the Easton NIMBYs would find it more acceptable than double-track? Regardless, they need to fill in all of this single-track nonsense with double-track.
 
It's not explained in the FEIR, but I'm guessing that the single-track section between Raynham Park and Taunton is because of the Pine Swamp. Building a single-track trestle through the Pine Swamp was considered but rejected back in 2013. They seem to really love single-tracking through swamps.
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As for the short section of single-track south of downtown Taunton, I'm assuming they wanted to avoid replacing the three single-track bridges over the Taunton River to save money. I have no clue why they designed so much single-track in Easton north of the Hockomock Swamp. Maybe they thought the Easton NIMBYs would find it more acceptable than double-track? Regardless, they need to fill in all of this single-track nonsense with double-track.
Doubly dubious because they said they were OK with at-grade through Pine Swamp. Well...if the embankment roadbed is already double-track width what frigging difference does single-track make anyway? There's no clearance envelope constrictions, and animal species that were duly determined to not be impeded by crossing 1 track don't suddenly get impeded by crossing 2. Once again...no explanation, just a binding decree that it must be so.

Document, document, document. That's what the do-over has to prioritize if this project is to get anywhere. You can't make rational project decisions based on no evidence given. If there's going to be conditions levied that restrict the transit capacity of the project, the Army Corps must @#$% document them...the what's, the how's, and the why's. No halfway serious effort was made to even feign an interest in doing that in 2013, which is why their report is as good as garbage.
 
The schedule was just released.

The frequencies are fucking horrific. This is so much worse than I thought it would be, and my expectations were very low to begin with. We badly need Phase 2, or the Old Colony mainline needs to be double-tracked.
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The schedule was just released.

The frequencies are fucking horrific. This is so much worse than I thought it would be, and my expectations were very low to begin with. We badly need Phase 2, or the Old Colony mainline needs to be double-tracked.
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Hourly-ish on each branch? Not going to blow anyone away but it's about on par or better than most of the other far out CR branches...

I'm really interested by the meets at East Taunton. If I'm reading right, at 9:48am the inbound shuttle from Fall River arrives, then at 9:49am the outbound to Fall River arrives/depts, then at 9:56am the inbound from New Bedford arrives/depts, then at 9:58am the outbound shuttle to New Bedford departs, presumably using the equipment from the Fall River IB shuttle. So in the span of 10 minutes 4 departures (using 3 trains) at one station... It's all feasible and I wouldn't blink an eye at it in a European train schedule, that's just some delicate coordination for the MBTA. Especially with the single track just north of the station, the meets have to be at the station, a delay in any of them throws off all of them.
 
Hourly-ish on each branch? Not going to blow anyone away but it's about on par or better than most of the other far out CR branches...
Requiring a transfer at East Taunton for so many of those weekday trips is not on par with the other Commuter Rail lines. There's a lot of weird stuff about this schedule.
  • On weekdays, Fall River has a direct inbound trip at 8:22 a.m., with the next direct inbound trip not leaving until 4:41 p.m.
  • On weekends, Fall River doesn't have any arrivals until 11:25 a.m., not even a shuttle train.
  • On weekdays, New Bedford lacks a direct arrival until 4:04 p.m., requiring a transfer at East Taunton for every single outbound trip in the morning and early afternoon.
 
Requiring a transfer at East Taunton for so many of those weekday trips is not on par with the other Commuter Rail lines. There's a lot of weird stuff about this schedule.
  • On weekdays, Fall River has a direct inbound trip at 8:22 a.m., with the next direct inbound trip not leaving until 4:41 p.m.
  • On weekends, Fall River doesn't have any arrivals until 11:25 a.m., not even a shuttle train.
  • On weekdays, New Bedford lacks a direct arrival until 4:04 p.m., requiring a transfer at East Taunton for every single outbound trip in the morning and early afternoon.
A timed cross platform transfer really isn't that bad. It's new to the CR but as I said, common elsewhere in the world. If they can handle it operationally I don't think it'll be that bad from a CEX perspective.

The weekend schedule does leave something to be desired, I'm curious why there's 2 trains to New Bedford before any to FR.
 
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A timed cross platform transfer really isn't that bad. It's new the CR but as I said, common elsewhere in the world. If they can handle it operationally I don't think it'll be that bad from a CEX perspective.
A timed transfer is a pretty big issue when the schedule is ~90 minutes, especially if you have to transfer to the Red Line or walk to your destination when you get to South Station. These two lines are going to be underutilized until we get Phase 2, or the Old Colony mainline gets double-tracked through Dorchester and Quincy.
 
Some numbers and facts:
  • 16 weekday RT between East Taunton and Boston, up from the current 14 between M/L and Boston
    • A handful of weekday trains don't have connecting shuttles: one early-morning train from each terminal, an AM peak Fall River inbound, and a PM outbound to each terminal.
    • Fall River gets 5 direct and 10 transfer inbound, and 10 direct / 6 transfer outbound. New Bedford gets 11 direct / 3 transfer inbound and 6 direct / 9 transfer outbound
  • 13 weekend RT, up from the current 10
    • Strangely, there are almost no shuttles, vastly reducing frequency to the terminals.
    • New Bedford gets 7 inbound / 8 outbound; Fall River gets 6 inbound and 5 outbound plus an outbound shuttle
  • Weekend and weekday direct schedules are very similar, except for the earliest/latest trains and some peak service
  • Scheduled transfer times are between 4 and 10 minutes, mostly between 5 and 8. (There is one 23-minute transfer for a 7:07 pm weekday inbound from New Bedford.)
  • Reverse commuting to Fall River and New Bedford is not easy. The first outbound arrives at each at 8:34, and there are no inbounds between 5 and 6 pm.
  • Direct inbound trips are 89-101 minutes from Fall River (92 typical), and 94-107 from New Bedford (95 typical). Outbound direct trips are 93-109 minutes to Fall River (98 typical) and 93-101 to New Bedford (95 typical). That corresponds to average speeds (including stops) in the 34-38 mph range. Trips that include a transfer are typically in the 32-35 mph range.
 
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  • The majority of meets south of Braintree are at Brockton, East Taunton, and Myricks. There are a handful of meets at Braintree, at the siding just west of Middleborough, and at the siding between Montello and Bridgewater. On the branches, there are a few meets at the siding north of New Bedford and south of Freetown.
  • There are going to be some very tricky meets at East Taunton. For much of the day, you have a northbound shuttle arrive, a southbound through arrive/depart, a northbound through arrive/depart, and a southbound shuttle depart in a 15-minute timespan. That also means that transfer passengers in both directions will be on the platform at the same time - I hope there aren't too many that get on the wrong train.
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  • It looks like base service requires 5 sets, plus 2 sets that only make a single peak-direction round trip. Three sets based in New Bedford, four in Fall River. Relatively few deadheads needed - just 2 early-morning deadheads from East Taunton to the terminals, and 2 late-night from the terminals to East Taunton. (This is of course all speculation based on the schedule.) Current Middleborough/Lakeville service appears to require 3 sets.
    • Per the NETransit roster, existing service requires 62 of 89 active locomotives and 348 of 449 active coaches (including 95 active cab cars). An additional 4 locomotives and ~24 coaches would leave a 25% spare ratio for locomotives and 17% for coaches. FWIW, in November 2019 peak service required 65/91 locomotives (29% spare) and 367/417 coaches (14% spare).
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Also attached is a ZIP file with the Excel document I used for these graphs. I'll get to plotting weekend service later this week.
 

Attachments

  • SCR initial schedule.zip
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Has the FRA given the final go-ahead for South Coast Rail yet? March 24 is only a week away...
 

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