Alright, so here's a reasonable transit pitch to enhance SCR: allocate one additional trainset, and double frequencies to each branch by coordinating a timed transfer in East Taunton.
Now, before you go grab your throwing vegetables, let me be clear that timed transfers suck. Nobody likes settling into a seat for 25 minutes, and then schlepping back out into the cold/rain/snow/heat to board another train, settling into another seat for 65 minutes, and then trekking into the subway for one last leg of the journey.
But this whole situation very clearly sucks. A colleague once told me (about another situation), "This is like being given chicken shit and being told to make chicken salad." I'm not saying that a timed transfer is a good thing. But I'm raising the possibility that it might be preferable to the alternative.
The Phase 1 proposal calls for 6 trains to/from the South Coast during each peak period -- 3 from New Bedford, 3 from Fall River. Now, first of all, let's compare how many inbound peak trains cities of similar size had before covid:
- Lowell: 8
- Brockton: 5
- Lynn: 8
- Lawrence: 5
Historically, 5 inbound peak trains has been the minimum on branches going to cities. Greenbush and Kingston usually had 4.
The
most recent DSEIR proposes 70-min headways on each branch (page 2-48) but does so basically just by extending the then-current Middleboro schedule. We know from the current clock-facing schedules that the
Braintree-South Station stretch can definitely accommodate three inbound trains per hour. In the past, we know that the T was able to swing 13 inbound trains arriving between 6:15am and 9:15am, though trains would skip random stops in Red Line territory. 13 inbound trains during those three hours means that Braintree-South Station could in fact accommodate four inbound trains per hour.
If we extend our definition of rush hour by 15 minutes, we get one more slot, which allows us to fit 6 South Coast trains, 4 Kingston trains, and 4 Greenbush trains arriving from 6:00am to 9:15am.
So maybe the schedule would look like this:
| 040 | 070 | 002 | 042 | 004 | 072 | 006 | 044 | 008 | 074 | 010 | 046 | 012 | 076 |
|---|
Greenbush | | 5:15 | | | | 6:15 | | | | 7:15 | | | | 8:15 |
Kingston | 5:00 | - | | 5:45 | | - | | 6:45 | | - | | 7:45 | | - |
Fall River | - | - | 5:00 | - | - | - | 6:00 | - | - | - | 7:00 | - | - | - |
New Bedford | - | - | - | - | 5:30 | - | - | - | 6:30 | - | - | - | 7:30 | - |
Middleboro | - | - | 5:30 | - | 6:00 | - | 6:30 | - | 7:00 | - | 7:30 | - | 8:00 | - |
Boston | 6:00 | 6:15 | 6:30 | 6:45 | 7:00 | 7:15 | 7:30 | 7:45 | 8:00 | 8:15 | 8:30 | 8:45 | 9:00 | 9:15 |
The upside here is that all termini enjoy hourly departures, no earlier than 5am and arriving no later than 9:15am. The downside is that, because of the extra long journey, Fall River and New Bedford each get one fewer morning train: with the 15-minute slots, you either need to leave super early (i.e. before 5am) or arrive after 9:15. So that means 3 trains per peak, rather than the 4 trains enjoyed by (the much less populated) Kingston and Greenbush. (It also means that the latest peak train to depart Fall River leaves at 7am, which is still quite early.)
Fall River and New Bedford are both about the size of Brockton and Lynn. Lynn currently enjoys 30-minute headways, as would Brockton under the above schedule, both very rightly so. Yet Fall River and New Bedford would be saddled with 60-minute headways, and the fewest number of peak trains in the system.
Now, a timed transfer in Taunton would suck, to be clear. But it would enable 6 peak period transit departures from each city, at 30-minute headways, and, based on the DSEIR's own analysis (
page 2-15, in discussion of a transfer at a rebuilt Bridgewater), would only add 5 minutes to the total journey time. Moreover, the proposed East Taunton station sits on a two-track segment and will have an island platform, enabling a direct cross-platform transfer (
page 2-43):
Additionally, the availability of the shuttle train may increase operational reliability and flexibility: instead of having to wait for a set to return from Boston, there will be another set available much closer. Furthermore, the DSEIR notes (as seen in my addendum below) that several single-level coaches will need to be replaced with bi-levels. Those singles could be reallocated to the shuttle train. (As I read the DSEIR, it does not otherwise suggest uses for those coaches.)
We know that a forced transfer was panned in public feedback meetings. So, like I said, we know that this isn't a fantastic idea. But there would still be a one-seat ride available every hour, with the added knowledge that missing your train means a delay of 30 minutes, rather than a whole hour.
Addendum: Okay, after all that, I found a proposed schedule
buried in the DSEIR, on page 2-55.
In my read-through of the report, I couldn't find any justification for the ~70-minute headways. Like I said, I think all they did was extend the existing Middleboro schedule, and add an extra trip in between the 5:20 and 6:00 departures.
So, there's no reason why we can't apply a regular clock-facing schedule to the South Coast Rail extension, providing regular 60-minute headways to Fall River and New Bedford, and then 30-minute headways to Taunton and north. Add in a shuttle and timed transfer, and you have sub-100-minute journeys to Boston available every 30 minutes.
Post-script: and if anyone is wondering why SCR Phase 1 makes one-seat Commuter Rail to Bourne basically impossible until Phase 2 is built, check out that schedule grid I put together above. No trains available to extend to Bourne, and each branch already contending with 1 hour peak headways.
