Logan Flight Additions

Massachoicetts

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Current Trajectory throws Logan with a current 4.5% growth in passengers this year. Take into account DL and B6 expansions, we probably go up to about 6%. Take into account WN downsizes, we head off back to about 4-5%. SO I think 2019 will see a 4.5% growth in passengers in comparison to 2018, putting it at a comfortable 42,800,000 passengers for 2019. I think 2020 will see better increases as the 737 Max wil be put back into service (hopefully) and we get a full year of what seems to be DL and B6 growth. I wouldnt be surprised if 2020 sees over 7% growth altogether. I could see up to 46.5 million pax travelling through Logan in 2020, and 49 million by 2021 and 51 million by 2022. DL hub growth and B6 increases are going to bring in a lot of new service and connections too, so keep that in mind. Boston will become slightly less OD overall. Would love to see Logan pass the 50 million mark by 2022... but honestly could see it anytime from 2021-2023. With E growth and expansions, Logan could handle another 2-3 million passenegrs before it maxes out what it has.

I wouldnt say its completely out of the question to say Logan could handle 55 million by 2025, Granted theres no recession.. if there is add 2-5 more years to that.

However for BOS to pass MCO, SEA and LAS (Which hold the bottom of the top 10 list) is absurd. I cannot see BOS surpassing any of those airports. CLT? MIA? EWR? PHX? Sure. But there would have to be something explosionary to propell BOS into the top 10. If someone asked where I think BOS would rank in 2025, id throw my best guess at #12. But going 16-->12 is half the work going from 12-->10.
 

Massachoicetts

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Interesting article on American Airlines continued downsizing at Logan.
Really sad for AA to downsize that much at BOS. Pre US merger it had just 32-34 Flights a day (4x JFK, 4x LAX, 7-8x DFW, 7-8x MIA, 8-9x ORD). Sad. Down from 130+ in 2005 which included flights to MAN, 2xLHR, CDG year round, SAN, BWI, SJC, SFO, STL, SJU, *A Seasonal LIM* ... Crazy. AA states most of its BOS operations were very profitable., but cornerstone was more important to them. So.. their BOS demise is there own fault because prior to 2008, they owned BOS. Now their 3rd wheeling and not really doing much in a market that is basically throwing out free money for airlines to bank on gearing towards the market AA holds. Id say AA business pax in BOS has cut 1/2 since 08, while DL and jetBlue have all exploded. AA should try investing been in the markets that have been proven to be successful for them (Why not go back 2x Daily SFO? Profits were crazy! Or BOS-SJC/RDU... those flight loads were high and profits were also amazing), instead of watching themselves shrivel in a market they still have a lot of loyalty and trust in. I fly AA 80% of the time, and il fly jetBlue the other 15-20 flights a year I take, and I am truly disappointed with AA's casual demise.. although jetBlue's product is better, I feel betrayed by AA in a way.


AA's Cornerstone Strategy: The strategy AA used from 2007-2014,in which they closed most Point 2 Point routes and routes from secondary hubs in exchange to make their "Cornerstone" Hubs, LAX, MIA, JFK, ORD and DFW stronger. So in that time, STL (Although very unprofitable in AA Metal unlike TWA), SJU, BOS and RDU lost secondary hub/focus/significant point to point routes.. in exchange they strengthened their cornerstone hubs. This is why BOS dropped from 130+ flights to 32 a day. They thought even though they closed profitable routes, they could make more money routing the flights to their cornerstone hubs. While I cant test the validity of this claim, most highly believe that STL and SJU routes ran very unprofitable (SJU for other reasons than STL)... while BOS, RDU 00's cuts weren't very justified. American Airlines merged with US Airways in 2014 and gained more P2P routes especially from PIT and BOS, which ultimately saw some cuts (ie. STL-PIT, BOS-PIT, BOS-BUF, BOS-CDG, etc). Since then, there has been very little cuts but AA over the past year seems to want to reverse the cornerstone in some way. BOS-NAS/PLS have been announced, though small, are something.

In the future? I see AA Stengthening from DFW, PHL and ORD at significant levels. I do think AA will cut slightly from JFK and PHX. Possibly.. I could see some minor expansions in p2p as well.
 
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jass

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AA is such a badly run company. Its for the best that theyre not strong in Boston. Being captive to them would be horrible.

Being a Delta-Jetblue-Southwest city is optimal.
 

mass88

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AA establishing a hub, or focus city, would have come at the cost of what Delta has been doing as of late. Boston doesn't benefit from its geography in the way say Denver does. In Denver you have 3 airlines with hubs - it's located nicely for connecting traffic and you can drive 5 hours in any direction from Denver and only Colorado Springs has an airport with any level of decent service. From Boston you would hit Manchester, Portland, Providence, Hartford, LaGuardia, JFK and Newark.

Despite AA retreating to only serving its hubs (and Harrisburg), OneWorld is still pretty strong in Boston. Japan Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Qatar, LATAM, Royal Air Maroc (joining Oneworld next year), British Airways and Iberia all serve Boston year round and non-stop.
 

stefal

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AA establishing a hub, or focus city, would have come at the cost of what Delta has been doing as of late. Boston doesn't benefit from its geography in the way say Denver does. In Denver you have 3 airlines with hubs - it's located nicely for connecting traffic and you can drive 5 hours in any direction from Denver and only Colorado Springs has an airport with any level of decent service. From Boston you would hit Manchester, Portland, Providence, Hartford, LaGuardia, JFK and Newark.

Despite AA retreating to only serving its hubs (and Harrisburg), OneWorld is still pretty strong in Boston. Japan Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Qatar, LATAM, Royal Air Maroc (joining Oneworld next year), British Airways and Iberia all serve Boston year round and non-stop.
Boston serves well as a hub for international connections in its proximity to European markets. JFK and Newark (add in LGA Air traffic) are far too busy to handle the increase in international flights to/from Europe. Add in the competition between Jet Blue and Delta for lucrative flights and it makes perfect sense why Boston's become a hub. AA just does it differently, which, as stated above, is a result from how poorly the company is run.
 

HelloBostonHi

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I have no numbers to back this up but Logan has a ton of foreign carriers flying into it and really benefits from that. Like sure AA doesn't have a hub presence but there are still British Airways and Aer Lingus, quatar, Cathay Pacific etc connections (OneWorld) to be made here when flying American. A place like Denver has none of that, Boston has a great foreign airline presence
 

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Delta adding Rome and second daily to a Paris next summer.


And confirmed on delta.com
 

HelloBostonHi

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Thomas Cook, an ex-Logan air carrier has completely folded today. Sad news, they were the first flight I took to Logan. Definitely opens up some opportunities for American air carriers to get in on the Manchester UK market which was the Thomas Cook central hub, at their peak they had flights to JFK, BOS and a couple west coast airports from MAN. As far as I'm aware, Delta/Virgin is now the only one covering Manchester from BOS.
 

kmp1284

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Thomas Cook, an ex-Logan air carrier has completely folded today. Sad news, they were the first flight I took to Logan. Definitely opens up some opportunities for American air carriers to get in on the Manchester UK market which was the Thomas Cook central hub, at their peak they had flights to JFK, BOS and a couple west coast airports from MAN. As far as I'm aware, Delta/Virgin is now the only one covering Manchester from BOS.
One airline is probably adequate for Manchester.
 

Lrfox

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Delta adding Rome and second daily to a Paris next summer.


And confirmed on delta.com
This is good news. I'm intrigued by the FCO addition. FCO is currently served out of BOS by two airlines that have been in fairly deep trouble in recent years - SkyTeam partner Alitalia and Norwegian. It's not the first city DL has shared with a partner (LHR, CDG, AMS, etc.), but to my knowledge it's the first time it's entered the market of a struggling partner.
 

mass88

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Per Delta, the service periods for both Lisbon and Edinburgh will be longer in summer 2020 than they were this past summer. Delta is going to have a nice network to Europe next summer.

London Heathrow
London Gatwick
Manchester
Edinburgh
Dublin
Lisbon
Amsterdam twice daily
Paris Charles de Gaulle twice daily
Rome
 

Massachoicetts

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mass88

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Next Best Bets for the next 2-3 years.

Athens (seasonal)
Barcelona (seasonal)
Berlin (seasonal)
Brussels
Madrid
Milan (seasonal)
Munich (seasonal)
Ponta Delgada (Seasonal, shift from JFK)
Tel Aviv
Vienna (Seasonal)
You'd need to see some kind of expansion for Delta over on their side of the airport. Even with the upcoming terminal E expansion, I can't see how Delta would be able to operate over 20 peak European flights with their current setup. Summer 2020, they will be at 11 flights and it'll be interesting to see how they manage it all.
 

Massachoicetts

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You'd need to see some kind of expansion for Delta over on their side of the airport. Even with the upcoming terminal E expansion, I can't see how Delta would be able to operate over 20 peak European flights with their current setup. Summer 2020, they will be at 11 flights and it'll be interesting to see how they manage it all.
Very true... im just throwing out viable suggestions. It will be very interesting to see what DL does for expansion in the coming years. My best guess is expanding the satellite southward and relocating some of the cargo down there. They don't have many options, but thats one. I guess another option would be to get rid of 14/32 and do some stuff down there. Could add 30 new gates down there potentially.
 

stefal

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DL has no intentions of physical expansion in the coming years, and they're barely changing how they operate, even with all the recent additional flights. Currently, you have one minor delay and it causes a domino effect on the entire terminal for several hours. Will be interesting to see how they function in the coming years.
 

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