I can drive to Montreal in 5 hours. I've been seeing tons of Tweets about the retiring of the InterCity 125 fleet in the UK this week. They had 125 MPH top speeds back in 1975! I LOVE the train, but spending 3 extra hours vs. the car is not a way to push train travel in my opinion. The goal should be 4 hours or less between Boston and Montreal.
Well...what time of day can you do 5 hrs. to Montreal? If it's 93/89 you're going you sure as hell aren't making that time leaving after work on a Friday such that you can check into a MTL hotel room in time to get a full nights' sleep. And also not making that time if the Customs stop at the border on 89 happens to be backed up with cars because it's a holiday weekend. The schedule certainty of the train is the selling point for Amtrak's biz traveler-skewed marketing focus...the folks who are putting this trip on an expense report rather than writing it off themselves. Obviously the college kids and weekenders-on-the-cheap are going to go with the cheaper bus because it's a more downmarket audience with more scheduling flexibility to travel when the highways in Eastern MA and Southern NH aren't as loaded.
Second, the study had to omit any projected improvements across the border because that's another country's problem to solve. Track is dog-ass slow from Cantic, QUE where the NECR Central VT line joins the
Adirondack to St. Jean-sur-Richelieu...like 25 MPH max because CN just doesn't give a shit about the
Adirondack. Once the
Adirondack switches off the faster CP mainline at Rouses Point it loses 35 MPH instantaneously. Track is marginally faster better but way crappier than it should be between St. Jean and the intermediate stop at St. Lambert. In all it takes 3:06 to travel intra-Canada on the
Adirondack over only 47 miles of track...an unbelievably fourth-world 15 MPH average. St. Albans to Gare Central (69 miles) used to be 3:00 even on the 1990
Montrealer schedule...a little faster on the Central VT trackage but went to spit all the same after joining up with the
Adirondack at Cantic.
For starters, the Customs layover and the St. Lambert intermediate are going away the second Custom preclearance opens at Gare Central; the
Adirondack will begin running 'sealed' from Rouses Point, NY to Gare Central at instantaneous 1 hr. savings from the excruciating layover today. Quebec Province is also promising generous track upgrades to attract the
Montrealer back. Consistent Class 3/60 MPH on the CN Rouses Point Sub. and the connecting branch between St. Jean and St. Lambert...a pretty low performance target given that we're talking Class 4/80 MPH south of the border...is worth at least an hour unto itself. If they cared to make it rote-consistent with track class Springfield to St. Albans you'd be getting more still, but for all the hype the Trudeau Admin. has been awfully soft on putting money where its mouth is so expectations are best kept lowish.
Real-world target you're looking at is more in the 6+ hour range, which is definitely competitive with the car trip after you start zeroing out the timeslots where traffic is bad. As with the Inlands, they are not trying to beat the express buses in a horserace. It's the combination of AMTK-standard business class experience and the scheduling certainty that any time of day it's run will net the same travel time that ends up carving out the revenue margins for the rail mode.