RE: Foxboro...the trial has had the unfortunate effect of cratering Franklin Line OTP into the mid-70's% from the schedule rejiggering and also trying to triage PTC installation work around perpetually late schedules. The reduction of trains stopping at Walpole has also had direct negative effect at inducing extreme parking overcrowding at Norwood Central and "full lot" signs many days, as the diverted Walpole trips unfortunately landed on slots where parking utilization crests to daily peaks. That's reducing Norwood's ridership by capping it the days the P'nR overfills way too early. All of this, plus general lack of promotion, has blunted a lot of would-be encouraged utilization of Foxboro.
#1...it's way too early to evaluate the station's performance vs. trial targets as they've got a whole lot of troubleshooting to do with the mainline scheduling first to stabilize the works. Right now the wretched OTP and direct conflicts in Pn'R capacity at peak are clobbering the monster Norword and Walpole catchments to each other's demerit, and that's Problem #1 to address before worrying about the end of the line. Foxboro's getting diminishing-returns service by the induced instability inbound, and that's taking a predictably oversized cut of the momentum away from the pilot. Fish that OTP out of the gutter by tweaking the schedule to avoid bad-luck conflicts. Then schedule around the car-count surges at the Norwood and Walpole lots so the
specific selection of dropped Walpole trips isn't sending a carpocalypse to Norwood that turns riders away. If the Walpole v. Norwood scramble and late trains are no longer sucking the oxygen out of commuters' decision-making,
then Foxboro has some actual room to draw first-time users. Today you aren't netting that initial "maybe I'll try Foxboro today and see how it works" curiosity because all these other problems are too much more important. Those 70 daily riders are probably today overrepresented by people more hyper-local to Foxboro or who have prior knowledge of that platform from the Game Train...and not so much by the diverted Pn'R trips they were hoping for. You need to clear out some of the outright
worries that are clogging rider bandwidth before the curiosity bait has any chance to work.
It's not over by a longshot. These are fixable issues they can address in the next schedule revision. Though I'm curious to see what gets presented to the FCMB on
which rush slots are causing all the overflow problems at Norwood Central, because the options for swapping Walpole-skip slots probably aren't all that diverse. The pilot ridership target for F'boro is
210 daily, which is worth reiterating because in scale this bears
no resemblance to other trials like bus late night. That's a flat-out wretched example to use for trying to pound a "why did they do X when they weren't willing to do Y" into a total flat-world comparison. If these mainline problems have prevented most of the load diversions from ever happening in the first place, making up the +140 difference to farebox recovery target isn't a big hurdle because to the real-world commuter this trial hasn't for-real started yet until they stabilize the schedules and stabilize Norwood capacity. 210 is just a proof-of-concept target for what the station can attract on a limited schedule with Walpole being a diversionary target. In the real world what they're predicating the full-build Foxboro up/down decision on from those vital signs is:
- doubling mainline service to Walpole and what exponential effect that has on mainline ridership
- having Walpole featured on all 36 daily round-trips and what exponential effect that has on station ridership
- being able to backfill Foxboro-diverted mainline P'nR loads at Walpole+NC with brand new ridership (incl. bus shuttle service to Walpole from places like Medfield/Millis), and how much additional draw that brings. That is, Walpole's catchment can skew further north into under-served communities if its lot capacity were freed from some 495 load.
- what giving Foxboro the full contingent of Kraft-land TOD public-private frills does to top off that stop's ridership, since the existing parking capacity + parking management starts it off with a very low farebox recovery target. If 210 is a stable break-even on the limited trial, then 500+ post- mainline load-shifting is the healthy revenue target for 18 dedicated round trips (the official feasibility study ranges it as high as 990/daily if Kraft opens up more of the parking capacity and encourages some bus drop-offs @ Patriot Place, so the 'gravy' potential past break-even is also high if the private side of the coin steps up).
So we're about 140 riders of post-tweak gains away from satisfying all those feasibility metrics. Low target considering all the stubbed toes out the gate with these scheduling problems. Fix the schedule to stability and start a re-promotion effort from there and that ground is easily made up during calendar year 2020. Yeah, it's unfortunate there's been some harm to mainline service...but trial starts do have that inherent uncertainty to them. Efficacy of the trial isn't based on what it looked like after Day 1 or Month 1, but rather after they show their ability to make first-wave adjustments.
EDIT: And not surprisingly a new
"Franklin Line Working Group" is now convening public meetings to troubleshoot the OTP plunge and other unintended side effects in hopes of getting a corrective schedule change enacted.