Nervous? No. Uncertain? Yes. Same as I am with Carmona. That's not "using my logic." My logic was that one 8 inning shutout versus the Red Sox is less than enough to gauge how Carmona will do in another start. I never said that Carmona would do badly, just that we don't KNOW how he will do. The unproven playoff argument was more a side-note to the argument that he is unproven against the Sox. Yes, his win was a convincing win. Yes, I do not want to face him. But in the end, any starter you face in the playoffs is a relatively good pitcher: pick your poison. You take my argument the way you need to take it to have a counterargument. I never said Carmona would pitch poorly, just that he's untested -- and it makes me a little less nervous about him repeating his shutout. That doesn't mean that every player who has never pitched in a postseason game will do lousy. It's different though. More pressure. The fans scream louder. The media asks tougher questions. It's colder. Every game is a proverbial "must-win." The national television requires more time between innings for more commercials, coupled with the colder weather could create problems. There are many more variables than your average season game that he has not been through, and how he handles it is how well he pitches. Everyone has to deal with these situations, but those who have been through it already -- at the very least -- know what to expect.
Pedro Martinez. 2003. 14-4, 2.22 ERA. Postseason: 4.80 ERA in 4 starts.
Johan Santana. 2003. 12-3, 3.07 ERA. Postseason: 7.04 ERA in 2 starts.
Latroy Hawkins. 2003. 9-3, 1.86 ERA. Postseason: 6.00 ERA in 3 games.
Jose Contreras. 2003. 7-2, 3.30 ERA. Postseason: 5.73 ERA in 8 games.
Carlos Zambrano. 2003. 13-11, 3.11 ERA. Postseason: 5.40 ERA in 3 starts.
Kyle Farnsworth. 2003. 3-2, 3.30 ERA. Postseason: 6.75 ERA in 8 games.
Mark Guthrie. 2003. 2-3, 2.74 ERA. Postseason: 16.20 ERA in 3 games.
Dontrelle Willis. 2003. 14-6, 3.30 ERA. Postseason: 8.53 ERA in 2 starts and 6 relief appearances.
Mark Redman. 2003. 14-9, 3.59 ERA. Postseason: 6.50 ERA in 4 starts.
Joe Nathan. 2003. 12-4, 2.96 ERA. Postseason: 81.01 ERA in 2 games.
That's just one postseason -- the first one I found online. Obviously these are some of the most extreme examples. But even I was surprised to find out how many guys with sub- 3.50 ERA's did "poorly" (posting >4.50 ERA but not badly enough to make my list -- the only reason Pedro is on this list with his sub-5.00 postseason ERA is because his unbelievably low season ERA).
Dontrelle Willis is probably the best example, as his season is somewhat similar to Carmona's in terms of point in his career.
Now feel free to rip apart this entire post, it's what you would have done no matter what I wrote anyway. I'll start for you: "well those are just SOME of the pitching performances. I didn't say that ALL pitchers stay the same in the playoffs, plus they're playing better teams."
the only point to anything I've said in this thread is to say that I believe the Red Sox have as good a chance as anyone to make the World Series. No matter how many holes you can find on the Red Sox team, there are just as many in the other three AL playoff teams. And the only point in bringing up Manny being injured is to say that he helps the team when he is playing, and doesn't when he is not. All signs point to that he WILL be playing in the postseason, so to say that the Red Sox team looked like they were not World Series bound during a period when he was not playing is shortsighted. I'm not saying injuries are not part of the game, I'm saying that there was an injury, and now (playoffs) there isn't. The whole mathematical thing in terms of telling how many games the Red Sox would have won with Manny was more just me humoring myself to say that the Sox would probably have been AL East champs 4 days ago had he never gotten injured.
But I digress. I'll just enjoy watching the Red Sox for the next month, no matter what happens. Enjoy ripping this post to shreds, I won't be replying.