Hehe. You appear to be replying to a reply of something
I wrote three years ago. Time flies. I still think it's a shame the RLX will skip East Arlington, but also, trying to include a station there only leaves bad options. What you have here is probably best among bad options.
Just thinking it though: I've seen a really rough heuristic of allowing ~$100,000 per new, daily ride for transit projects (which is probably generously high).
@The EGE eyeballs the added cost for tunneling as low as ~250M-500 (which is definitely generously low). That would mean the station at Mass and Lake would need to induce ~2,500-5,000 new rides per day. About 8000 people live within a half mile, so you'd need ~15-30% of them taking two rides a day (one inbound, one outbound). That's extremely back-of-the-envelope math, with every assumption tilted in your favor, and skipping tons of nuance. But the result isn't
outlandish. I think it's hard to confidently reject as a bad idea just eyeballing it. But I also doubt a cost-benefit-analysis would hold up when you start plugging in even slightly less favorable numbers.
That's also ignoring that you'd drop Alewife, which already has 11k boardings per day. If there were a CR stop, and real Regional Rail frequencies, and a NSRL, then it would make a lot more sense. So what comes first, NSRL or RLX? <shrug>
I agree with basically everything in your list, and probably your conclusion. But here, the benefit of an East Arlington station is residential density. It's surrounded by duplexes on small lots, which makes it fair bit denser than any other part of Arlington. There are some numbers in
my post from years ago. It's denser than either of the other two proposed stops. And it's not like there's
no business there. There are shops, a library, schools, a historic theater. It's not nothing. It would absolutely be a station as well used as the other in Arlington. It's just a question of the cost of not following the Minuteman.
That's certainly possible. I wrote before, even putting an East Arlington station on the Minuteman at Lake Street probably has a better residential catchment than central Arlington. But also, putting a station a 1/4 mile from where it ought to be is really a problem. It makes transit less convenient, so people use it less. Shawmut is less than 1/4 miles from Dot Ave. and it's a worse station because of it. In this specific case in Arlington, 1/4 miles to west moves the catchment area to include a lot more highway and Spy Pond, but away from Broadway, where people actually live. It is also possible to have
some but service on Mass Ave, but Lake Street, not so much.