Re: Amtrak / Regional Rail Discussion Thread
Keep in mind that the new Berkshire Flyer would be used primarily by downstate residents to reach their country homes. So it's not like NYS wouldn't be pissing away money for another state.
Very true. And that's why they enthusiastically support the Ethan Allen Express; that's a New Yorker getaway train more than it is Vermont's. But the equipment crunch is very real.
- Doing a Pittsfield turn requires running in push-pull mode with a cab car, because there's no wye anywhere near Pittsfield for changing directions. The reverse at Albany-Rensselaer Station from the Hudson Line onto the B&A-connecting Post Road Branch is easily doable because they can use that occasion to detach the dual-mode loco from the front and attach the straight diesel to the back (and vice versa). But the nearest turnback to Pittsfield is...Springfield.
The only cab cars on Amtrak that will fit into Penn Station are the Metroliners, of which only 17 are available with most gobbled up by the Keystone route. Worse, the Ethan Allen has already claimed one of these scarce bodies for its Burlington extension...so the chances of being able to bum another for the Empire pool are especially poor until new cab cars are produced. The next-gen equipment order will substantially expand the cab roster, but since nationally-owned Northeast Regional stock is first up for replacement it won't be until the backside with the statie orders where the first cabs will appear...and PennDOT will probably get all the first ones for those lucrative Keystone assignments because the Metroliners are the single oldest cars left on Amtrak. We may see a situation where there's a very large surplus of Amfleet I coaches displaced from the Regionals...and it wouldn't matter one bit for this train because there's still years to wait for more cab cars.
- The only other alternative to cabs is to run double-ended, which means the dual-mode will have to stay attached for the full run from Penn while wasting a straight diesel in Albany for the other end. The Genesis P32AC-DM duals are aging and having steadily increasing reliability problems, while their numbers are threadbare for covering the Empire essentials. They get swapped at Albany for straight diesels so they can get sent right back down to NYC to inflate their thin numbers up to a level that'll support the schedule. It is very unlikely that NYSDOT would risk letting a new route vulture one of their duals past Albany because it stretches their reserves to untenable levels. Unfortunately, without a solve for the cab car shortage you need them to agree to exactly that in order to turn around in Pittsfield at all.
The procurement for next-gen duals is a monster order: same third rail dual for the Empire, LIRR, and Metro North branch service @ 75-90 units total. Most likely based on the Siemens Charger diesel and Siemens Sprinter electric. Triple-agency bureaucracy and triple-agency pilot testing before they can start cranking out production units. This is easily a 7-year saga, since the state has spent more time fighting amongst itself than appropriating funds for this.
This isn't an everlasting condition. All of the necessary new equipment will be cued up and in production soon, and the Empire will be flush enough that new route options will be considered. NY & VT already have bullish dreams for an Albany-North Bennington-Rutland train serving VT's Lower Western Corridor, meeting the Ethan Allen Express in Rutland (and perhaps taking over the Burlington leg from the EAE). Easterly pokes into MA would definitely be fair game.
But it's not state-on-state turf warrage to say that equipment is going to be dreadfully difficult to find for this in the next 5 years. Cab cars are so devastatingly few NYSDOT might not even be able to get another one if it arm-twisted, since it already went to that well once to secure one for the EAE-Burlington extension. There's no solution for the duals, since procurement for a new and very complex product will be a full 5+ year wait while the current fleet's reliability rapidly fades. Short-term component renewal of the Genesis duals is expected, but that means that virtually all their cushion will be rotated into the shop for 5-year band-aid life extensions instead of being made available for other services. So if they manage to get a cab car, they might be able to live within the power reserves of an Empire Albany short-turn by engine-swapping to a straight diesel for the Pittsfield leg. But it they have to run double-ended...forget it as long as the Genesis units have to hold up. They can't afford to let any units escape the Penn/Sunnyside-Albany orbit lest one crap-out pushes them to the end of their reserves.
A five-year plan would've been much more reasonable. Or some step-ups from bus to train so there's certainty the season service starts are to commence. This whole "by 2020" over-promising by Berkshire pols is just going to end up killing it faster because those logistical barriers to finding equipment (and reliance on other states really really desperate for equipment) is just going to turn this into a kick-the-can game each year they can't make good on their own prognosticating. There's no need for them to set themselves up for taking wind out of this thing's sails. 2025--6 years from now--all the necessary equipment will be in-progress on delivery guaranteeing at least a minimum-enough number of loose bodies floating around to stock the train. And then by Year 2 and Year 3 it'll be on completely solid footing going forward with all new equipment in-service.
In the meantime, you target years 2020-24 for step-ups...starting with Pittsfield Intermodal Ctr. which has a nice intercity bus terminal but not a whole slew of scheduled intercity trips because it's a ways off the Pike. Can that terminal get some enticement for more service? Maybe even some subsidy for the big-city carriers to 1) add Pittsfield to their Springfield-Albany schedules, and 2) time it with Empire trains so easy transfer, cross-ticketing, and professional baggage handling are available on the two-seat. Then establish some patronage here through these rubber-tire means that you can
graduate into a one-seat train when the equipment is available. That would be way better use of time, resources, and seed-planting than not lifting a finger on any mode because they promised "2020" for the papers but the equipment won't be there till '25 at the earliest.
