Regional Rail (RUR) & North-South Rail Link (NSRL)

From NERail. . .

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This is what an out-for-rebuild F40 looks like completely gutted like a fish. Seen here on a flatbed in Erie, PA about to be moved between MPI factory locations to finish the job.
 
I posted it in the Commuter Rail thread, but it's also somewhat relevant here. I put together an analysis to demonstrate how the current commuter rail network actually has quite a few more than the ~12 lines we usually think of it as having. See here.
 
FMCB presentation on the industry response to the EMU RFI (slides presumably will be posted tomorrow):
  • Respondents: Alstom, Bombardier, CRRC, Hitachi, Hyundai Rotem, and Stadler. Great variation in the level of detail.
  • Also got responses from Wabtec, Harting, and TransitMatters as non-manufacturers (I guess they take amicus curiae statements).
  • Study assumes first delivery for the new fleet would be 2025/2026 timeframe. Of course, that depends on propulsion infrastructure for anything electric. Interesting that essentially every manufacturer talked up their hybrid or battery designs and not their overhead power ones... that kind of undercuts what we were hoping for from electrification.
There are a lot of slides, and he basically didn't speak to half of them. I won't clip them all now.

Alstom - 3 or 6 car semi-permanently coupled units. 1 single-level power + 2 multi-level trailer per unit. Low-level at select doors:

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Bombardier - Comprehensive transition plan with multilevel EMUs, dual-power locomotives, and existing coaches, but they could also do hybrids and battery-electric. They recommend that the MBTA share a vehicle design with New Jersey Transit.

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CRRC - 3 or 4-car permanently coupled. All-hybrid. Have shaped nose on both ends (seems very East Asia and very not MBTA to me).

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Hitachi (remember that they used to be Breda) - 6 to 9 cars, semi-coupled, with shaped nose on both ends.

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Hyundai-Rotem - Everything is powered, semi-coupled married pairs. They want the MBTA to share with SEPTA and Denver (cue F-Line rant in 5... 4... 3... 2...).

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Stadler - Gets points for being the only one with an MBTA livery in the render (a poorly-done MBTA livery, but still). All multilevel. Same family as Caltrain.

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In summary:

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Bombardier - Comprehensive transition plan with multilevel EMUs, dual-power locomotives, and existing coaches, but they could also do hybrids and battery-electric. They recommend that the MBTA share a vehicle design with New Jersey Transit.

View attachment 5677

Why does Bombardier propose those sad cars for US applications while also producing fantastic options for the international market? UK Class 345 is Bombardier:
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Why does Bombardier propose these sad cars for US applications while also producing fantastic options for the international market? UK Class 345 is Bombardier...

I grabbed the most relevant render from each manufacturer. Some of them included multiple models.

But that was their recommendation. Those cars are presumably approved by FRA/FTA for use in the US, and the Bombardier factory here knows how to build them. That would be my guess, anyway.

EDIT: The UK car is also single-level. Much easier to make single-level cars sleek than multi-level. Stadler made a nice run at it.

Plus everyone knows that we Americans have no earthly idea what a good rail car looks like, so they're tolling us ;).
 
Why does Bombardier propose these sad cars for US applications while also producing fantastic options for the international market? UK Class 345 is Bombardier...

Seems like they're banking on the MBTA wanting a "transition" period mixing the current fleet with new modules. Or that's how they're branding it at least.
 
Seems like they're banking on the MBTA wanting a "transition" period mixing the current fleet with new modules. Or that's how they're branding it at least.

Bingo. The reason why the MLV is what it is is because those are wholly conventional coaches and cab cars between the power cars. NJT's installed base of 429 MLV trailers and cabs built 2006-2013 are fully trainline-compatible with the new power cars, and since NJT continues to be a blended system of self-propelled and push-pull the enormity of the unit totals the EMU procurement is folded into is for continued replacement of old single-level P-P coaches to complete MLV hegemony. All loco haul, dual-mode loco haul, and EMU service will use the exact same pool fleet of unpowered coaches...massively simplifying fleet management and busting down ops costs to about as rock-bottom as it gets for such a varied-power system.

The MLV's are not svelte...they're very heavy. They're not sexy. They're thoroughly North American in design, which will make the comments sections on the transpo blogosphere explode in self-loathing (if anyone actually reads the blog comments, which thankfully no truly sane person ever does). But they're also REALLY FUCKING VERSATILE as a direct outgrowth of that Ugly American design in a way that no other make on the planet currently is. And have a rep for very good build quality, smooth ride, and excellent reliability. With 2 x 2 seating that's so much nicer and easier to get around than our 3 x 2 bi-levels. About the only thing they leave lacking is the somewhat awkward vestibule arrangement that's a little less fluid for boarding/alighting than our K-car vestibules, but that's forced more by NJT's double-doors design preference than anything else. Generation III coaches being produced alongside the EMU power cars are supposed to make corrections there, but if you simply had enough high-level platforms to minimize door trap flips so you could get away with having single wider sets of doors instead of the NJT doubles they'd probably be equivalently ideal.

For the T's purpose and fact that the 200-car bi-level push-pull order direct precedes the EMU order, adopting the MLV is awfully tempting for the economics of a system about to begin the electrification/RUR transition. Awfully, awfully tempting. Doubly tempting because we can home-order the trailers and cabs, but possibly 'slush' some NJT options for the power cars since NJT's enormous 113-unit base/636-options contract is fully shape-shifting on the option end as to which of the three car types (trailer, cab, or power car) those 636 option units ratio out to. Unit prices will also be very good with the BBD factory hot for two-thirds this decade on that order, and NJT playing the debugging guinea pig on the power cars so we don't have to. MLV's are also the most-favored likely pick for Metro North/LIRR's and ConnDOT's new P-P coach orders as well. While BBD has had an abysmal run of late with rapid transit deliveries given the R179 subway car debacle in NY and the tortured Flexity Freedom LRV rollout in Canada, their North American RR stock quality control continues to be top-notch with a fistfull of new 8-inch boarding BLV orders (still the #1 most widely-used coach on the continent after 44 years) recently placed and this massive new NJT contract for the now well-proven MLV's.


I mean, we know TransitMatters has its preference for single-levels (though those those 2 x 2 seating bi's are way better than the sardine cans we have). And I know the stuff Stadler makes is 'totes sleek if we don't fuck with the design to cost-bloating incredulity like Caltrain did and keep the mods to a minimum. But as means-to-an-end there simply isn't a better fit than the MLV for a system that's going to be in active transition from push-pull to self-propelled throughout the entirety of their 25-year pre-rebuild rated lifespan. Nothing makes electrification easier than being able to start out from Day 1 with fleet scale that's wholly power-agnostic. So what if the Fairmount Line has to start out with 3-car bi-level EMU's when in a perfect world we'd be using flats. It still beats the everloving snot out of an F40-hauled pack of 1980's coaches any day. Or literally any DMU on the planet. We need a Providence-compatible pool fleet to build a self-propelled beachead around, and pool fleet that can in general can plug all around the system when there's limited space (esp. southside) for getting all that precious about lash-ups. Start there. When we eventually get enough 495 lines wired up that there's enough scale to order separate single-level EMU's for the strictly intra-128 Urban Rail patterns...then start to differentiate flats & bi's by service tier. The only reason Bombardier isn't offering a universal-compatible single-level car like it is with the MLV is that it hasn't produced any North American flats in 24 years (the MNRR Shoreliner IV's...obsolete all-aluminum bodies when everything today is stainless steel). I guarantee that after they get the MLV EMU rolling and port that tech to the 8-inch BLV family (i.e. for GO Transit's Toronto electrification) that they'll round out the family with a single-level variant as soon as they have the time to get around to it. And we can probably order that for the Urban Rail routes because it'll be technologically identical to the self-propelled bi's (and maybe even trainlineable as mixed flat's-'n-bi's sets). The only reason it's not available for purchase right this bloody second is because BBD doesn't have a stainless steel-body flat readily available for FRA import. That's a finishing detail they'll get to later.
 
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Well, at least with the Rotem proposal, the MLVs aren't the ugliest cars in contention here. Though the Hitachis look like a goofy anime character, or maybe like a particular type of... small appliance also made by Hitachi.
 
NOTES. . .

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Keep in mind that Chinese rolling stock manufacturers are no-go for federal funding. We can only buy CRRC if it's 100% state funds. That's going to weight against their MLV-ish (but different) push-pull make for SEPTA and Exo (Montreal) when it comes to the 200-car bi-level order, because the T probably doesn't want to preclude even tokenism FTA grant awards when it comes to an order that huge. That in turn's going to hurt CRRC on the EMU order because 800 lb. gorilla Bombardier slots into the pole position for that order with the MLV trailers/cabs...where a win on the 200-unit coach order gives them overwhelming advantage for winning the EMU order. CRRC has also yet to roll out its first pilot car for the SEPTA order, so they're still as of 6/15/2020 a total blank slate in the North American commuter rail market.

Springfield factory or no, consider them a 'challenged' longshot because of the federal politics involved.


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HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Oh, that's rich. Nice one, guys. Really had me going there. Whew!

Yeah...uh, how about NO. The Silverliner V is one of the biggest pieces of rolling hot garbage produced by anyone this century. Build quality is all-around abysmal, with Rotem infamously hiring unqualified electrificans for the glitchy spaghetti wiring that plagues these things. The cracked trucks problem that sidelined SEPTA's fleet in that infamous 2016 service meltdown is a recurring issue requiring above-and-beyond preventative maintenance for the rest of their service lives that will bloat their maint costs into the stratosphere. SEPTA's currently planning to replace its much larger Silverliner IV ancients with parasitic MLV EMU options from NJT (pending funding sources, as it's currently tucked way off on the option end). That move will probably spur a 20-years-and-out quick retirement of the SLV's since they'll be a minority fleet. Or sell theirs to Denver RTD as fleet expansion and be done with them sooner. Denver hasn't had many problems with their fleet, but being a starter system they had the luxury of pre-adjusting for the maint headaches that hit SEPTA square in the jaw and run them in much lighter duty since their system is still very small.

Rotem no longer has any U.S. factory of any kind, and aren't able to satisfy Buy American. Chalk that up to all 4 of their North American CR orders being shit sandwiches: SLV all-around debacle, MBTA rollout debacle + losing shirts on warranty repairs (fumble since semi-recovered with improved uptime, but they ain't great cars), and Tri-Rail & Metrolink cab car problems (temporarily yanked from service) + build-quality gripes with the Bombardier BLV clones those 8-inch boarding systems ordered. The +80 supplemental order for the T was bonded outside of Buy America for a straight-rip continuation approximating the canceled +75 unit option order on the original contract. That's a one-off case. I don't know how they can bid EMU's without having plans to try all over again at opening a U.S. plant, because there's no way the T is going to risk it on them without being able to draw some funding sources that auto-trigger Buy American regs. Most likely Rotem knows that pooch is long-screwed and are just going through the motions responding to the bid so they have something to show their shareholders...but in practicality they're planning on being blackballed from the North American CR market for a good decade for their past sins.

It is adorable, however, that they even had the courage to go in front of the T with a new bid. If only because of the PTSD it probably triggers from ex- SEPTA managers involved in that procurement when they read it in the trade press.
 
Purely on design, I like Alstom, Stadler, and then Bombardier. However everything F-Line and Equilibria mention as transition factors makes total sense so it will probably be Bombardier. I give Stadler props for the Purple Color, but how hard is it to get the T Logo perspective correct? I could do better in PhotoShop or PowerPoint. :) Based on the Green Line Extension, will I be alive to take an EMU on MBTA territory? When I moved to Somerville/Medford in 1988, the apartment was on Boston Avenue just outside Ball Square. They talked about the Green Line coming to Ball Square in 1988...........so, it's ONLY been 32 years.
 
Full slide deck:


Ignorant question, given Bombardier's suggestion on slide 19: does it make any sense to electrify the inside 128 portion of all lines (or all Southside/Northside lines) at once and then extend out?

Substation placement charts where freshly electrified territory racks up. In the case of the Fairmount Line it's chaining off the expansion of existing NEC Sharon substation, which covers the South Station terminal district. Sharon sub, located at about the two-thirds point between Canton Junction and Sharon stations and 1000 ft. south of some major feeder lines, has a mostly blank site as shown on Google. That has site capacity to get infilled with new sub for an expanded terminal district, 4 wired NEC tracks throughout MA carrying 2040-level Amtrak traffic and RUR-level Providence traffic, 2 wired tracks of full Fairmount Urban Rail traffic and interlined Franklin/Foxboro RUR traffic, and *maybe* the Riverside Urban Rail line (or at least starters before terminal district backfill forces the innermost B&A to get switched to the nearest MetroWest sub's feed).

25 kV AC is an international standard, and Amtrak's New Haven-Boston electrification produced a long specs guide that Denver RTD, Caltrain, CAHSR, and GO Transit are all following. The substations are the source of all power, located near high-tension power lines (all pre-existing for AMTK, with any power boosts just augmenting the lines already on the power company ROW). Subs are located in the middle of power sections, with the endpoints of each section marked by switching stations. The absolute endpoints of the electrification--i.e. the phase break to Metro North's 12.5 kV system and the bumper posts at South Station--are situated more or less equivalent to where another set of switching stations would be for continuing the 25 kV service. For instance, when NSRL is built, it'll have an underground switching station breaking up the southside/Sharon power section from the first northside section.
  • South Station endpoint: Milepost 228
  • Sharon, MA substation: MP 212; 17 miles from South Station (and/or future NSRL switching station)
  • Norton, MA switching station: MP 199; 29 mi. from SS; ↓13 mi. from Sharon sub, ↑22 mi. from Warwick sub
  • Warwick, RI substation: MP 177 (1000 ft. north of T.F. Green platform); 51 mi. from SS; ↓22 mi. from Norton switch, ↑27 mi. from Richmond switch
  • Richmond, RI switching station: MP 150; 78 mi. from SS; ↓27 mi. from Warwick sub, ↑27 mi. from New London sub
  • New London substation: MP 124 (State Pier next to Thames River Bridge); 104 mi. from SS; ↓26 mi. from Richmond switch, ↑21 mi. from Westbrook switch
  • Westbrook, CT switching station: MP 103; 125 mi. from SS; ↓21 mi. from New London sub; ↑24 mi. from Branford sub
  • Branford, CT substation: MP 79 (2 mi. west of CTrail Branford station, off-ROW w/ feeders trenched under I-95); 149 mi. from SS; ↓24 mi. from Westbrook switch, ↑5 mi. from New Haven phase break
  • Mill River phase break (changeover to Metro North 12.5 kV): MP 74 (3/4 mi. north of State Street Station, immediately before Springfield Line split)
Lengths of power sections:
  • Sharon sub (South Station to Norton): 29 miles
  • Warwick sub (Norton to Richmond): 49 miles
  • New London sub (Richmond to Westbrook): 45 miles
  • Branford sub (Westbrook to Mill River): 29 miles
Sharon is a shortie because it powers the Boston terminal district. Branford is a shortie as provision for absorbing the first power section of the Springfield Line when fully built out, so in the future it may be sharing the load up to about Wallingford (NHV terminal district is all on the MNRR 12.5 kV network). The others are representative, including the fudge factor for placements near power lines. Note that these spacings stay constant despite traffic levels and # of wired tracks, as they're based on voltage losses and not load factors. For heavier-load sections (like Sharon) you simply build a bigger sub, stuff it with more equipment, and feed it with brawnier transmission lines.

The only other structures are on-ROW paralleling stations, which are basically localized circuit breakers. There's 18 of them scattered along the NHV-BOS electrification at approx. 7-mile intervals between the larger subs & switching stations. The SW Corridor, for instance, has 2 of them: Roxbury halfway between Ruggles and Jackson Square OL stations, and one at Readville sandwiched between the NEC and NEC-Fairmount connector. Since the Fairmount Line will be parasitic to Sharon sub, it would need about 2 of these...one inside of Southampton Yard to break it from the yard feed, and one somewhere in the Talbot-Morton stretch.


I honestly don't know where this would chunk out in terms of "Can you build 128-turning lines first?", because the layout goes by its own voltage distances and not necessarily service distances. On the southside it's reasonable to figure that Franklin/Foxboro are going to be powered by a sub in Walpole near the prison right on the start of the Framingham Secondary because there's some monster-ass high-tension lines converging there...and the distances agree for a sub based there and a switching station at Readville. Worcester Line I'm thinking that MetroWest hosts the sub because there's some big lines a stone's throw west of Framingham...but there's probably a switching station somewhere in Newton cleaving off from the terminal district feed. Stoughton is no-go for any electrification until you make decisions on whether South Coast Rail Phase II is happening, because it's too much for Sharon sub and the ideal power lines are in that blasted swamp in Easton. Old Colony's going to be pricey as you'll need one sub close to Braintree feeding the main + starts of all 3 lines then one each per branch further out. But you aren't wiring those any which way until the Dorchester pinch is fixed.

Northside...who knows. You have no shortage of lines running right along the Eastern Route, so you're set for Rockpeaburybodyport wiring and 2 subs powering all. The question is "who's Sharon-North?" that powers the terminal district so you know where things are phase-breaking from each other at a switching station. Waltham has a shitload of converging lines and the Fitchburg Line is branchless, so it may make sense to plunk the Terminal District feeder out there. Inner Lowell + Reading Line have somewhat dearth of lines inside of Woburn & Reading so there'll have to be some artful phase-breaking there with some lines having nearer subs so others can have further-out. None of it that big a deal...it's just not something you can easily conceptualize in your head vs. a service zone map that breaks Urban Rail vs. RUR almost always @ 128. You shoot for how many new service rungs each pricey sub nets you, but can't necessarily count on it being "all the Urban Rails first" because the service buildout yardsticks vs. electrification buildout yardsticks don't have the same common denominators.
 
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Well, at least with the Rotem proposal, the MLVs aren't the ugliest cars in contention here. Though the Hitachis look like a goofy anime character, or maybe like a particular type of... small appliance also made by Hitachi.

The Rotem looks so hilariously awful compared with the rest of them.

As for the MLV's, the tiny tiny doors and bottleneck at the stairs means dwell times are horrible. NJT made a big mistake with them.

Their big Super Bowl plan, a whole 15 months in the making, collapsed because they relied on the MLV's with their horribly slow loading. Had they used their single level trains with doors in the middle, they could have loaded and sent off twice as many trains.

Compare with these doors on a system that cars about dwell time

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American transit agencies continue to stick their heads in the sand when it comes to doors. See also: buses.
 
We all know that the MBTA is going to go with the cheapest bid, which means the lowest price. They always do with everything.
 
So... Anyone have a good guess as to why Kawasaki decided to stay out of this one? The M8 is, I believe, still in production for ConnDOT with options remaining and would seem to be a natural offer. Are they expecting to be too busy with the R211 and the M9?

Given they built a good chunk of the multilevels, I can see them putting together something like the bombardier offer, offering an unpowered version for the 200 car multilevel procurement. (Which I fully expect bombardier to jump on as a backdoor to selling the MLV)
 
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So... Anyone have a good guess as to why Kawasaki decided to stay out of this one? The M8 is, I believe, still in production for ConnDOT with options remaining and would seem to be a natural offer. Are they expecting to be too busy with the R211 and the M9?

Given they built a good chunk of the multilevels, I can see them putting together something like the bombardier offer, offering an unpowered version for the 200 car multilevel procurement. (Which I fully expect bombardier to jump on as a backdoor to selling the MLV)

Kawasaki soured on the North American CR market some time ago and hasn't been bidding as aggressively. The T practically begged them to submit a package for more K-cars rather than have to come crawling back to Rotem for the +80 addendum, but no dice. They've got the MTA giving them more work than their Yonkers factory can handle for the next 10 years, anyway, with the M9's, M8 supplementals, and all the NYCT subway cars. Several thousand units for one buyer.
 
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So, the Bombardier slide seems to imply that powered units can mix with "existing" bi-levels. Do they mean Kawasakis and/or Rotems?
 
So, the Bombardier slide seems to imply that powered units can mix with "existing" bi-levels. Do they mean Kawasakis and/or Rotems?

Good question. Theirs...without a doubt, because Generations I & II MLV's won't need any modifications whatsoever to trainline with the power cars NJT is ordering. K-cars & clones...dunno. There's physically possible, and there's "does the warranty cover it?" possible.

NJT, MARC, and Exo don't mix their MLV's with older cars (Comet clones and/or K-cars like us) because the auto-door logic on the MLV's doesn't play nice with the 'dumb' universal programming on the older cars. But that's also because all 3 buyers ordered them at NJT's double-door vestibule spec to save money (Montreal's was separate-order but simultaneous production run with NJT, Maryland's literally a bunch of take-it-or-leave NJT option orders where they weren't allowed to change a single spec). It's no guarantee anyone future-purchasing the MLV besides NJT will be doing the double-door thing with one high-level only auto door right next to an all-platforms compatible regular door w/ flipping trap that can be run auto-or-manual. It's likely no big deal to go back to unidoor and the less-complicated logic for controlling them that's backwards-compatible with older coaches. Given that narrow door widths are the biggest criticism of the NJT vesibules, that might even be the best idea for a buyer like the T because it would allow for that singular door w/trap to be widened considerably.

If that's the case, then they may indeed be trainline-compatible with the K-cars by having the same number of doors. The K-cars, despite being a full foot taller, weigh almost 3 tons less than a stock MLV trailer vs. trailer and cab vs. cab...so they won't challenge the propulsion cars at all even with the higher weight capacity in 3 x 2 seated human flesh. Despite the door logic incompatibility MARC did trainline its Gen. II MLV's with its T-identical Gen. I K-cars until they'd accumulated enough MLV deliveries to start segregating fleets for the doors...so everything except the door computers is proven 100% compatible already in push-pull. Since Gen. I & Gen. II MLV's are supposed to require zero modification whatsoever to work with the new power cars...ergo, there shouldn't be anything preventing a K-car from slotting into one of those sets. As long as we order with backwards-compatible door controls.

What Bombardier didn't make clear (probably because the fine print just doesn't translate to slide form easily) was whether they'd warranty-cover trainlining of unlike cars, just in case that's enough of an unknown that they don't want to stick their necks out on differing wear profiles from trainlining product they're not familiar with. The slide seems to hint that this is indeed kosher for them, as the 'unknowns' all seem to be very small-potatoes. Though we'll have to see if their full bid documentation bears that out to the last detail. On first glance it seems promising.


In real practice the 2 x 2 seating is enough of a flow improvement that for RUR you'd definitely want the all- 2 x 2 sets handling electrified Providence and Worcester with the monster-patronage intermediate stops those schedules board/alight. And they certainly won't waste any 3 x 2's on the Urban Rail routes. So my guess is there'll be de facto segregation on who gets stocked with what...and quite a lot of those 200-order MLV's assigned to diesel land simply because electrification doesn't happen overnight. The Gen. I K-cars from 1991 that just finished midlife rebuild will be up for fish-or-cut-bait decision by 2030-32 (they're certainly rebuildable again...just probably not by us). So the roster will probably be shape-shifting away from those and towards more supplemental new 2 x 2 MLV orders by the time electrification and its associated aggressive dwell taming claims >50% of the system anyway. The overall timing kind of gels nicely with fleet renewal cycles.
 
Addendum. . .

On the "Industry Consensus and Variations" slide, the consensus bullet for "Compatibility with legacy fleets adds cost per vehicle" is probably where the rub is on mixing MLV's with K-cars. Because on the Service & Support end of the fleet deal Bombardier would need to charge a higher premium for wear-profile unknowns from unlike cars needing to trainline with their power packs. So the answer could be both: Absolute feasibility is guaranteed (esp. if the door config decision leans that way)...but it'll probably come with enough maintenance premiums from tasking propulsion systems with "guesstimating" for quasi-unknown vs. fully-known car properties that any buyer would likely make the decision to de facto segregate on pure fleet management grounds. Essentially, all bases technically covered...but it boils down to how it's fleet-managed. There being no technical blockers does not mean we need to be blowing straight through even the mildest caution flags and start chaining up K-car to power pack to old Pullman flats anything-goes. Probabilities that something in that pu-pu platter may not be immaculately well-behaved (Brokems, I'm looking in your direction) are nonzero. You could always end up with something overtaxing the propulsion because that 1st-batch Rotem right there that rocks back-and-forth a little too much keeps tripping the power pack's computer telemetry into overcorrecting. Etc., etc., etc. This seems to be laying down a set of best-practices such that: "In thy lash-up, deal with the devil you know best (MLV's with MLV's) first before dealing with the devil you're not sure you know as well as you think." Which probably nets a practical answer of: YES to sandwiching an old Pullman-convert bike car per set across the system during peak season, NO to the Kawa-Bombar-'Brokem crazy-quilt rush hour lash-ups unless you're feeling very lucky n' a little reckless...because you may not like our warranty rates if you blow a power pack traction motor overcorrecting for some old swill.

Seems sensible enough in-practice.


Of course, when you get into the whole 2 x 2 vs. 3 x 2 seating debate it sort of starts breaking towards segregation on scruples anyway. You need the faster boarding/alighting on those runs where every intermediate stop is chucking 1000 daily boardings, and you need the faster boarding/alighting where stop spacing is going to be anywhere halfway-dense. On the flipside, 3 x 2's excellent for the Fitchburg RUR's that are going to be skip-stopping a lot more intra-128 stops covered by the Waltham Urban Rail trains because that wider inner stop spacing brings the travel time to Wachusett attractively down, and everything on the Old Colony that's a last-priority electrification until Dorchester pinch is fixed has ideal longish stop spacing to begin with for running all- K-car packs. So on service planning they kind of go their separate ways anyway...and then of course the rebuild-or-retire/resell decision on the '91 and '98 K-car batches coincides with when the electrification push has made it past all the initial priorities and is now in follow-thru phases...so if we keep an appreciable pace those fleet decisions time out perfectly. (And yes, as per a few posts up it's a guarantee that BBD will eventually offer a single-level version for our Urban Rail routes as soon as they can get around to importing the stainless steel single-level body they currently don't have).
 
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My instinctual reaction to the deck is that Bombardier has the inside track, because all the other options require the audacity to discard the existing rolling stock.
 

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