Who WILL be declared the winner at 111 Federal St/Winthrop Garage redevelopment?

[odurandina]

Who WILL BE declared the winner at 111 Federal St/Winthrop Garage redevelopment?

Now that we have a very clear idea of the financial compensation offered to the city of Boston to win the right to develop the 111 Fed/Winthrop Garage site, the scale of the projects, and potential revenue.... Now that we've had some time to discuss the renders of the proposed towers, please choose who you believe will be declared the winner.

discussion thread here....

http://www.archboston.org/community/showthread.php?t=1649&page=100

Purchase offers* are as follows:

Millennium - $150,790,000 ($100,000,000 land offer + $50,790,000 at $100/sf as units are sold)
HYM - $100,000,000 ($68,250,000 land offer)
LendLease - $75,000,000 (land offer only)
TransNational - $75,000,000 (land offer only)
Trinity - $60,500,000 (land offer only)
Accordia - $50,000,000 (land offer only)

*Developers included other public benefits & payouts. Some are not raw land offers.

*HYM values the school and shrine improvements at $93 million total.

**HYM is counting the school costs in the bid. They really bid $62.25 million for the site.

***Millennium actually bid $100 million for the site, and added an additional contribution for each "saleable square foot" of the residences that they sell. It seems like a flat rate, but I wonder if that's a hedge against being forced to include more market-rate or under-market units (i.e., their square footage wouldn't count). It may also have been a hedge against the financial disadvantage to the city by residential vs. office use (lower taxes and consumption of benefits).

 

[odurandina]

_______

...the BRA doesn't have to look too far into the future to justify Accordia or Transnational to anti-development activists. Over time, the money evens out probably with Transnational Properties besting Millennium Partners.

I looked into the program of each proposal. While the tax rates and revenues are pretty hard to calculate (because they're based on value, not SF), it's pretty striking how differently-sized these buildings actually are. You can pretty closely relate SF to value, and therefore to projected revenue.

Trans National - 1.715 million GSF (500-700K office, 1 million residential, 30K retail)
Millennium - 1.4 million (500K office, 600K residential, 30K retail)
Trinity - 900K
HYM - 785K
Accordia - 767K

I'm not sure whether the Trans National number includes their existing building or not, which may make a difference, and Lendlease's presentation doesn't give it.

The question is whether the increased value of Trans National over time makes up the $75.79 million in additional cost paid by Millennium upfront. I did some quick calculations using the assessor's database with a condo in 45 Province and 200 Clarendon as exemplars for residential and office value per SF. At the current property tax rates, Millennium would pay about $12M per year in R+O property tax, and Trans National $18.

The City of Boston breaks even in year 13....

 

[odurandina]

This morning's Globe article...

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business...garage-site/yImeNvSNDSqDulfy6fIn6O/story.html

 

[palindrome]

I vote for Millenium not just for their highest bid, but because they also have a solid track record on getting things done in this city.

 

[type001]

+1. And that indoor Pavillion is going to rock hard. It should help spread more life into downtown after dark.

 

[estyle]

This morning's Globe article...

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business...garage-site/yImeNvSNDSqDulfy6fIn6O/story.html

One issue with TransNational that no one seems to be mentioning (including the Globe) is that the Paul Rudolph building is a pending City of Boston Landmark with a lot of eyes on it. While the Mayor can make that go away with his veto, it is an important building that they are proposing to replace with something pretty banal.

 

[odurandina]

i hope to be the closest person to ground zero when they bomb it.

How is the Great Hall going to be anything but a sanitized corporate lobby with some occasional programming? I don't get the love for this.

That's exactly what it will be and that's exactly how it felt in the VR demo. Just standing in the middle of a sterile, hard-surfaced, cold corporate lobby with fancy lighting.

it's a tough parcel to do so much with. Nice try by Millennium as the ground level looks so much better than the others. Still holding out hope for an October surprise. But Accordia must be considered a long shot at this point.