Amazon HQ2 RFP

[FenwayResident]

The people who run Amazon aren't idiots. They will have ZERO trouble moving talent to Philly. Baltimore is more of an uphill battle reputation-wise, but I know people who hesitantly moved there for work and now love the place and constantly evangelize for it. Baltimore is on a huge up-swing and Amazon may see it as a great time to catch the wave. Heck, Amazon more or less created the wave in Seattle.

I'm not sure I agree with this. In the early 2000's when Amazon was just starting its rapid growth, Seattle was already a very desirable place to live with high quality of life. While Amazon definitely created a huge growth wave there, Seattle did not have a nasty reputation to overcome like Baltimore or Detroit currently have.

Also, if Amazon is going after top talent, they will have to compete with other companies for that talent. If those competing companies are in more desirable locations, Amazon will have to compensate in other ways to attract talent (most likely by increasing pay) or settle for less-than-top talent. That's a real cost to moving to these less-desirable cities. It's not going to be "zero trouble" to pull top talent from SF, LA, NYC, etc. to a place with a reputation like Baltimore.

 

[Rover]

Cities do not move in the same direction forever. If that were true, Boston would be smaller than Dubuque today.

Someone once asked Wayne Gretzky why he scored more goals than any other player. He said something to the effect of 'The rest of those jamokes are skating to the puck. I skate to where the puck will be in 10 seconds'.

Catalysts can change a city's trajectory (especially if that city has "sleeping giant" type of advantages - - i.e. 1960's Boston with the universities, or 1970's Austin with the flagship state university and oil prices about to rise).

In the case of Baltimore, the sleeping giant advantages are Johns Hopkins, Univ. MD and others, along with proximity to DC, and a VERY easy to use International Airport, not to mention one of the U.S.' busiest Atlantic Ocean shipping ports (far busier than Boston and the rest of Massachusetts COMBINED).

Meanwhile, let's examine for a moment, if you will, how to increase housing in the burbs for Amazon?
-Boston area - - you must go community by community and endure the town/city meetings of HOW many different communities? each with their OWN, unique development bylaws?
-Baltimore's jurisdictions are COUNTY, not town. Logistics count. How many thousands of prodcutivity man and womanhours does that difference mean to Amazon? Folks, this is a BUSINESS decision, not a beauty contest.

The catalyst, meanwhile, is single, local developer of a waterfront tract of land that is 235 acres and is building a mini city for his own company (Kevin Plank of Under Armour).

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Again, this is all your opinion which is all well and good but I fail to see why your opinion, which doesn't line up with the facts (Baltimore is losing people) is more relevant than mine which does? If you think Baltimore is on a huge upswing I'd advise that you start scooping up property there and best of luck to you. Baltimore's land is cheap because people don't want to live there, by and large, which has the effect of depressing housing prices as opposed to a place like NYC or SF where people do want to live and therefore prices are higher. Remember, its a fact that housing prices reflect supply and demand, not an opinion.

Also, a minor point but I doubt how busy the harbor is has much to do with Amazon's considerations or it would have been in their request, thus leading places like Austin and Atlanta to not bother wasting their time.

Finally, if cost of living is a main driver, Boston is screwed anyway, but I imagine so is all of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic as you can get what Baltimore delivers in Charlotte, Atlanta or Austin at a lot lower price (except for the harbor, of course )

 

[ant8904]

Why am I getting roasted for giving an opinion, even though my opinion might be an explanation for what's actually happening in real life (people are departing Baltimore).

Because you are giving your opinion poorly. When you keep saying "___ is a dump", you are making assessments without substance. Yes, you are also saying crime rate and depopulation, so you're not totally without substance in your latest post. But a lot of your post is basically stating opinion based on your own biases rather than something substantial.

Taking your sports analogy ~1 page ago. Don't be that "I'm the best dodgeball player because all these guys suck" kid. Be that NFL player look at the 0-7 Browns and still look at them "I should beat them easily, but I still need to analyze that run defense they have"

That why we rather look at Baltimore and do what shmessy just did rather than just laugh at Baltimore's bid and shitpost memes.

 

[datadyne007]

Because you are giving your opinion poorly. When you keep saying "___ is a dump", you are making assessments without substance. Yes, you are also saying crime rate and depopulation, so you're not totally without substance in your latest post. But a lot of your post is basically stating opinion based on your own biases rather than something substantial.

Taking your sports analogy ~1 page ago. Don't be that "I'm the best dodgeball player because all these guys suck" kid. Be that NFL player look at the 0-7 Browns and still look at them "I should beat them easily, but I still need to analyze that run defense they have"

That why we rather look at Baltimore and do what shmessy just did rather than just laugh at Baltimore's bid and shitpost memes.

This.

 

[Rover]

Because you are giving your opinion poorly. When you keep saying "___ is a dump", you are making assessments without substance. Yes, you are also saying crime rate and depopulation, so you're not totally without substance in your latest post. But a lot of your post is basically stating opinion based on your own biases rather than something substantial.

Taking your sports analogy ~1 page ago. Don't be that "I'm the best dodgeball player because all these guys suck" kid. Be that NFL player look at the 0-7 Browns and still look at them "I should beat them easily, but I still need to analyze that run defense they have"

That why we rather look at Baltimore and do what shmessy just did rather than just laugh at Baltimore's bid and shitpost memes.

Umm...which is the same thing shmessy's doing except without the underlying factual basis. While I won't rehash my personal feeling of Baltimore, I stand by linking depopulation with the health/attractiveness of a city. Whose opinion should we take - mine who doesn't care for the place, shmessy who apparently thinks its Eden, or the people who actually live there who are departing in droves? Personally I think the opinions of us on the message board pale in comparison to the former residents who are ditching the place.

And people say I'm the egotistical one.

 

[Equilibria]

I'm not sure I agree with this. In the early 2000's when Amazon was just starting its rapid growth, Seattle was already a very desirable place to live with high quality of life. While Amazon definitely created a huge growth wave there, Seattle did not have a nasty reputation to overcome like Baltimore or Detroit currently have.

It didn't when Amazon started there because Microsoft had been the catalyst already.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...st-person-seattle-billboard-bubbles-up-again/

 

[shmessy]

Again, this is all your opinion which is all well and good but I fail to see why your opinion, which doesn't line up with the facts (Baltimore is losing people) is more relevant than mine which does? If you think Baltimore is on a huge upswing I'd advise that you start scooping up property there and best of luck to you. Baltimore's land is cheap because people don't want to live there, by and large, which has the effect of depressing housing prices as opposed to a place like NYC or SF where people do want to live and therefore prices are higher. Remember, its a fact that housing prices reflect supply and demand, not an opinion.

Also, a minor point but I doubt how busy the harbor is has much to do with Amazon's considerations or it would have been in their request, thus leading places like Austin and Atlanta to not bother wasting their time.

Finally, if cost of living is a main driver, Boston is screwed anyway, but I imagine so is all of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic as you can get what Baltimore delivers in Charlotte, Atlanta or Austin at a lot lower price (except for the harbor, of course )

Absolutely, my opinion is neither more or less weighty than yours. It's all opinion. Subjectivity. And by the way, not mean ing to 'roast" you at all. i appreciate the conversation and you have many great points from which I am learning also. I hope we can continue.

What is NOT Subjective, however, is that you wrote your posts using the PRESENT tense after I clearly based my point on skating to where the puck is going to go, and how Gretzky pointed out the difference between planning based on the present tense and planning with an eye to the future. The disconnect is that you are using the present tense.

That future may or may not pan out. But I guarantee you someone like Jeff Bezos does not make his long-term plans the same way you are writing about in that post. Bezos is skating to where he feels the puck is going to be, not where it is now.

And you are OBJECTIVELY wrong about Charlotte, Atlanta and Austin delivering everythting Baltimore delivers (except the seaport - - which IS a big deal). Neither is within minutes of Washington, DC where Bezos owns the Post and has a $29 million home. it is also where the FDA, NIH, FCC, etc are all located, not to mention Capitol Hill. That is just a cold hard fact.

 

[ant8904]

Umm...which is the same thing shmessy's doing except without the underlying factual basis. While I won't rehash my personal feeling of Baltimore, I stand by linking depopulation with the health/attractiveness of a city. Whose opinion should we take - mine who doesn't care for the place, shmessy who apparently thinks its Eden, or the people who actually live there who are departing in droves? Personally I think the opinions of us on the message board pale in comparison to the former residents who are ditching the place.

And people say I'm the egotistical one.

No, it is not the same thing. Your posts until you people call you out and explain yourself was just opinions without substance. Schmessy states his opinion and gave substance behind it.

I'm going to try to put into a sports analogy one more time: Your analysis until you were called out was the equivalent to "lol browns they suck pats got this" (plus an air of arrogant condescension which fits really well to the old Bostonian streotype).

So between you and shmessy, shmessy has substance. Something to learn from (their proposal is also near the airport), something to debate on (like it is a reasonable counterpoint that why would Amazon care about the shipping port), something to consider (John Hopkins means the core educated population exists).

You didn't. Not until we roasted you for it that then you started to back it up. And yes, it is very reasonable points. But we have to call you out for you to start to do it. No one is roasting you about pointing out Baltimore population is declining. Everyone is roasting you when you just trash cities.

 

[SeamusMcFly]

Cities do not
-Baltimore's jurisdictions are COUNTY, not town. Logistics count. How many thousands of prodcutivity man and womanhours does that difference mean to Amazon? Folks, this is a BUSINESS decision, not a beauty contest.

.

Not sure if you have done work in Baltimore or Maryland, but it can be a jurisdictional nightmare. There are at least 3 plumbing codes in effect based on what part of the state you're in, plus the DC codes as you get closer. Montgomery County is a nightmare, and the nearest local equivalent I can think of is Kent County RI for similar nightmare experiences.

Not to say we're any better or worse up here, but MD can be a real pain. I did work in Baltimore, and it was different than in Rockville, and was different than in Montgomery (when I was doing State work.)

 

[shmessy]

Umm...which is the same thing shmessy's doing except without the underlying factual basis. While I won't rehash my personal feeling of Baltimore, I stand by linking depopulation with the health/attractiveness of a city. Whose opinion should we take - mine who doesn't care for the place, shmessy who apparently thinks its Eden, or the people who actually live there who are departing in droves? Personally I think the opinions of us on the message board pale in comparison to the former residents who are ditching the place.

And people say I'm the egotistical one.

Cold hard fact. Until about 15 years ago, Boston was depopulating at an advanced pace.

And by the way, thanks for assuming what is in my mind. I've been very respectful to you, I'd expect the same in return. I don't know why you feel a need to go personal when I've been conversing about the topic. Admittedly OTHER FOLKS have been coming down hard on you, but if you look again, not one of them is me.

In the meantime, I laughed at first at the Baltimore bid. It IS (present tense) a funky, offbeat and economically weak city. However, after I started reading about what Under Armour is doing in Port Covington and then reading the data on it, my thinking turned around on this.



.

 

[tysmith95]

Cold hard fact. Until about 15 years ago, Boston was depopulating at an advanced pace.

And by the way, thanks for assuming what is in my mind. I've been very respectful to you, I'd expect the same in return. I don't know why you feel a need to go personal when I've been conversing about the topic. Admittedly OTHER FOLKS have been coming down hard on you, but if you look again, not one of them is me.

In the meantime, I laughed at first at the Baltimore bid. It IS (present tense) a funky, offbeat and economically weak city. However, after I started reading about what Under Armour is doing in Port Covington and then reading the data on it, my thinking turned around on this.



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Boston has been increasing population wise since the 80s. The 90s census had slightly more people then the 80s one.

 

[shmessy]

Not sure if you have done work in Baltimore or Maryland, but it can be a jurisdictional nightmare. There are at least 3 plumbing codes in effect based on what part of the state you're in, plus the DC codes as you get closer. Montgomery County is a nightmare, and the nearest local equivalent I can think of is Kent County RI for similar nightmare experiences.

Not to say we're any better or worse up here, but MD can be a real pain. I did work in Baltimore, and it was different than in Rockville, and was different than in Montgomery (when I was doing State work.)

I have not. However, I guarantee you Amazon would rather deal with 3 plumbing codes in each of 13 counties, than the 297 codes (including foreign policy position papers for some) in each of 100+ town jurisdictions in Massachusetts. It's all relative.

BTW, I know some folks who tried opening restaurants in Montgomery County and you're 100% spot on with that observation - - nightmare.

My point is that Amazon would prefer 13 nightmares to 100+.

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[shmessy]

Boston has been increasing population wise since the 80s. The 90s census had slightly more people then the 80s one.

I stand corrected, Ty, thanks for the info there.

The question remains, if this was 1988, would Boston have been a poor choice for a high tech company looking to establish a HQ for the next century?

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[tysmith95]

I stand corrected, Ty, thanks for the info there.

The question remains, if this was 1988, would Boston have been a poor choice for a high tech company looking to establish a HQ for the next century?

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If it was 1988 the best choice would be Burlington or Waltham. Something suburban.

 

[Blackdog]

That future may or may not pan out. But I guarantee you someone like Jeff Bezos does not make his long-term plans the same way you are writing about in that post. Bezos is skating to where he feels the puck is going to be, not where it is now.

This right here is the biggest issue hurting Baltimore. "The futre may or may not pan out." For a multi-billion dollar company the risk is too high to go to a city that "may" be on the up and up. If Baltimore continues downwards then Amazon would be moving their new HQ to a city that people want to move out of therefor hurting their talent pool. To me, Baltimore is too risky for a huge business that is looking to create a multi-decade HQ location. I don't know much about business (programmer) but what I do know is that they are risk adverse and I believe that Amazon will go with a safer choice.

 

[shmessy]

This right here is the biggest issue hurting Baltimore. "The futre may or may not pan out." For a multi-billion dollar company the risk is too high to go to a city that "may" be on the up and up. If Baltimore continues downwards then Amazon would be moving their new HQ to a city that people want to move out of therefor hurting their talent pool. To me, Baltimore is too risky for a huge business that is looking to create a multi-decade HQ location. I don't know much about business (programmer) but what I do know is that they are risk adverse and I believe that Amazon will go with a safer choice.

If the proposal was a one-off, with Amazon being the only component of Port Covington, I would agree with you.

The fact that Under Armour (which is a 21st century-leaning corporation) is the developer and first tenant of this mega project, changes things.

 

[FenwayResident]

If the proposal was a one-off, with Amazon being the only component of Port Covington, I would agree with you.

The fact that Under Armour (which is a 21st century-leaning corporation) is the developer and first tenant of this mega project, changes things.

Under Armour is roughly 70 times smaller than Amazon by market cap and 25 times smaller by employee count. It's not in the same league as a company like Amazon.

 

[JohnAKeith]

Stand by your numbers.

There was a steady drop between 2002 and 2006*; it was a momentary blip with population jumping in subsequent years.

https://www.cityofboston.gov/news/uploads/27130_22_22_11.pdf

*The original census estimate was disturbing - going from 590,000 at the turn of the century to 559,000 in 2005; subsequent revisions had it only losing around 8,000 within those first five years.

I stand corrected, Ty, thanks for the info there.

The question remains, if this was 1988, would Boston have been a poor choice for a high tech company looking to establish a HQ for the next century?

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[tysmith95]

Stand by your numbers.

There was a steady drop between 2002 and 2006*; it was a momentary blip with population jumping in subsequent years.

https://www.cityofboston.gov/news/uploads/27130_22_22_11.pdf

*The original census estimate was disturbing - going from 590,000 at the turn of the century to 559,000 in 2005; subsequent revisions had it only losing around 8,000 within those first five years.

Hmm interesting. I was just looking at the census data every 10 years, not in-between estimates.

Anyhow I wonder how college students are counted in the census.

 

[JohnAKeith]

Boston's HQ2 bid pushes Suffolk Downs as the ideal location for Amazon but does offer up alternatives South End / Back Bay / Roxbury (as one locale).

Included in the proposed 8,000,000-square feet of space available to Amazon are two Druker Co. projects - 350 Boylston (Shreve, Crump & Low) and 80 East Berkeley (currently an empty lot at Berkeley and Washington).

We'll all be dead before either of those two break ground, trust me.

BUT, interestingly, the RFP says "EB 80" will have a million square feet when fully built out .. that's news to me! (Original Druker proposal: http://www.bostonplans.org/projects/development-projects/80-east-berkeley-street)