archBoston Presidential Poll 2012

For whom will you be voting on Tuesday?

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Japan is stuck in a classic example of a liquidity trap:

A liquidity trap is a situation described in Keynesian economics in which injections of cash into the private banking system by a central bank fail to lower interest rates and hence fail to stimulate economic growth. A liquidity trap is caused when people hoard cash because they expect an adverse event such as deflation, insufficient aggregate demand, or war. Signature characteristics of a liquidity trap are short-term interest rates that are near zero and fluctuations in the monetary base that fail to translate into fluctuations in general price levels.
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The Bank of Japan has failed and continues to fail to raise expectations regarding the price level, and as a result their efforts have had little traction on the economy. Their Zero Interest Rate Policy is insufficient. This is the nature of a liquidity trap that was well described by Keynes. They need to find a way to break out of it: pursuing austerity would send them plunging into a Great Depression, but they haven't been willing to take the steps necessary to break out of the trap either.

The experience of England over the past few years shows quite well what happens when you pursue austerity before recovering from a recession: they are now in their country's worst depression. You wouldn't have us imitate that kind of European failure, would you?

McArdle's pronouncement is premature, and a bit naive, though with her I'm not surprised. Also notice how it is dated from 2010... alarmism grows stale rapidly.
 
Matthew said:
Japan is stuck in a classic example of a liquidity trap:



The Bank of Japan has failed and continues to fail to raise expectations regarding the price level, and as a result their efforts have had little traction on the economy. Their Zero Interest Rate Policy is insufficient. This is the nature of a liquidity trap that was well described by Keynes. They need to find a way to break out of it: pursuing austerity would send them plunging into a Great Depression, but they haven't been willing to take the steps necessary to break out of the trap either.

The experience of England over the past few years shows quite well what happens when you pursue austerity before recovering from a recession: they are now in their country's worst depression. You wouldn't have us imitate that kind of European failure, would you?

McArdle's pronouncement is premature, and a bit naive, though with her I'm not surprised. Also notice how it is dated from 2010... alarmism grows stale rapidly.
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Lurker just linked an article titled "Japan and the Limits of Keynesianism." Please stop.

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He linked an article from a pundit who is as misinformed as he is. It's easy to find articles on the internet like that. You cannot discuss the problems of Japan without discussing the liquidity trap, but McArdle seems to be unaware of that.

Please, get yourself a textbook of basic macroeconomics. Teach yourself. This is all conventional stuff. You will look less stupid in the future. Well, in the case of bosdevelopment, I'm not sure there is any hope. But Lurker seems interested in engaging.

May I suggest: Samuelson's Principles of Economic Analysis?
 
Matthew said:
The United States is a much stronger country than you seem to think. We are not Greece, and never will be. Your fear mongering makes you look ridiculous. Right now, interest rates on Treasury bonds are extremely low. For several years, we have heard the doom-mongers claim that interest rates would spike upwards any day. They have always been and continue to be wrong. Some of them made big bets and lost a lot of money because they turned out to be very wrong about their predictions.

I will say this: You do not know what you are talking about. But keep on digging. It's funny to watch you make ridiculous pronouncements and lash out at everyone with words that truly describe yourself.
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America is in worse shape than Greece.
Factor in Lurker charts and facts. Then calucalate Social Security & Medicare for the Boomers. 100 Trillion on unfunded Liabilities

This is not a doom & gloom. Mankind can achieve anything. This comes down to basic Mathamatics. the United States is bankrupt there is really no options for the U.S in the future. Bush destroyed the country and Obama put the nail in the coffin. No turning back.

I see 3 wild scenarios could be playing out.
#1 America files bankruptcy and surrenders or Selloffs Military to a New World Order.
#2 America breaksoff into 4 territories
NorthEast will be the NorthAmericanEuroUnion
MidWest will still be the MidAtlantic
South Will be SouthMexico
West Will be owned by China
#3 Civil War (once those social security & welfare checks & Union pensions stop arriving you will see an uprising like Greece 100X worse)

In Theory the Federal reserve is claiming that they can continue to PRINT Money but the Federal Reserve Bank (Ben Bernanke theory will prove completely wrong)

Read the #2 from a Russian Professor paper. Honestly I thought he was crazy when I read this 4 years ago. Now I finally understand how he got to this conclusion.
 
Matthew said:
He linked an article from a pundit who is as misinformed as he is. It's easy to find articles on the internet like that. You cannot discuss the problems of Japan without discussing the liquidity trap, but McArdle seems to be unaware of that.

Please, get yourself a textbook of basic macroeconomics. Teach yourself. This is all conventional stuff. You will look less stupid in the future. Well, in the case of bosdevelopment, I'm not sure there is any hope. But Lurker seems interested in engaging.

May I suggest: Samuelson's Principles of Economic Analysis?
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Have you even finished college yet? It's painfully obvious that you mission is simply to defend the president at all costs. The issue is whether Japan follows a Keynesian (heavy-government involvement) model, which they do... obviously.

Ignoring [your own] statements and referencing writings that you just googled (and haven't read) is a waste of everyone's time, including yours.
 
Matthew said:
He linked an article from a pundit ...
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And you cited a far-left think tank that lists among its priorities increasing participation in food stamp programs, so what's your fucking point?
 
If the argument against Keynes is that he's a discredited ideologue, the counter example probably shouldn't be someone so right-wing they make Friedman look like a hippy.
 
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underground said:
If the argument against Keynes is that he's a discredited ideologue, the counter example probably shouldn't be someone so right-wing they make Friedman look like a hippy.
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Im one of those idiots that wrote in Ron Paul so... he would work too.
 
Myabe, I'll have to check it out another time. But there's something to be said about the size of your economy. Estonia has a GDP the size of Vermont's, that's cute.
 
GW2500 said:
size of your economy. Estonia has a GDP the size of Vermont's, that's cute.
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The United States Economy is built entirely on MASSIVE DEBT BUBBLE (the old Pyramid Scheme) that can never be repaid.

Thats like you building a company taking out unlimited loans like a 10 Trillion dollars of investors money and the company can only make 100 Million a year in Revenue?

100,000,000 in Income
80,000,000 in Expenses
20,000,000 Net Profit

10,000,000,000,000 DEBT Interest Rate 3% You could never service the loan. Your BANKRUPT. This was the MOB MENTALITY. Enslave the stupid so you always are in control.

Do you understand basic economics?
Now factor an additional 100Trillion in Social Security, Medicare, Govt & State Pensions that is based on Future Earnings.
Then factor in OBAMAcare?

I've never lived in a communist country but these types of social issues & programs with GOVT spending and my kids kids owe GOVT officials their future earnings comes pretty dam close to COMMUNIST a Theory
 
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Yes I do, and Estonia with the 101st largest economy is a cute little success story, that don't amount to a hill of beans in the big picture. It pretty much owes it's independence to NATO. Sure USSR would have eventually failed on its own, but the military/political powerhouses of the west greatly expedited the process. So when Estonia has the overhead costs to actually defend it's self then I'd take them a touch more serious. Even then a country of 1.5 million in a world of 7 billion is always just a small test sample. Bigger more diverse countries have bigger problems (basically mo money mo problems) so what works for them might not for big countries. Kind of like NYC and Lake Placid function on different levels of government. Funny how small gov't people always seem to be screaming that from the middle of nowhere.
 
Hong Kong is a pretty rad place and one of the (or the very first) freest economies in the world.
 
HK has a unique tax system which encourages smart land use too.
 
TheRifleman said:
I see 3 wild scenarios could be playing out.
#1 America files bankruptcy and surrenders or Selloffs Military to a New World Order.
#2 America breaksoff into 4 territories
NorthEast will be the NorthAmericanEuroUnion
MidWest will still be the MidAtlantic
South Will be SouthMexico
West Will be owned by China
#3 Civil War (once those social security & welfare checks & Union pensions stop arriving you will see an uprising like Greece 100X worse)
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IS this serious? This is the funniest thing I have ever read, and thought it deserved to be reposted.
 
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