Boston 2024

Before I try to address your points, a few comments.

In a discussion on this topic the evidence on the most of the points are effectively subjective and therefore impossible to definitively prove. The circumstances surrounding historical precedents vary widely and therefore must be used carefully. This said, I will at least try to expand on my previous post with some further detail.

I will base much of my evidence on London 2012 because (1) I lived there for 8 years preceding the games and I have a decent understanding of much of the dynamics (2) there is decent research on many relevant issues as the UK government is very transparent and responsive (3) it was a relatively inexpensive games and might show the way in which it could be done in Boston.

Considering one individual Olympics rather than a broad spectrum isn't very good. I could easily pick out one specific bid that went wonderfully and say that all bids will go equally well.

1. Size relative to the infrastructure required. Boston does not need a giant aquatics center, velodrome, stadium etc. Nor the ability to deal with the extra staff and competitors specifically in the locations required.

There are many universities that could use new aquatics centers. Several of them could just expand their existing ones modestly to meet Olympic standards.

Nobody needs a Velodrome. Which is why modern bids tend to make them temporary structures and get rid of them afterward. By your logic, no city on Earth should ever host the Olympics.

As far as a stadium, its well known that Kraft and the Revolution want to build a Soccer stadium in the city. Its quite likely that any Olympic Stadium would be built in a modular fashion so it can be reduced in capacity after the games.

2. What do you mean by profits and broke even? Are you saying the accounting for the sponsoring entities which paid only for the operating costs of the events? If so, then this is both irrelevant and misleading.

From an economic view, there are dozens of academic studies that say there are virtually no net economic impacts for games during the last 30 years. And even this tentative conclusion requires many highly uncertain assumptions.

To start us off:
Here's a decent primer on the economics of the Olympics: http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~rosenl/sports Folder/Economic Impact of Olympics PWC.pdf

And here's a decent example of an economic case study of Sydney:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13683500208667904#.Uplhwxa-7_c

Its very simple: You take all the costs the Olympic Games accrue and you subtract them from all the revenue they accrue. If the revenue is greater than the costs, then they made a profit. If its not, they lost money.

You claim that they have never had a positive impact on their host, which is categorically false, as its mathematic fact that they've made money when run well. You can make an argument that Boston specifically, for one reason or another, doesn't have what it takes to run the Olympics well, but you cannot say that they never work.

3. Not sure what you mean. But the most important point is that unlike London where the entire budget and concept of the Olympics was led by the national government, here it is clear that the majority of non-security spending will be born by the city and largely the state. And whatever economic benefits will accrue serious and longterm incremental debt at the state level.

What I mean is that the amount to which an Olympic bid is dependent on public dollars varies dramatically between each one. Some are heavily dependent on public dollars, while others are not. Thats pretty simple.

4. I agree and am very supportive of public investment in infrastructure and transportation. However, infrastructure needs to be focused and well suited to the specific needs of the area. This is precisely why the Olympics yield such a poor return on investment. Olympics infrastructure is designed around the 5 weeks of events and not the real needs of the community. If we need infrastructure, like an extended Blue line, then we should identify the need, design a suitable solution to that need, and finance it with public support. We will achieve much higher returns for this infrastructure spending in this way.

All potential needs have been pretty well identified by the MBTA for virtually every potential construction project and solutions for each need have been devised. Public support for such projects could likely be increased by an Olympic bid.

5. Take London as a template, say $18b to $25b expenditure for 5 weeks. How is it possible for this not to be considered exorbitant?

Because exorbitant is entirely relative. If an event were to cost $1 trillion over the course of a week, but earned revenue of $1.1 trillion, of what value would it be to say that the event's cost was exorbitant? Its only exorbitant if the costs are more than the people who are paying said costs are willing to bear.

6. During the run up to the Olympics (again see London), there is constant attention devoted to the Olympics budget, venue siting, construction, legacy, equity, cost overruns, problems, role of sponsorship, environmental impact etc. etc. Very little of this debate is relevant for the city / region beyond the olympics.

Are you saying that the population can only bear so much attention on any given topic?

Such as? Public infrastructure investment, crime, development, promoting economic growth, education, healthcare (for example: Blue line extension, urban ring, financing public transport, rising sea levels, promoting economic growth).

I'm really not sure what you mean. Are you saying there is no need for public policy discussion in the state of Mass? We don't currently have anything to discuss?

Its somewhat ironic that you're arguing that we have plenty to discuss, while saying "But we can't discuss that particular topic." Again, are our attention spans so short that we can only handle x number of public topics?

The bottom line is that the Olympics is an expensive and unnecessary party for the local host and that its legacy is hardly sufficient reward for the very real expense incurred. In addition to these general points, the specifics in the US and for Mass make even less sense because of the financing structure and other points outlined above. I am not predicting doom and gloom if we hosted but simply that it is an unnecessary expense and distraction and the false hope of the posters in this thread that it will magically finance all of their pet infrastructure projects is a dangerous delusion.

I'm curious: is there such a thing as a necessary party?
 
(1) I am not considering the history of only one Olympics, but rather many (although the circumstances vary so widely one must be careful when using direct comparisons here). I am referencing details from the London games for the clear reasons which I have already stated. It is far better to use specifics for discussion rather than vague generalities. Feel free to reference the details from a Games with which you are more familiar.

(2) Having read many of the local university Institutional Master Plans recently I did not recall any reference to a new aquatic center, but feel free to correct me. And it is unlikely they would build one for $450m and 2500 seats. No doubt they would be happy to accept one that is already at low cost to themselves.

And let's not forget the water polo arena (c $50m). The London one was completely dismantled. And let's not forget basketball, BMX, beach volleyball, handball, kayaking / whitewater arena etc.

"By your logic, no city on Earth should ever host the Olympics." - agreed, unless they are happy to spend the money on a party with no expectation of seeing a good return on it. If a community makes this decision through its accepted political process than so be it. But let's not fool ourselves with all of the other excuses that are put forth about re-use, spark redevelopment, legacy, etc.

(3) Stadium - temporary seating and reuse is one of the most overused excuses in Olympic developments and it rarely works. The $780m London Olympic Stadium was built 'modulary' as you suggest, and in a city with 6 premier league football teams and with clear discussions prior to 2012 about future development, and there is still no clear user slated for it after 16 months.

(4) "Its very simple: ..." - except that I gave you a clear definition to work with and you simply ignored the question. Your formulation, is simply wrong in economic terms. The profit of the Locog (Olympic organizing entity - whatever it is) is irrelevant to whether the host region benefits from a Games. Accounting and economic profits are not the same thing.

As far as I can tell (we can trade academic papers if you would like), going back to 1992 no Olympics has had a significant (or maybe a negative) net economic benefit to the region. In other words, they all 'lose money', and it's not a fact, because it is extremely difficult to calculate the net economic benefits of such a program. It is simply econometric modelling. I suggest you go back to reading the links I provided in my first post to further understand these distinctions.

As I am "categorically false" about this, no doubt it will not trouble you to provide me with an example and evidence of net economic benefit. And not a 'mathematical' one, but hopefully an economic one. And independent and ex post as well if you wouldn't mind.

(5) "Some are heavily dependent on public dollars, while others are not." Ok. And which will it be in the case of Boston? And where will that public spending take place? It should not be difficult to begin to identify the funding sources.

(6) I really didn't see a counterargument here from you. The MBTA has identified needs, none of which relate to the Olympics. Again if I am wrong please provide some evidence.

My original post referenced the idea that the need for infrastructure improvements related to the Olympics are not consistent with those of the commuters or even tourists in this city. While some overlap is possible, by definition they will not completely overlap and therefore investment will be wasted. If we (Boston) have infrastructure needs, let's identify them, finance them and build them. The Olympics are an expensive irrelevance to the city's needs.

(7) "Public support for such projects could likely be increased by an Olympic bid." - Political support, as distinct from public support, may increase with an Olympic bid, however this deceptive practice is a poor foundation for economic development. As in (6), needs will be poorly matched, the local citizens or the Fed's will eventually figure out that money has been wasted and will resent it.

(8) "Its only exorbitant if the costs are more than the people who are paying said costs are willing to bear." - I am glad we agree. Go back to point (4) and you might understand this a bit better now. And two other points.

I am sure you understand opportunity costs - so we'd like to do better than 1% (say 10% over 10 years) gain on $1000b of investments.

Another important point I was trying to make. Even if the ex ante net economic returns were justified, given the fiscal position of the state and the uncertainty of such an analysis, it would be foolish for the state to take on too much further debt to finance this investment. Realistically say $12b (probably not too excessive). But the net economic benefit has to be collected over many years and in largely indirectly way meaning the government bears a significant burden / risk / exposure from such a policy. Ask Moody's if Mass could float $1000b of bonds, with the expectation of getting it back in 10 years, the answer is no.

(9) "Are you saying that the population can only bear so much attention on any given topic?" - yes.

Again, are our attention spans so short that we can only handle x number of public topics? - again, yes.

I have yet to find research supporting this position, but I think it's fairly obvious if one examines political discourse up close or at length for any serious time. When Obama / Congress are debating 'fiscal cliff' issues, then transportation policy, normal budgeting, other types of laws, trade policies etc, necessarily are dropped until a later date.

I don't understand the irony to which you refer. But not to be misunderstood, I am happy, and strongly support an appropriate political dialogue around proposing a bid (another waste of money). Although the Boston 2024 entity with its construction and other special interests is not an appropriate instrument (not sure who is on the governor's committee -ed.).

(10) "I'm curious: is there such a thing as a necessary party?" - excellent, glad we agree.

To summarise - no party is necessary, that is the point. But if the people who are paying for the party want to put it on, then as long as they know the cost in advance, bear the full burden, and can afford it, I am happy to agree with it.

But let's be crystal clear that this is what's happening - it's not redevelopment, or infrastructure building, free infrastructure or regeneration.

It would appear we agree on the bulk of the arguments here. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to put forth these arguments. The argument against hosting or even bidding for the Olympics are so clear, I think it's good to finally air them on this thread.
 
Wait, what??

John Fish, March 2013:





John Fish, November 2013:


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PP,

Thanks for showing up and telling us how clear it is that we should no longer discuss the Olympics. Please feel free to stop the discussion yourself, although we might carry on without you, ok? We won't show up out of the blue on your forum and force you to talk about it, I promise.
 
PP,

Thanks for showing up and telling us how clear it is that we should no longer discuss the Olympics. Please feel free to stop the discussion yourself, although we might carry on without you, ok? We won't show up out of the blue on your forum and force you to talk about it, I promise.


Your sarcasm and negativity are noted. No where did I mention that you should not discuss the Olympics. In fact in my last post I said "[So I am not] misunderstood, I am happy, and strongly support an appropriate political dialogue around proposing a bid".

I did however bring a contrary perspective and one that was almost entirely missing from this thread. It is also a viewpoint which is important if you care about 'a better Boston' and the impact the Olympics might have in this city.

I have no interest in engaging with this attitude so I will post no further on this topic.

Have a great weekend.
 
And let's not forget the water polo arena (c $50m). The London one was completely dismantled. And let's not forget basketball, BMX, beach volleyball, handball, kayaking / whitewater arena etc.
Citing these sports right here is pretty telling that you just don't want anything built, no matter what the cost. Citing things like beach volleyball seems to imply you don't want even a single dollar spent, period. I can't help notice in all your arguments you have not identified a single solution to anything, just more and more problems.

BMX - Push around some dirt and metal bleachers. Wachusett or one of the other local ski areas might be interested in helping to fund this, since it would give them revenue in the summer. Mountain Creek in NJ has something similar, for both BMX and Mtn Biking. Dirt cheap, pun intended.
Beach Volleyball - Sand and metal bleachers. We already have the sand since, ya know, we're on the ocean.
Kayaking/whitewater - I wasn't aware that you needed an "arena". Is this the hunger games or something? River. The end.
Basketball - We already have the Garden, although most likely the finals would take place in Springfield as a nod towards it being the origin of the sport. Springfield could really use some investment and tourism dollars, so building something new wouldn't be the worst thing, although there may already be an arena that could be expanded, I don't know.


(1) I am not considering the history of only one Olympics, but rather many (although the circumstances vary so widely one must be careful when using direct comparisons here). I am referencing details from the London games for the clear reasons which I have already stated. It is far better to use specifics for discussion rather than vague generalities. Feel free to reference the details from a Games with which you are more familiar.

Where are your numbers, your citations? Are you "considering" history while sitting on the pot daydreaming or do you actually have cold, hard numbers? Why do you insist on using London as an example when what they did is near _the_exact_opposite_ of how a successful Olympics would be structured here in Boston (ie: using/modifying existing venues, partnering with local schools and teams to reduce public funds to as near nill as possible).


(2) Having read many of the local university Institutional Master Plans recently I did not recall any reference to a new aquatic center, but feel free to correct me. And it is unlikely they would build one for $450m and 2500 seats. No doubt they would be happy to accept one that is already at low cost to themselves.
We have been throwing around the idea of constructing one in Eastie at the piers behind Maverick that could be used by the BPS, local colleges, and the public. In lieu of that, a college that has an outmoded one would suffice. No, the college isn't going to front the full cost. But they would front the cost they were going to invest anyway, thereby reducing costs in general.


"By your logic, no city on Earth should ever host the Olympics." - agreed, unless they are happy to spend the money on a party with no expectation of seeing a good return on it. If a community makes this decision through its accepted political process than so be it. But let's not fool ourselves with all of the other excuses that are put forth about re-use, spark redevelopment, legacy, etc.
No one is talking about spending billions on new construction, as has foolishly been done with a lot of the recent olympics. No one here has talked about it sparking development (which is happening at a pretty steady pace regardless), and Boston doesn't need any more "legacy" (we're half of your average american history textbook). It's about showcasing our wonderful city and putting some much needed polish on it.


(3) Stadium - temporary seating and reuse is one of the most overused excuses in Olympic developments and it rarely works. The $780m London Olympic Stadium was built 'modulary' as you suggest, and in a city with 6 premier league football teams and with clear discussions prior to 2012 about future development, and there is still no clear user slated for it after 16 months.
Well that was pretty fucking stupid of London. We DO have a clear use lined up for the stadium. The Revolution soccer team. Kraft would undoubtedly fund the majority of the costs, other then the extra seating that would need to be removed after. Which is perfectly fair.


(4) "Its very simple: ..." - except that I gave you a clear definition to work with and you simply ignored the question. Your formulation, is simply wrong in economic terms. The profit of the Locog (Olympic organizing entity - whatever it is) is irrelevant to whether the host region benefits from a Games. Accounting and economic profits are not the same thing.

As far as I can tell (we can trade academic papers if you would like), going back to 1992 no Olympics has had a significant (or maybe a negative) net economic benefit to the region. In other words, they all 'lose money', and it's not a fact, because it is extremely difficult to calculate the net economic benefits of such a program. It is simply econometric modelling. I suggest you go back to reading the links I provided in my first post to further understand these distinctions.

As I am "categorically false" about this, no doubt it will not trouble you to provide me with an example and evidence of net economic benefit. And not a 'mathematical' one, but hopefully an economic one. And independent and ex post as well if you wouldn't mind.
You guys can squabble about the semantics of how calculating "Capital Costs + Operating Costs - Revenue = Profit" till the end of days. Until someone actually posts numbers, its all hot air. I'm glad you have "academic papers". Until you cite them, it doesn't really matter.


(5) "Some are heavily dependent on public dollars, while others are not." Ok. And which will it be in the case of Boston? And where will that public spending take place? It should not be difficult to begin to identify the funding sources.
The latter... DUH. If we can't do it with the majority of funding coming from private sources it shouldn't be done at all. Which has pretty much been the entire point of this thread - to figure out how to do this as cheaply as possible with the greatest benefit. The public spending would mostly go to infrastructure improvements: the subway, the roads, the ferries, and our exploding electrical and water mains. Things that need to be done anyway, but are pushed aside thanks to shiny political talking point quagmires like South Coast Rail.
Funding sources? The many media conglomerates that permeate our city. Gillette. Bob Kraft. The Universities. Alllllll the New England brewers. Suffolk Construction (perhaps not directly, but I bet they will bid cheap to get the contracts). New Balance. I could keep going on and on.

(6) I really didn't see a counterargument here from you. The MBTA has identified needs, none of which relate to the Olympics. Again if I am wrong please provide some evidence.
Uhm... what? The things that are broken with the T for the average commuter are EXACTLY the things that would need to be fixed for the Olympics. New rolling stock for the Red, Green and Orange Lines. Blue Line to Charles and Lynn. Green Line to Route 16. New ops infrastructure so signals aren't throwing out random stop codes, switches aren't breaking for no reason, and electrical substations aren't bursting into flames. Working through the massive backlog of maintenance. Getting the Urban Ring going. Turning the Silver Line into a real transportation system. Fixing the issues getting in and out of the Seaport. Reopening the extra station egress points at Arlington, Chinatown, Hynes, etc. Fixing Park Street so all four tracks can be used to reduce bunching. The list goes on an on. None of this relates to the Olympics directly, other than that it gives a fixed date that all this shit needs to be finished by or risk international embarrassment. Which works a whole hell of a lot better then the current system of throwing hundreds of thousands of dollars at studies every couple years and then saying they have to expand more commuter rail parking lots instead. If you look around at a lot of the comments, even on the Herald, even detractors admit that if it fixes the T, it would be worth it.

My original post referenced the idea that the need for infrastructure improvements related to the Olympics are not consistent with those of the commuters or even tourists in this city.
Wrong. See above.

While some overlap is possible, by definition they will not completely overlap and therefore investment will be wasted.
Nope.

If we (Boston) have infrastructure needs, let's identify them, finance them and build them. The Olympics are an expensive irrelevance to the city's needs.
Lot's of repetition, eh? Just to reiterate: The needs have been identified going back to the 1940s. It hasn't been done thanks almost entirely to politics, not the real needs. Ride the T. The Olympics should be irrelevant, but they are a unifying force to get_shit_done. Is that unfortunate? Yes. But it is the state of things.

(7) "Public support for such projects could likely be increased by an Olympic bid." - Political support, as distinct from public support, may increase with an Olympic bid, however this deceptive practice is a poor foundation for economic development. As in (6), needs will be poorly matched, the local citizens or the Fed's will eventually figure out that money has been wasted and will resent it.
The public support is there in every commuter who rides the T. It's been there longer then most people on this board have been alive. Politics are the only thing stopping most of the projects I listed above from getting done. And again, what the hell are you talking about that will not be used? The infrastructure that needs to be fixed needs to be fixed regardless. I'm repeating myself more than you.
 
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Your sarcasm and negativity are noted.

Pot, might I introduce you to kettle?

I have no interest in engaging with this attitude so I will post no further on this topic.

I have a hunch you made only the most cursory examination of this discussion, because there have been several different objections discussed over the course of it.
 
1) People continue to come here to criticize the plans b/c if we didn't, they'd start actually believing this is a feasible idea.

2) Do the actual residents of Boston get a vote on this or be able to at least voice their reservations?

3) I like a guy to take me out a couple times before he gets in my pants. How about we cool off on the Olympics talk until we have actually hosted a mega-event even a tenth of its size?
 
^ You mean an event like the DNC, Boston Marathon, World Series, Stanley Cup, World Series victory parade, Freedom Rally, First Night, or Fourth of July?
 
The DNC was a catastrophe.

The only other equitable comparison is to the WS victory parade(s), which, if I remember correctly, required our public transit system to run overtime and with extra trips .. all for free since they opened the gates and allowed people on and off for free.

Thank you, Economist!

The Games have evolved into an enormous logistical and marketing enterprise with a veneer of amateur competition and public interest.
 
The world series victory parade was in the morning. Why and how did it require the T to run overtime?
 
Ron, unless you have information to the contrary, I'm going to assume that the T had to pay its employees extra to work on a Saturday, when there is a separate schedule for buses and the commuter rail.

From Boston.com:

Parade planners are urging people to use public transit to get into the parade area. The MBTA said it was finalizing plans for the “rolling rally,” but said it would be providing extra subway and commuter rail service so Red Sox fans could throng the city.

See more at: http://www.boston.com/metrodesk/201...fZzqKBcRnn5AK/story.html#sthash.l6HcCie7.dpuf
 
Extra staff, and shorter headways isn't the same thing as "overtime", nor is it "opening the gates". The T does do that on First Night though.
 
Oh, I see. I wrote "overtime" when I meant extra staff and shorter headways. Sry.

Okay, it does that when there are big crowds.

Let's not forget, the SHUT DOWN THE ORANGE LINE during the DNC. Well, but then they opened it back up for "VIPs". So, yeah.
 
3) I like a guy to take me out a couple times before he gets in my pants. How about we cool off on the Olympics talk until we have actually hosted a mega-event even a tenth of its size?

Could you list some events that cities generally host that will rise to the standard to satisfy you?
 
Aside from infrastructure and venues are there enough hotels in the region to handle the number of expected visitors?
 
The IOC application or letter I saw online says there has to be 45,000+ hotel rooms in the area. One of the vacation bureaus says there are 36,000 "in greater Boston". Greater Boston doesn't include NH or RI, I wouldn't think. Given they are just 45 minutes away (and, accessible by commuter rail, at least RI - and its airport) I think they'd be included in any bid ... and there's at least another 1,000 rooms planned for Boston, right now?
 

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