Boston Population Trends & Discussion

This makes a lot of hay, but also MSAs are a really arbitrary and inconsistent measure. Using CSAs, which are also wonky measures, Boston is still 6th.

Boston's MSA excludes Worcester and Providence (including the commuter towns in Bristol County), but does include counties in New Hampshire.
 
What really makes these entities extremely arbitrary is that they use counties as building blocks. Counties are such large blocks and defining each county as a binary (yes/no) member or non-member of a statistical area is silly and arbitrary.

For example, San Bernardino County, California is larger in area than nine states! But, with how CSAs and MSAs are defined, counties like these have to be either included or left out, all-or-nothing. In the case of San Bernardino County, it is included in the Los Angeles-Long Beach CSA even though the furthest part of the county is in the middle of the desert, 260 miles from Los Angeles, and can easily take over 7 hours to drive from there to Los Angeles! Insanity.

Due to the inherent imprecision of using counties as building blocks in CSAs and MSAs, urban areas are a far superior classification that much more closely matches the population of a city and its "suburbs." Urban areas are built with more precise building blocks: census tracts and census blocks.

The Boston urban area is defined, as of 2010, as having ~4.2 million people and being the 10th most populous in the nation.

To demonstrate how heavy-handed CSAs and MSAs are: Boston's CSA includes Hill, New Hampshire! The MSA includes New Durham, New Hampshire, but does not include Easton, Massachusetts.

The granularity of the urban area definition rectifies these obvious faults.
 
I really like Urban Areas. [EDIT And that it WORKED to cut-paste a table from Wikipedia into Archboston...no more "code" tags!]
Amazing: Miami as the 5th largest urban area, and actually has a denser pop/sqmi than Boston by virtue of Miami having both more people and less square area.
I'm guessing it is a mix of Miami's "high rise living" and that other than the beaches, they don't have a whole lot of preserved parkland?
Meanwhile, only Atlanta is sprawlier (less dense) than Boston. How did that happen?

Urban areas of the United States of America[1]
RankName[Note 1]Population
(2010 Census)
Land Area
(km²)
Land Area
(sq mi)
Density
(Population / km²)
Density
(Population / sq mi)
Central City
Population
(2010 Census)
Central City
Pop % of
Urban Area
Central City
Land Area
Central City
Land Area % of
Urban Area
1
New YorkNewark, NY–NJ–CT–PA​
18,351,2958,936.03,450.22,053.65,318.98,175,13344.5%302.6438.8%
212,150,9964,496.31,736.02,702.56,999.33,792,62131.2%46827%
3
Chicago, IL–IN–WI​
8,608,2086,326.72,442.81,360.63,524.02,695,59831.3%2279.3%
4
Miami, FL​
5,502,3793,208.01,238.61,715.24,442.4399,4577.3%362.9%
5
Philadelphia, PA–NJ–DE–MD​
5,441,5675,131.71,981.41,060.42,746.41,526,01628%1346.8%
65,121,8924,607.91,779.11,111.52,878.91,197,81623.4%34019.1%
7
Houston, TX​
4,944,3324,299.41,660.01,150.02,978.52,099,45142.5%63938.5%
8
Washington, DC–VA–MD​
4,586,7703,423.31,321.71,339.93,470.3681,17014.9%614.6%
9
Atlanta, GA​
4,515,4196,851.42,645.4659.01,706.9420,0039.3%1335%
10
Boston, MA–NH–RI–CT​
4,181,0194,852.21,873.5861.72,231.7617,59414.8%482.6%
11
Detroit, MI​
3,734,0903,463.21,337.21,078.22,792.5713,77719.1%13810.3%
 
Last edited:
I really like Urban Areas. [EDIT And that it WORKED to cut-paste a table from Wikipedia into Archboston...no more "code" tags!]
Amazing: Miami as the 5th largest urban area, and actually has a denser pop/sqmi than Boston by virtue of Miami having both more people and less square area.
I'm guessing it is a mix of Miami's "high rise living" and that other than the beaches, they don't have a whole lot of preserved parkland?
Meanwhile, only Atlanta is sprawlier (less dense) than Boston. How did that happen?

Urban areas of the United States of America[1]
RankName[Note 1]Population
(2010 Census)
Land Area
(km²)
Land Area
(sq mi)
Density
(Population / km²)
Density
(Population / sq mi)
Central City
Population
(2010 Census)
Central City
Pop % of
Urban Area
Central City
Land Area
Central City
Land Area % of
Urban Area
1
New YorkNewark, NY–NJ–CT–PA​
18,351,2958,936.03,450.22,053.65,318.98,175,13344.5%302.6438.8%
212,150,9964,496.31,736.02,702.56,999.33,792,62131.2%46827%
3
Chicago, IL–IN–WI​
8,608,2086,326.72,442.81,360.63,524.02,695,59831.3%2279.3%
4
Miami, FL​
5,502,3793,208.01,238.61,715.24,442.4399,4577.3%362.9%
5
Philadelphia, PA–NJ–DE–MD​
5,441,5675,131.71,981.41,060.42,746.41,526,01628%1346.8%
65,121,8924,607.91,779.11,111.52,878.91,197,81623.4%34019.1%
7
Houston, TX​
4,944,3324,299.41,660.01,150.02,978.52,099,45142.5%63938.5%
8
Washington, DC–VA–MD​
4,586,7703,423.31,321.71,339.93,470.3681,17014.9%614.6%
9
Atlanta, GA​
4,515,4196,851.42,645.4659.01,706.9420,0039.3%1335%
10
Boston, MA–NH–RI–CT​
4,181,0194,852.21,873.5861.72,231.7617,59414.8%482.6%
11
Detroit, MI​
3,734,0903,463.21,337.21,078.22,792.5713,77719.1%13810.3%

A huge percentage of those high-rise living Miami folks are seasonal to 6 months + 1 day (reported) per year. ;)

In the meantime, downtown residential has been a relatively new thing to Boston.
 
It's really just the cost of living that's slowing growth. There's always a demand to live in cities like Boston, NYC and SF but if I have to pay $2600+/mo for a 1 bedroom, then no thanks. Sprawling cities have the benefit of a wider price range in housing that dense cities do not have. Yeah, there's going to be techies and execs that can afford those prices but the median household income is far below what is needed to comfortably afford those apartments. I'd move to cheaper cities like Austin if the political environment in the states of many of these fast growing cities wasn't at the complete opposite side of the spectrum and if there are higher proportion of PoC
 
I really like Urban Areas. [EDIT And that it WORKED to cut-paste a table from Wikipedia into Archboston...no more "code" tags!]
Amazing: Miami as the 5th largest urban area, and actually has a denser pop/sqmi than Boston by virtue of Miami having both more people and less square area.
I'm guessing it is a mix of Miami's "high rise living" and that other than the beaches, they don't have a whole lot of preserved parkland?

Meanwhile, only Atlanta is sprawlier (less dense) than Boston. How did that happen?

My old stomping ground: I grew up in South Florida. While there are more things I admire about Greater Boston's built environment than Greater Miami's, there are a handful of policies they implement better that have not only contributed to their population growth, but also serve more favorably for it to continue growing for now.

1. Urban Development Boundary - South Florida's metro area extends 120 miles from north to south, but is hemmed in by the ocean (including Biscayne National Park) on one side and the Everglades on the other (wetlands protected by either Everglades National Park, the South Florida Water Management District, Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, agriculture reserve(s), and other environmental protections). South Florida metro area never goes wider than ~20 miles east-to-west. While the urban area was 1238 square miles as you noted before, the counties that urban area is part of total 5,189 square miles; more than 3/4 of South Florida is preserved/un-urbanized.

2. Regional Governance - the prominence of regional governance and operation across South Florida is apparent when examining municipal services: utilities, police, education, transportation, etc. I'm not saying one region does governance better than the other; however, South Florida has been far more elastic to respond to needs at a regional-level because it is not constrained in the same way as Greater Boston municipalities are by different jurisdictions and exclusivity of services. For example, compare the very long List of School Districts in Massachusetts to the List of School Districts in Florida: there are only 3 school districts that make up all of South Florida (Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach County--which summed up actually made the second-largest student population in the country in 2016). Without debating the merits of these municipal/regional decisions, the fact is that simplifying the governance structure in South Florida (as other Sun Belt regions evolved to do, too) has made them more effective at responding to growth... dare I say even benefited some communities from facing some equity concerns we face in Greater Boston.

3. NIMBY vs. YIMBY - anecdotally, I think the attitudes in South Florida to new development differ greatly from the attitudes in New England. Construction is a bonafide industry down there. Boston developers may need to present their proposed projects to impact advisory groups, architectural critics, and a long list of stakeholders for years before they can win approval. In South Florida, though? I wouldn't go so far as to say folks are apathetic to all new development, but the process is far more favorable to new construction. While communities up here are zoned in such a way to use variances as a reactionary bargaining chip for developers to front the cost of more community amenities, Miami's Miami 21 form-based zoning code adopted 11 years ago has simplified the path for new development.

4. Affordability - put plainly, South Florida overall is a cheap place to live. Thanks in part to its warm climate and pro-development attitude, the pace at which South Florida has added new housing region-wide over the last generation has reduced the barriers to entry in buying real estate (or renting) that--unfortunately--Greater Boston struggles with. And when a region like South Florida lacks the net industrial diversity and specialization that a region like Greater Boston possesses, it means affordability is a critical factor to the people moving there. I'm not debating the merits of quality of life or actual affordability picture facing residents there vs. here; on its face, South Florida looks to be more affordable than Greater Boston.

5. Outlook - anecdotally once again, it is my professional observation that many South Florida residents have an outlook of "now" whereas Greater Boston has an outlook of "the future." The single-greatest threat to our existence is climate change, an inescapable reality for both regions. Despite a topographic advantage to South Florida, Greater Boston leaders and Commonwealth policymakers place a greater priority on resilience, sustainability, and proactively adapting to the threats of sea-level rise than the demonstrated apathy South Florida's leaders present. Despite rising king tides every fall creeping higher in Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach, flood insurance premiums down there continue to unfaze new homebuyers. As salt water slowly creeps into the Everglades (remember South Florida Water Management District--that's their drinking water supply), there is going to be a potable water supply crisis that impacts 6.5 million South Florida residents long before they react to sea level rise eroding their beaches. There is an irresponsibility among mortgage lenders, insurers, and real estate agents down there that more emphasis is not placed on the crisis South Florida faces 10-15 years from now because their outlook isn't that far ahead... it's legit only for "now."

Greater Boston is municipally-driven instead of regionally-cohesive like South Florida; its NIMBY community might have an attitude toward preservation (historic, natural, "don't change") that isn't as robust down south; it's more expensive to buy a home up here not only because of objectively antiquated zoning regs, but also because of self-imposed policies that drive up the cost of new housing/transportation (climate change resiliency, housing equity, environmental preservation, union-labor, et al); and it's too darned cold up here. Be all that as it may, I genuinely believe point #5 will be the difference-maker over the long-term population trends over the 21st century, and it's only a matter of time before growth trends once again change. South Florida may have milder winters, but it also has meaner hurricanes. It might have more affordable McMansions to purchase, but it also has less specialization in higher-wage industries. It might have better complete streets implementation, but it also has higher vehicular fatality rates than most parts of the country. South Florida might have a higher population density than Greater Boston; however, amid a disconnected transit network, sea of parking structures, and mis-match of equitable land uses, South Florida continues to double-down on sprawl for growth. Up here, Boston is done sprawling.
 
Last edited:
Miami... actually has a denser pop/sqmi than Boston by virtue of Miami having both more people and less square area.
I'm guessing it is a mix of Miami's "high rise living" and that other than the beaches, they don't have a whole lot of preserved parkland?
Meanwhile, only Atlanta is sprawlier (less dense) than Boston. How did that happen?
This is due to higher density suburbs. Look at Los Angeles vs. New York, and you'll see the same thing. In each case, the city perceived as higher density (NYC/Boston) has a very high density core, but then it becomes extreme low density just a short distance away. Whereas Miami and Los Angeles have a more consistent moderate density across the entire geography.
 
Early estimates say that the state Masshole population has gone down slightly. Would not be surprised if the Boston population is down as well.
 
So if Boston is building so many units 4-10k per year, how is it's population plateauing. Hopefully, when all these units come online in 2022-2023 the population continues its 2011-2014 growth trajectory.

But good past 13 months. If last year we approved 10,100 units.. this year we already approved ~5k. Good pace so far.

Loving all the residential towers (The Alcott, One Dalton, Millenium Tower, Causeway, Garden Garage, etc) and not so towers (Midtown Hotel, Charlestown redvelopment, evrything South End and Seaport, etc).

I worry though because after this current wave of towers which include:
  • Winthrop Center (691ft)
  • South Station Tower (678ft)
  • One Congress (647ft)
  • Garden Garage (485ft)
  • Raffles (449ft)
Do we have many more further down the pipeline? I only count one tower that was proposed in the past 18 months over 400ft, which was the Pinnacle (600ft).

Is our pipeline for over 130-meter towers (~400ft) drying up?
 
Last edited:
So if Boston is building so many units 4-10k per year, how is it's population plateauing. Hopefully, when all these units come online in 2022-2023 the population continues its 2011-2014 growth trajectory.

But good past 13 months. If last year we approved 10,100 units.. this year we already approved ~5k. Good pace so far.

Loving all the residential towers (The Alcott, One Dalton, Millenium Tower, Causeway, Garden Garage, etc) and not so towers (Midtown Hotel, Charlestown redvelopment, evrything South End and Seaport, etc).

I worry though because after this current wave of towers which include:
  • Winthrop Center (691ft)
  • South Station Tower (678ft)
  • One Congress (647ft)
  • Garden Garage (485ft)
  • Raffles (449ft)
Do we have many more further down the pipeline? I only count one tower that was proposed in the past 18 months over 400ft, which was the Pinnacle (600ft).

Is our pipeline for over 130-meter towers (~400ft) drying up?


"Plateauing"???? It's up 75,000, (12.1%), in the past 10 years, 2010-2019. And I'll be willing to bet, most of that growth took place in the 2nd half.


By the way, you listed the flashy downtown towers, but the real growth in housing/population is taking place in East Boston, Charlestown, Allston, Brighton, Roxbury, Brighton, Dorchester, Southie, etc. in the 3-6 story landscrapers that are becoming so prevalent.
 
Last edited:
"Plateauing"???? It's up 75,000, (12.1%), in the past 10 years, 2010-2019. And I'll be willing to bet, most of that growth took place in the 2nd half.


By the way, you listed the flashy downtown towers, but the real growth in housing/population is taking place in East Boston, Charlestown, Allston, Brighton, Roxbury, Brighton, Dorchester, Southie, etc. in the 3-6 story landscrapers that are becoming so prevalent.

YOY 2012-2015 Boston saw an average increase of ~10-14k people a year. From 2016 to 2017 the increase was 8k, and from 2017 to 2018 the increase was 3.5k, and from 2018 to 2019 it was under 1.5k

Boston's Population 2010-2019 per the Census: https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-total-cities-and-towns.html
621,048630,505642,955653,002662,855670,491679,848687,788691,147692,600

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/boston-ma-population Quick Graph

And I was specifically talking about residential towers. Im aware 3-9 story buildings encompassed >85% of the residential growth in Boston this decade.
 
Last edited:
YOY 2012-2015 Boston saw an average increase of ~10-14k people a year. From 2016 to 2017 the increase was 8k, and from 2017 to 2018 the increase was 3.5k, and from 2018 to 2019 it was under 1.5k

Boston's Population 2010-2019 per the Census: https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-total-cities-and-towns.html
621,048630,505642,955653,002662,855670,491679,848687,788691,147692,600

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/boston-ma-population Quick Graph

And I was specifically talking about residential towers. Im aware 3-9 story buildings encompassed >85% of the residential growth in Boston this decade.

Looks like I lost that bet 😉. Thanks for the data.
 
It's always important to remember that children are a key driver of population growth and change. The reason Boston's population was so high "back in the day" was that a large percentage of units were packed full of a whole bunch of kids. I'm making these numbers up for the sake of demonstration, but a triple-decker in gentrified JP or Southie that today houses maybe 8 or 9 people may have realistically been expected to house 15 in the mid-20th century. So even though Boston's population is more than 100k off its all-time high, Boston's adult population is easily way higher than it has ever been. And when you look at workers instead of adults, the record population gets even higher.

Fertility rates get lower every year and average household sizes get smaller. People are waiting longer to have families, and when they do have families they're having fewer kids. This is true generally, and it's even more pronounced for people who choose to live in the city and for people of higher socioeconomic status. As Boston is a city that is gentrifying (i.e., the population is shifting towards higher socioeconomic status) this all gets even further compounded. So given all of these trends, we need an increase in units just to keep population steady, and increased units have decreasing returns on population over time.
 

Back
Top