Consolidating some data from that table into plausible extensions (not including infills on active CR lines). Direct distance and rail distance to the terminal, new rail distance, population (of listed municipalities only), and when the last service was operated. On these metrics alone, SCR and Manchester are very similar on mileage and population. However, Manchester will likely be a more valuable extension for several reasons:
- More of the new population is closer to Boston: Nashua (115k) at 35 miles and Chelmsford (36k) at 22 miles, versus Taunton (59k) at 32 miles.
- No branching or single track, so higher frequency possible
- Enough demand to justify local-express pattern, shortening travel times compared to local-only, and giving Lowell express service as well
- Doesn't compete with Cape Cod service for limited slots
I popped this chart into Excel, and added a new column: Population divided by Distance, as a rough proxy for "bang for buck". I also added a percentage column to show how the different options compare to the top contender. I also added a Pop div by New column, to focus on specific "capital costs bang for buck."
(I also did some consolidation and adjustment of Distance numbers; for example, Falmouth will never be built on its own, so I modified it to be "Cape Main + Falmouth.")
Sorting by
Pop/New, we get this:
Line | Terminus | Crow | Distance | New | Population | Last service | Pop/Dist | | Pop/New | |
|---|
Essex | Danvers | 16 | 21.4 | 5.1 | 83,000 | 1968 | 3,878.50 | 71% | 16,274.51 | 100% |
NH Main Line | Manchester | 48 | 55.7 | 30.1 | 305,000 | 1967 (1981) | 5,475.76 | 100% | 10,132.89 | 62% |
South Coast Rail | FR/NB | 46/50 | 68 | 36.1 | 288,000 | 1958 | 4,235.29 | 77% | 7,977.84 | 49% |
Franklin | Milford | 28 | 36.8 | 6.1 | 47,000 | 1920 (1940) | 1,277.17 | 23% | 7,704.92 | 47% |
NH Main Line | Concord | 63 | 73.3 | 47.7 | 349,000 | 1967 (1981) | 4,761.26 | 87% | 7,316.56 | 45% |
Manchester and Lawrence
| Manchester Airport | 44 | 48.2 | 22.8 | 143,000 | 1953 | 2,966.80 | 54% | 6,271.93 | 39% |
Eastern Route
| Portsmouth | 52 | 56.9 | 20.6 | 78,000 | 1967 | 1,370.83 | 25% | 3,786.41 | 23% |
Cape Main Line | Hyannis | 63 | 78.5 | 42.9 | 137,000 | 1959 (1988) | 1,745.22 | 32% | 3,193.47 | 20% |
Agricultural Branch | Clinton | 32 | 45 | 23.6 | 73,000 | 1931 | 1,622.22 | 30% | 3,093.22 | 19% |
Cape Main Line and Falmouth
| Falmouth | 63/60 | 91 | 56.4 | 169,000 | 1959 (1988) | 1,857.14 | 34% | 2,996.45 | 18% |
Western Route | Dover | 59 | 67.1 | 34.2 | 78,000 | 1967 | 1,162.44 | 21% | 2,280.70 | 14% |
Unsurprisingly, the short extension to Danvers easily wins when measured based on New trackage, although it puts in a strong performance on overall Distance as well.
What is striking to me, however, is how much the Manchester extension towers over everything else, whether measured on overall Distance or New trackage.
If you remove the Danvers extension from consideration (it's somewhat of a different beast anyway), the numbers look like this:
And we see again that Manchester is head and shoulders above everything else, including SCR. Manchester requires less new trackage, has a bit more of a direct ROW, doesn't require branching to reach the full population, and has a larger population overall. (I ran an alternate calc that just imagined SCR service to New Bedford, and it plummets -- you only save ~10 miles of track/distance, and you lose a bit less than half the population.)
Other observations:
While it is true that Manchester beats out SCR, SCR still beats out everything else, easily. There is a very clear division between "Danvers, Manchester, Concord, SCR, and maybe Manchester Airport" and "everything else".
Milford illustrates the shortcomings of this analytical approach. While it scores well based on Pop vs New Trackage, it's dismal on Pop vs overall Distance; the travel Distance is over 30% greater than the Crow, and the Crow is the shortest on this list (aside from Danvers, which is also the only one within 128 -- again, a different beast).
The only other beyond-128 extension that has such a severe "Crow Cost" is the Agricultural Branch to Clinton, where Distance is 41% more than Crow. Manchester, Concord, Manchester Airport, and SCR (I think), as well as Portsmouth and Dover, all keep their Crow Costs below 20% (mostly around 15%). I personally believe those other extensions are still worthwhile, but I think this is a good illustration of why some folks might be more skeptical.
tl;dr: Lots of people live in Southern NH, and we should start running commuter rail trains there ASAP. Lots of people live on the South Coast, and we should start running commuter rail trains there ASAP.
[EDIT: Obligatory mention that this kind of analysis is intentionally back-of-the-napkin, and overlooks many salient factors. For instance, South Coast communities have consistently advocated for commuter rail for decades now, while New Hampshire has not. The Last Mile Problem comes into effect here -- do you have enough buses and/or enough parking + car ownership to get people to the station. Commuting patterns also matter -- not everyone who lives in Fall River works in Boston or wants to work in Boston. So don't take these calculations as gospel -- this is a conversational starting point, not a conclusion.]
