Copley Place Expansion and Tower | Back Bay

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West said:
hmm, I just thread-jacked the conversation onto a tangent about affordable housing, didn't I? Um, oops?

Back on topic: too bad about this tower, but not the end of the world. It doesn't seem Simon has ever had their heart in it.
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Your thread jacks are always the balls.
 
West said:
So I don't think Affordable housing would get hit so hard this time around, and you are right, the demand would still be there even if we saw a pop of bubble at the higher end of the market.
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Yes that's what I'm saying but as other people mentioned on that board before, when the demand for luxury housing weakens, this should mean that prices fall across the board so that it becomes affordable and more accessible to the average Joe but that's not true. Like Copley Place, what happens is developers cancel projects, putting a halt in supply growth so that prices don't bottom out and instead wait until the demand pushes prices back up. Where are the new supply of housing that supposedly will help lower the price of the middle to lower rungs of housing?

Recent report have shown that rent has stabilized (and even declined) recently in many areas of Boston. Perhaps this has triggered the postponement of this tower and if this is the case, which luxury project is the next to fall?

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/property/blog/2016/09/13/boston-rent-decrease/

Sorry I'm going off-topic. Just wondering if this will be the start of a trend.
 
I still don't believe this is a bubble pop. Sure Simon cancelled their project however the Columbus Center and the Pike Air Parcels might still be built. I think that this shows that developers aren't too irrational, if every single parcel with a proposal gets built than there would be a glut of apartments/condos in Boston. Even if just the Winthrop Millennium Tower/Four Seasons/Pierce/SST are built that is still a ton of luxury condos coming to the market in the same 5 year period.
 
I don't think is a cancellation, I think they are saying that they don't want to be competing for scarce resources in this development boom when there's no guarantee that they will be able to sell "luxury" units at a cost that will give them enough return to cover expenses. It may resurface in a few years.
 
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DAAAMN we were soo close. I really hope this isn't a sign that more significant projects are about to be cancelled except for the pierce and 1 dalton which are already under construction. Cross your fingers, we just have to get to 2017 and well see if the bubble has finally popped.
 
My guess is that the tower was put on the back shelf because most of the units were rental, the construction costs got to be too high because of structural engineering issues as bigpicture noted, and the rents would be prohibitively priced. And the numbers no longer worked when the developer/owner has to front the construction financing cost of the rentals going forwarded, in contrast to getting out with his money by selling the condos.

The ultra-high end market in Boston is being sustained (i.e., the difference between profit and loss) by buyers who don't live or work in Boston. If oil prices rebound to $100++, oligarchs and sheikhs may start parking their excess cash again.
 
I wonder if theyll come back like sst did with a different type of residential component.
 
any chance this is all b/s and they are hoping the city/state swoops in with some tax relief?
 
We need the Ghost Tower investor class from Asia to pull up the rear of our skyscraper market. Be very sad if our BIG TOWER construction falls to zero just because we built too many 15-20 story mid-rises.
 
It's actually probably for the better. Ten or 15 years from now this might be a much more attractive lot.
 
meddlepal said:
It's actually probably for the better. Ten or 15 years from now this might be a much more attractive lot.
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On the flip side, this has been the most attractive tower design of the past 10 years. (essentially the better proportioned residential version of the Pelli office tower) Hopefully it doesn't hit the scrap heap. I have been looking forward to this one for approximately 1/4 of my life at this point.
 
DZH22 said:
On the flip side, this has been the most attractive tower design of the past 10 years. (essentially the better proportioned residential version of the Pelli office tower) Hopefully it doesn't hit the scrap heap. I have been looking forward to this one for approximately 1/4 of my life at this point.
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This is why, like SST, I hope someone realizes that the BPDA approval and initial design work should not be wasted...and like SST, there's probably a 10-yr time limit on the approval. SST proves that investors can change, and designs can be adapted (e.g., # of condos vs office vs apartments), without throwing the whole thing out.
 
On the flip side, this has been the most attractive tower design of the past 10 years. (essentially the better proportioned residential version of the Pelli office tower) Hopefully it doesn't hit the scrap heap. I have been looking forward to this one for approximately 1/4 of my life at this point.
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True. This and Millenium were the only two towers I really cared about.

Simon's problem here is that they're not large scale residential developers. It's pretty apparent from the lack of progress they had no idea how to organize, finance, and get this project off the ground.

Simon obviously hold the cards... but options:

1. Sell air rights to experienced developer (not likely)
2. Do nothing (not likely long term... property too valuable)
3. Build in a decade or two when the property is even more valuable and there is probably an actual shortage of transit-friendly places that can support 900-1000+ feet towers. Not to mention the height will probably be necessary then because of the costs.
 
Bottom line, we have yet to complete a successful Air Right's project since copley Place. Can someone post an Air Rights scoreboard thread? So, we're 0 for what? 4, 5, 6, 7 over the past 33 years??

In my opinion, our economy should be able to accommodate decking of the Mass Pike from the Ted Williams Tunnel all the way back to B.U.

Is our abysmal recent track record an indictment of how our niimby politics, permitting + labor costs prohibit cost-challenged development/s?
 
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Perhaps. But I think your first two words provide the real answer... investor preference for cashing in on the "low hanging fruit".
 
Perhaps. But I think your first two words provide the real answer... investor preference for cashing in on the "low hanging fruit".
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Exactly. We're just stuck in a waiting game for the most part.
 
DZH22 said:
On the flip side, this has been the most attractive tower design of the past 10 years. (essentially the better proportioned residential version of the Pelli office tower) Hopefully it doesn't hit the scrap heap. I have been looking forward to this one for approximately 1/4 of my life at this point.
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It's so funny you mention a quarter of your life, and I was JUST thinking about this today. I moved to Boston from Nebraska in 1987, so almost 30 years!

Boston has improved and prospered immensely in the past 30 years.

I remember when all there was at Lechmere was a rundown store. You couldn't find any place decent to eat in Kendall Square or Park Square. (There was only a Bennigan's at Park Square.) I first moved to Somerville, which was known as Slummerville and NOT the cool hipster hangout it is today. I worked near the Prudential center that was an open air wind-blown plaza that had certainly seen better days. Copley Square was a concrete mess with a non-working fountain. Of course, elevated highways shadowed downtown and Charlestown. The Orange line elevated stopped being used the summer I moved here. Despite all that, I still fell in love with the city, and I think it's one of the best cities in the world.

I'm so VERY impressed by the level of development in Boston right now. (...the architectural merit is another story, but overall it's not terrible.) We are so lucky to have all the construction and development around us that I'm not too upset by the loss of this tower. Yes, I do agree it was one of the better designed proposals, but don't waste your YOUNG life regretting this too much! LOL
 
odurandina said:
Bottom line, we have yet to complete a successful Air Right's project since copley Place. Can someone post an Air Rights scoreboard thread? So, we're 0 for what? 4, 5, 6, 7 over the past 33 years??

In my opinion, our economy should be able to accommodate decking of the Mass Pike from the Ted Williams Tunnel all the way back to B.U.

Is our abysmal recent track record an indictment of how our niimby politics, permitting + labor costs prohibit cost-challenged development/s?
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The merano and victor are air rights parcels.

Not building this is going to really screw up the back bay skyline. With towers going up behind the pru and in front of the hancock its going to be two clusters with a glaring gap in the middle that almost goes right to ground level. This tower was going to tie everything together.
 
stick n move said:
The merano and victor are air rights parcels.
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True, but i think those should be categorized differently since they're being done years after their terra-steela decks were completed with tones of Fed.gov cash.

stick n move said:
Not building this is going to really screw up the back bay skyline. With towers going up behind the pru and in front of the hancock its going to be two clusters with a glaring gap in the middle that almost goes right to ground level. This tower was going to tie everything together.
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Ugh. What a blow. The Pike projects don't just suffer violent fierce nimby opposition, that opposition appears to be exceedingly effective. The cycle of run out the clock, and winning still hasn't been broken. It would appear by the time the permitting phase is complete, the developer/s are so badly wounded, they eventually bail.... I'm counting 0-4 on Back Bay/Fenway Pike towers (including Parcel 7 in the late '90s?) a few years ago at Mass Ave and Boylston. That really stinks.

btw, did any of you ever imagine 60 days ago, a certain waterfront skyscraper would be back... and this would be heading for the big sleep? ....And i can't help but think it would have been nice to have this out of the ground and several Seaport projects held over a few years or even until the next cycle.
 
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