COVID-19 Impacts on Logan, MBTA, and Boston travel and tourism

millerm277 said:
Not major, but presumably at least some of those cuts will be on Logan routes.

Bloomberg Article
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Millterm -- the uncertainty still abounds -- but in some ways [unrelated at the source of course] the current phenomena is resembling not so much SARS as the triggering phase of the Great Recession. The cutbacks in Major International Meetings, and Trade Expositions are starting to drive down the business demand for hotels and air connections. At the same time the fear pf crowds is starting to cause the tourist public to pull back from traveling for pleasure.

So -far the Olympics is still on as is the Boston Marathon.

However more than a few major public and professional events have already been cancelled including the March Meeting of the American Physical Society [100 + year history] and the International Sea Food Expo.
 
Are any of you less inclined to fly as a result of the virus? I'm not yet. I'm also youngish with a relatively normal immune system so I'm not at the highest risk. I flew as recently as Tuesday of this week (MCI-BOS) and internationally as recently as two weeks ago (CDG-BOS). I'm booked BOS-LHR in early May and not really worried about it but coworkers are telling me I'm nuts.
 
Lrfox said:
Are any of you less inclined to fly as a result of the virus? I'm not yet. I'm also youngish with a relatively normal immune system so I'm not at the highest risk. I flew as recently as Tuesday of this week (MCI-BOS) and internationally as recently as two weeks ago (CDG-BOS). I'm booked BOS-LHR in early May and not really worried about it but coworkers are telling me I'm nuts.
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I'm flying tomorrow, not to worried. Also flying in early April but got CFAR for that one in case it gets out of hand, and I never get travel insurance/CFAR. Haven't booked May yet. Still too early to tell.
 
I am not particularly worried about flying (no more so than any time during the flu season, and I take precautions all the time to wipe down local surfaces in the plane).

But I have European clients that are banning travel and large group meetings. So several European trips are cancelled (Belgium, Germany) and we are meeting by web conference.
 
Most importantly, will Eurovision be postponed?!?
 
I think COVID-19 will put some airlines out of business. Maybe even larger ones.
 
stellarfun said:
Flybe, a British regional airline, ceased operating today as a result of the virus.


Flew within Europe only.
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Flybe had been on its way out for a while. They were having serious difficulties at least a year ago. Although this likely exacerbated the situation let’s not pretend this was a healthy carrier suddenly going tits up solely because of COVID-19.
 
IATA now sees 2020 global revenue losses for the passenger business of between $63 billion (in a scenario where COVID-19 is contained in current markets with over 100 cases as of 2 March) and $113 billion (in a scenario with a broader spreading of COVID-19). No estimates are yet available for the impact on cargo operations.

IATA’s previous analysis (issued on 20 February 2020) put lost revenues at $29.3 billion based on a scenario that would see the impact of COVID-19 largely confined to markets associated with China. Since that time, the virus has spread to over 80 countries and forward bookings have been severely impacted on routes beyond China.
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www.iata.org

IATA Updates COVID-19 Financial Impacts -Relief Measures Needed-

Airline share prices have fallen nearly 25% since the outbreak began.
www.iata.org www.iata.org

It has been almost 20 years since the aviation industry faced such an existential threat. After the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, global air travel plummeted, and it took years for airlines to fully recover. Today there are worries that the coronavirus could have a similarly disastrous impact.

“At the end of last week, we started seeing very sharp declines,” Gary Kelly, chief executive of Southwest Airlines, said on CNBC on Thursday. “It has a 9/11-like feel.”
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www.nytimes.com

‘Almost Without Precedent’: Airlines Hit Hard by Coronavirus (Published 2020)

The effects could wipe out up to $113 billion in worldwide revenues this year, a trade group said, a new blow to the industry.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
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British Airways flight Milan to London on March 5 {Getty images}
 
I think everyone has pretty much decided, all at once, that we don't need or want to fly anywhere.
 
Highly recommed the following website for a "live" visual display of the COVID-19 "Pandemic"
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
Johns Hopkins has a visual display being constantly updated from all of the possible "first sources"
current status:

ArcGIS Dashboards Classic

www.arcgis.com www.arcgis.com

There is also a link to the data so you can go off and make your own models of the pandemic's progression, etc.
 
AMTRAK is suspending its non-stop Acela service between WAS and NYP.

The company said in a statement that demand for direct routes between the cities has decreased and that nonstop service will be suspended through May 26.

"As we are experiencing some reduced demand for our service, we are making temporary adjustments to our schedule, such as removing train cars or cancelling trains when there is a convenient alternative with a similar schedule that will have minimal impact to customers," Amtrak said in a statement.
 
stellarfun said:
AMTRAK is suspending its non-stop Acela service between WAS and NYP.

The company said in a statement that demand for direct routes between the cities has decreased and that nonstop service will be suspended through May 26.

"As we are experiencing some reduced demand for our service, we are making temporary adjustments to our schedule, such as removing train cars or cancelling trains when there is a convenient alternative with a similar schedule that will have minimal impact to customers," Amtrak said in a statement.
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Worth nothing that, if memory serves, the "non-stop WAS-NYP" service is in fact one round-trip per weekday to DC in the morning and NYC in the late afternoon. The service is relatively new, and therefore probably was still underutilized at this point.

Amtrak runs something like 30 other trains (very very rough estimate) from NYC to Washington every weekday, and those are all still unaffected.

It's an alarming headline that actually isn't nearly so crazy.
 
Mom flew to GRU yesterday and flight was about 60% full.

I checked the seat maps as they rolled out, and 19 seats were empty up front
 
The entirety of Italy is now under strict quarantine. All travelers entering Israel are subject to a 14 day quarantine; this includes Israeli citizens.
 
So somewhat off topic from the thread, but I wonder how this impacts Census 2020... If colleges are actually sending people home then Boston could come through as some 20% less populated than it actually is... Interesting to watch.

Also we've now got the state of emergency so it's not a good look for tourism right now.
 
I found this graphic (now available on Wikimedia Commons) very useful for saying how the problem in an epidemic is a logistical one, not a "how deadly vs flu" question

Covid-19-curves-graphic-social-v3.gif


The disease is probably no more serious (biologically) than flu. The problem is that we have 0% herd immunity and that healthcare workers, once exposed, will have to stay home from work. Not only is there the opportunity for the sick to overwhelm "normal" healthcare capacities and protocols, but also a likelihood that local care will be degraded by sick/exposed caregivers.
 
COVID-19 is more serious than annual influenza. Take Italy for example,

Covid-19 death toll jumps 36% in Italy
The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has jumped by 168 to 631, an increase of 36%, the Civil Protection Agency said on Tuesday, the largest rise in absolute numbers since the contagion came to light on 21 February, Reuters reports.

The total number of cases in Italy, the European country hardest hit by the virus in Europe, rose to 10,149 from a previous 9,172, an increase of 10.7%.

The head of the agency said that, of those originally infected, 1,004 had fully recovered compared to 724 the day before. Some 877 people were in intensive care against a previous 733.
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www.theguardian.com

UK minister tests positive as deaths outside China pass 1,000– as it happened

This blog is closed.
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

That's a mortality rate of about six percent, and a critical condition rate of about eight percent. SARS had a mortality rate of about 10 percent, MERS is about 30 percent. Apparently most MERS cases are hospitalized, so MERS is not running wild in the general population.

If annual influenza had a one percent mortality rate in the U.S. the number of deaths from a typical flu season of say 30 million cases would be 300,000 deaths rather than the 30,000 that do occur. Certainly, those percentages from Italy would be diluted if undetected and unrecorded infections were somehow counted. But even if a truer COVID mortality rate was near one percent, that's 10x higher than the 0.1 percent mortality of annual influenza.
 
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