An excerpt from an MGH doctor's blog- food for thought:
"Study of interest this week: MGH did a very cool combined nose-swab “PCR” study (which shows if you HAVE it) and an antibody study (which shows whether you HAD it) in Bostonians who had no symptoms and no previous tests.
They did testing in areas with both high and low levels of Covid. They found:
a) 1 in 38 people (2.6%) were PCR positive (ie had Covid right that minute even though they had no symptoms)
b) 1 in 10 people (10%) were antibody positive (had already had it but didn’t know).
They also found that people were more likely to have unknowingly already had Covid (eg have a positive antibody test) if in the last month they:
a) thought they had had it (I call this the “‘I told you so’ syndrome”)
b) had had a fever at some point
c) had lost their sense of smell or taste
So this says two things to me.
One, 90% of us in Boston haven’t been exposed to the virus yet (don’t have antibodies).
Two, the 1 in 38 number of people who turned out to be actively infected with no symptoms — this is a very interesting number. These are the people who are a real risk to you and me — they are almost definitely contagious.
Some people hear that number of probably contagious people —1 in 38 — and it feels super scary. But other people feel reassured. It’s all about perception of risk.
My cancer patients have taught me a lot about perception of risk.
Sometimes I tell Patient A in the morning that she has a one in eight chance of having her cancer come back and she says, “OMG, that’s so high, I’m doomed.” Then that same afternoon I tell Patient B the exact same thing — that she, too, has a one in eight chance of cancer recurrence — and she says, “OMG I love those odds, that’s fantastic, I’m so relieved.”
Same thing with this. Say you’re on the Red Line with 38 other people in your car. Do you look around and go, “OMG, one of these people has Covid right now and I’m going to get it for sure?” Or do you sit and smile to yourself and say, “37 of these people are totally healthy — I’ll be fine!”
People experience risk differently and that’s important to know about yourself when deciding what to do about reopening."