COVID-19 in Boston

Here's a Freakonomics-style question: where do all the 80 year olds still "live in the house they grew up in" or "live in the first house they bought" ? And what will happen when COVID is a once-in-100-year way to end a whole generation's run in a single 6-month period?

Italy is described as losing a whole generation at once (the Silent Generation, born 1930 to 1945--depression babies, whose childhood experience was depression and rationing, not winning the war, and therefore overshadowed by the G.I. Generation and their Boomer children). These are the parents of Gen X. Where do they live? They might live in the 2-family they grew up in in the Depression, or they might live in a Split-Level or Ranch or other "1960s Burb" house.

Not that they aren't dying already, but many were "circa 80" and nearing the decision to move into a home--but hadn't. The typical age of fatalities in Italy is centered on 80. What will happen to their neighborhood when they die suddenly? Will their Gen X children or Gen Z grandchildren turn over, or will "the heirs" sell to Gen Y (Millenials)?

Of the 30 homes on my block, about 5 are households headed by this generation. Is that a lot?
 
Arlington said:
Here's a Freakonomics-style question: where do all the 80 year olds still "live in the house they grew up in" or "live in the first house they bought" ? And what will happen when COVID is a once-in-100-year way to end a whole generation's run in a single 6-month period?
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The 80 year olds need to absolutely stay in their home and not venture outside. Period.
 
Charlie_mta said:
The 80 year olds need to absolutely stay in their home and not venture outside. Period.
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Yes, and so should everyone. And we all should probably plan on being homebound for 12 weeks (until June).

Indeed on my block of 30 households, It seems *everyone* has plans to be homebound, and all physical intervisitation (aka playdates) has stopped. Families of all ages are taking turns gardening, playing "catch" in the street, or walking their dog or strolling their baby stroller. (My family is doing solo bike rides (me) and jogging in pairs (household members))

Social isolation and physical inactivity are killers too, unfortunately, and might kill "offline" people during their quarantine, or even when after quarantine, 20% of survivors have lost a spouse, sibling, or close friend.

I don't think we're going to be spared from an unprecedented die-off biased towards the over-75 y.o.

I don't think our choice is whether it will happen, but whether it will be slower, more humane, and more human-scale, or big, fast, and overwhelming. I'm a big fan of Close Everything and Isolate Everybody to try to get to the better place, but it is only a half-solution.
 
Incidentally, Harvard called this correctly by asking everyone to move out. Places that just said "don't come back" are going to have a big mess of moldy whatever if the kids just dropped their stuff before their Spring Break.
 
I just want to say, that I don't know about the rest of you but I am depressed as all hell about the stoppage in construction. I mean, it's a small blip in the scheme of everything, yes that's true. However, I can't even tell you how many years the best thing I had going when I woke up was "another day of construction is happening!" It was really the one constant positive thing that I could always count on, knowing that Boston (and other cities) would look bigger every day, every week, every month...
Anybody else find themselves screaming silently 10x a day?
 
Arlington said:
Here's a Freakonomics-style question: where do all the 80 year olds still "live in the house they grew up in" or "live in the first house they bought" ? And what will happen when COVID is a once-in-100-year way to end a whole generation's run in a single 6-month period?

Italy is described as losing a whole generation at once (the Silent Generation, born 1930 to 1945--depression babies, whose childhood experience was depression and rationing, not winning the war, and therefore overshadowed by the G.I. Generation and their Boomer children). These are the parents of Gen X. Where do they live? They might live in the 2-family they grew up in in the Depression, or they might live in a Split-Level or Ranch or other "1960s Burb" house.

Not that they aren't dying already, but many were "circa 80" and nearing the decision to move into a home--but hadn't. The typical age of fatalities in Italy is centered on 80. What will happen to their neighborhood when they die suddenly? Will their Gen X children or Gen Z grandchildren turn over, or will "the heirs" sell to Gen Y (Millenials)?

Of the 30 homes on my block, about 5 are households headed by this generation. Is that a lot?
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This sounds right to me: the "Silent Generation" is the one that will be hit hardest in this crisis. The "Greatest / G.I. Generation" has mostly already passed (and those that are still with us are less likely to still live in their homes), while the Baby Boomers are at the younger end of the at-risk age range.

I think it's a real possibility that this crisis will, tragically, result in an increase in vacated homes. But any COVID-caused increase in vacant homes in the next year should also lead to fewer homes becoming vacated over the next decade. A rise in the death rate above its historic norm during the crisis should lead to a later dip in the death rate below its historic norm after the crisis, as deaths that would have happened over the next ten-ish years will be pushed forward to this year. This isn't at all to minimize the loss of people dying before their time; a shortened life is a tragedy no matter how many future years are lost.
 
DZH22 said:
I just want to say, that I don't know about the rest of you but I am depressed as all hell about the stoppage in construction. I mean, it's a small blip in the scheme of everything, yes that's true. However, I can't even tell you how many years the best thing I had going when I woke up was "another day of construction is happening!" It was really the one constant positive thing that I could always count on, knowing that Boston (and other cities) would look bigger every day, every week, every month...
Anybody else find themselves screaming silently 10x a day?
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If you have money to invest, the next few months might be something to look forward to. I grew up at a time when the The Great Recession came when I had no money (just entering college) and then by the time the Bull Market happened, stocks were way too expensive for me to enter.

Here's some advice, save money now and start looking at what stocks to invest in the next few months. This is really a chance for you to build a strong base for your portfolio.
 
DZH22 said:
I just want to say, that I don't know about the rest of you but I am depressed as all hell about the stoppage in construction....It was really the one constant positive thing that I could always count on, knowing that Boston (and other cities) would look bigger every day, every week, every month...
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It will be tough to not see the cranes in motion, to not see the buildings grow, and to have a lot of streetwall construction fencing to get that warped, weathered look that says "I was supposed to be temporary"

Many of the halted buildings won't resume in their planned form, and many fenced lots or dug foundations are going to be very sad to look at.

Painful. Like the Five Years' halt at the Filenes site, half demolished and sitting idle for 5 years (Construction halt Summer 2008, First Pour September 2013)
 
Fingers crossed that State Street Tower remains a go! I wonder how long before they are able to resume these projects. Things are definitely going to get worse before they get better. The virus numbers are accelerating globally. This site is the most up-to-date, comprehensive view of the catastrophe that is unfolding:
www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 125,575,245 Cases and 2,759,197 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
DZH22 said:
Fingers crossed that State Street Tower remains a go! I wonder how long before they are able to resume these projects. Things are definitely going to get worse before they get better. The virus numbers are accelerating globally. This site is the most up-to-date, comprehensive view of the catastrophe that is unfolding:
www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 125,575,245 Cases and 2,759,197 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
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I'm 100% sure SST is going to continue because they have a signed tenant. Unless State Street itself goes under, which they won't, it's going to happen because their lease at One Lincoln is expiring soon and WeWork has already signed a lease with One Lincoln so it isn't like State Street can back out of SST by remaining in place.
 
DZH22 said:
From 3/14. Someday in the far flung future, we'll see some progress here.

IMG_0565 by David Z, on Flickr

IMG_0567 by David Z, on Flickr
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DZH -- Far Flung Future -- aka Somewhere between mid April [highly optimistic] and late June [too pessimistic] -- all depends on two things:
  1. How fast the Social-Distancing slows the propagation of the virus as measured by the newly expanded testing
  2. How goes the trials of things like the anti-Malaria drugs at places like Boston Medical Center [so far very promising]
 
IDK how anti-malarial drugs (Trump was pushing chloroquine apparently) is going to help given that malaria is caused by a protzoan and not a virus.
 
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At some point we're going to have to start getting the economy back on track. We simply cannot take 12 to 18 months off and expect things to recover. We don't even know if we can develop an effective long-term vaccine for this virus.

I have no idea what the solution is going to be here, but it's probably not going to be one that favors keeping people alive.
 
The idea that this is a human crisis (of people, their illness, and their lost jobs) will, I hope, focus people's attention on helping people because they are people (and not based on, for example, their willingness to work for their benefits). This is a good time to be taking on national debt to fund all of us, who, individually, are mostly not in a position to borrow right now.
 
This might sound like an insensitive comment, but with sports already gone, I really hope construction on WST, SST, and other buildings doesn't get stopped for long. I need some entertainment in my life.
 
KriterionBOS said:
This might sound like an insensitive comment, but with sports already gone, I really hope construction on WST, SST, and other buildings doesn't get stopped for long. I need some entertainment in my life.
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Might want to figure out some new hobbies. I suspect everything that can be mothballed or cancelled will be.
 
I grew up on the Suburban frontier, (Rouse's Columbia Maryland) where a favorite weekend pastime was walking through houses under construction (and guessing the function of each room from unfinished state). And they build houses so fast that nobody thought to fence a construction site.

Since then I have only lived in the core of established northern cities, where are the rare new house site is always fenced (or has vigilant neighbors).

It has been hard to give up a beloved past time.

Boston will have a hiatus similar to the 2008 financial crisis, but there is also reason to believe biotech will lead a resurgence here at the end of the hiatus.
 
Some construction is ongoing, in Boston. Projects on Massport land, transportation projects. Even in California which is on a statewide 'lockdown', residential construction is considered 'essential' and is continuing. Unless Baker orders a halt statewide, and reading between the lines in the Globe article, it seems Walsh will restart construction with new safety rules in place, in about two weeks.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/22/business/construction-has-screeched-halt-not-everywhere/
 
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