COVID-19 in Boston

[George_Apley]

This is outstanding. Thank you for providing my morning's entertainment.

My sister-in-law lives in Atlanta. An M.D. at a general practice. And 4 months preggers with her first. She can't even get a preggers waiver to get off the standby list for hospital rotations before July because of the second-wave surge her practice's affiliate hospital is expecting because of people like you who don't feel the need to prevent futile deaths. If things go sideways down there as the trending is now starting to predict it will, she's going to be cramming that baby bump awkwardly into PPE and reporting for her 12-hour rotations just like the rest of the hapless front-line soldiers.

So thanks for reminding us who's really being inconvenienced here.

Right. If reopening too hastily overwhelms the health care system (which is the goal of shutting down in the first place) then the economy, and people’s mental and physical health will suffer anyway. I’m so amused/dismayed by this apparent conceit that if we reopen things will just go back to normal except we’ll have a few fewer Boomers. Jesus Christ.

 

[BarbaricManchurian]

We’ll see how the respective economies are doing in a few months. We will need another stimulus check to prevent massive discontent among the working class if the shutdown drags out for much longer. And unfortunately that’s a federal problem, and they’re kinda forcing the hand of reopening by not approving a 2nd stimulus, but reopening when we’ve already flattened the curve somewhat is much better than economic catastrophe and a sharp increase in deaths by despair.

 

[BarbaricManchurian]

We have some major strawmanning here huh. Honestly sad to see. Debate the actual points made.

Hospitals were never “overwhelmed.” People have been missing elective surgery and dental cleanings for a while and there’s been a massive amount of healthcare layoffs.

 

[jklo]

If you want to spew nonsense like “only Boomers will die lol”, keep that thought to yourself. First of all, it’s incorrect.

Can't see how you can think that when that's exactly what MA's data is showing.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

We’ll see how the respective economies are doing in a few months. We will need another stimulus check to prevent massive discontent among the working class if the shutdown drags out for much longer. And unfortunately that’s a federal problem, and they’re kinda forcing the hand of reopening by not approving a 2nd stimulus, but reopening when we’ve already flattened the curve somewhat is much better than economic catastrophe and a sharp increase in deaths by despair.

Great. I promise I'll post the selfies my sis-in-law shares of herself bulging out of her PPE in the midsummer Georgia heat because {*LOL*}> ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ shop till you (literally) drop it's somebody else's problem. With luck we might even have enough herd immunity after nth re-surges of FREEDUMB that I might even be able to see my new niece in person and try out my first-timer uncleing skillz before she's old enough to talk back at me.

Jesus Christ. We don't have to overcompensate so hard here just because Rifleman's no longer around to do all that heavy thread-lifting himself, you know.

 

[BarbaricManchurian]

Hmm ad hominem. Try again. Have they ever been over capacity in Georgia at any time up to this point?

 

[George_Apley]

We’ll see how the respective economies are doing in a few months. We will need another stimulus check to prevent massive discontent among the working class if the shutdown drags out for much longer. And unfortunately that’s a federal problem, and they’re kinda forcing the hand of reopening by not approving a 2nd stimulus, but reopening when we’ve already flattened the curve somewhat is much better than economic catastrophe and a sharp increase in deaths by despair.

Yes. The federal government forced the states' hands with regard to reopening.

I'm not sure who's arguing for "forever shutdown". It must be some straw man lurking around somewhere. It's about smart reopening over time deliberately with precautions versus "okay, hooray the virus is over!" that I see too many people reacting with on social media. If we reopen too suddenly, and people don't take it seriously that curve ain't staying flat.

Let's be deliberate about what we're actually arguing about. Try not to argue with whatever bogeyman ideological opponent you'd rather be arguing against, and argue with what people are actually saying.

Can't see how you can think that when that's exactly what MA's data is showing.

Massachusetts closed fairly quickly and aggressively, especially places where transmission would occur relatively easily (schools, gyms, restaurants). If a second wave overwhelms the hospitals then it's not just gonna be the olds who suffer. Plus "meh, they're old anyway let's just reopen and let the cards fall where they may" ignores all of the other negative side-effects of COVID that people are starting to realize and that I've addressed elsewhere. I get that the shutdown has long-term negative effects. They're negative effects that can be mitigated, but the government isn't mitigating them by choice. So states are reopening, including this one. So... why are we still saying "we need to reopen"? ... We are reopening.

My point with that post was for people to fucking shut up with the Darwinian bullshit in this thread and on this board. If you want to take this specific conversation further DM me. Otherwise, drop it.

 

[BarbaricManchurian]

I support a smart reopening. Reopen everything and high-risk groups can decide to isolate with state subsidies. Many older people agree like charlie_mta so don’t feel the need to be a spokesman for them. Wonder what westy thinks too lolol (F-Line’s head will probably explode in a nuclear blast if he returns). We don’t really have another choice without another federal stimulus unfortunately. Things are getting desperate for the working class and not getting people back to work will lead to major bad vibes everywhere. Unemployment, development projects stopped, increased crime, closed stores, higher crime, hunger, desperation, suicides, deaths of despair, etc. And that will suck much much more than a virus with a sub 1% mortality where we’ve already flattened the curve somewhat.

 

[stellarfun]

I'm am sorry, I was referring to Pre-Covid. Yes, they will both be hurting post covid, but not nearly as badly as a state like CA that was almost backrupt pre-covid. Check out their public pension crisis. Ouch. However, their sales tax revenues will far surpass the states that have these oppressive lock downs.

The present governor took office in January 2019, and the state had a budget surplus of $21+ billion.

About that giant, surplus-plus budget surplus

Gov. Gavin Newsom has arrived in office with a plus-sized surplus. What do you think of his plan for it?

calmatters.org

As for lockdowns, California was first; and seven Bay area counties went to lockdown before the state did.

Bay Area counties announce lockdown through April 7

Six Bay Area counties — San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda — announced a “shelter in place” order. The lockdown, unveiled at a press conference earlier, starts at 12:01 AM Tuesday. It’s not a full lockdown, but it’s quite sweeping and strict nonetheless, as...

techcrunch.com

The seven counties on March 16. What was Massachusetts and New York doing on March 16. Business as usual?

As for public pensions, there is a massive unfunded liability in CA.

Everyone is saying they just won a big court case on pensions. What does that mean for you?

If all sides are declaring victory in the California Supreme Court’s pension ruling on Monday, it’s because the decision had a little something for all the combatants in the state’s pension wars. In a much-anticipated decision, the high court upheld a major rollback initiated during Gov. Jerry...

calmatters.org

But CA is better off than MA

How Well-Funded Are Pension Plans in Your State?

Research shows the strain on state retirement systems nationwide as state pension funds strive to keep pace with benefits owed to public employees.

taxfoundation.org

Of 50 states, as to percentage of pension liability that is funded, ranked from highest to lowest.
CA is #27
MA #41
RI #45
CT #47
IL #48
NJ #49
KY #50

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

What is this flat curve you speak of? Doesn't plotting a curve require onesself to release the data points in such a way that can be plotted against time...and not releasing nonsensical backwards-facing dumps or firing the people responsible for preparing said plots in order to show with fact-checkable rigor that the curve has flattened?

And moreover, if the curve were "more or less" flat shouldn't all of these age groups be trending in the same general direction???

Gee, those Boomers we thought we'd be spring-cleaning out of the attic are doing pretty darn alright now. Gen X...not so much, but those slackers should be used to living in stagnation right now [insert dated flannel joke against sample from "Singles" sountrack, amirite?].

Oh, and it really sucks to be a kid. I mean...we all knew that accurately when we were kids, but in case it was forgotten...yeesh. Really, really sucks to be a kid now.


Nope. ^That^ is not in the slightest what a "more or less flattened" curve looks like. The backside should not be trending into a formless meander like that. But we'll know with another 1-2 weeks of data collection whose resurgent hotspots are dragging it back to treading-water. Data point accumulation marches on despite some folks' best attempts to suppress it.

 

[BarbaricManchurian]

I’m pretty sure they reserve the right to shut down again if the curve spikes?

 

[HenryAlan]

Henry - have you looked at CA and NY over the last 10 years? You aren't really comparing the economies of these states to FL are you? If so, we have fundamental disagreements.

Did you do any research? Yes every state will have budget issues (MA included)! But CA is FAR worse than other states. If interested, check out the "Nexus" grab states are starting now to grab revenues from other states. Fascinating.

Have you looked at migration trends from CA to NV and ID? This isn't breaking news, it is well known their tax situation is out of control and they continue to impose new taxes and can never catch up to their out of control spending.

I'm pretty much done with this back and forth, but I am going to suggest you do a lot more research. And I mean primary research. Don't just look for articles that show your confirmation bias. Dig deep in to things like GDP per capita growth rate, state government debt per capita, state rainy day funds as percentage of GDP. By all of these measures, Florida is a basket case. Even if you drop per capita, most years CA has higher GDP growth than Florida, and especially has higher personal income growth. The actual data don't back your assertions unless you are very selective about how you measure it. But like I said, I'm pretty much done talking to you. I made the mistake of trying for a meaningful conversation when you are only interested in politicizing a virus.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

I’m pretty sure they reserve the right to shut down again if the curve spikes?

All rights are "reserved" by technicality, or else they wouldn't have been exercised the first time around. That's self-evident, not an open question. But the flare-up is already happening on many sets of data points, so if pumping the brakes on further acceleration of the reopen is not already in the cards in places like GA & FL, then waiting for 10 more days of data infill such that the published "curve" chart conclusively starts reflecting a bona fide re-spike on pretty graphs isn't going to tell them anything they don't already know. Hello!...what is a "preventative" measure good for if it isn't measured preventatively??? The name of the game isn't to sit around on one's hands and wait for enough time to go by that the plots start showing a nicely-drawn curve...sailing in the totally wrong direction...and then go "Well, our bad." That's not how this game is played. You see some red-hot leading indicators...you act on that, not the endproduct.

Obtusely failing to do so means one has no fucking interest whatsoever in any preventative measures, and are only watching to see if the collateral damage comes home to roost in the form of political damage. FL is arguably still aways away from hitting that "eating their own" point on political damage, but Georgia sure as F has. Nobody...not even Kemp's own party...knows what the hell is going on in his brain right now while he's sitting dead-last by a mile amongst 51 (if counting PR) Governors in approval and is drowning in own-party mayday polls showing both the state's Senate seats changing party hands (with one Senate incumbent getting turfed in every single jungle-primary matchup), tough reelection fights in multiple shoulda-been safe House races, and catastrophic projected ruling-party losses in the Legislature. If that hasn't motivated anyone yet to "reserve" their rights, I guess we're going to find out in all its glory what an uncontrolled landing looks like in curve form.

Sucks for my sis-in-law who's seeing the odds go rotten in real-time that her number gets called before she passes 6 months and gets the "not even in the apocalypse" maternity waiver, but she's tougher than I woulda been if staring down a similar risk profile. And...well...tougher in general because she'd surely end up the last one standing upright in an argument of unsolicited advice over who 'should' be making sacrifices for the betterment of the restart. Oh boy...at your peril, Georgian freedumb fighters if you feel like getting all soapboxy while she's preparing to stick the test probe up your nose.

 

[falcon42]

I'm pretty much done with this back and forth, but I am going to suggest you do a lot more research. And I mean primary research. Don't just look for articles that show your confirmation bias. Dig deep in to things like GDP per capita growth rate, state government debt per capita, state rainy day funds as percentage of GDP. By all of these measures, Florida is a basket case. Even if you drop per capita, most years CA has higher GDP growth than Florida, and especially has higher personal income growth. The actual data don't back your assertions unless you are very selective about how you measure it. But like I said, I'm pretty much done talking to you. I made the mistake of trying for a meaningful conversation when you are only interested in politicizing a virus.

Your anger glows. This started with you criticizing the Federal response and you bringing politics into it. End of the day, you seem to be a big gov't person vs some of us are are about rights and freedom. That is fine, different viewpoints are OK! But thanks for letting me know you are "done talking to me" on forum.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Your anger glows. This started with you criticizing the Federal response and you bringing politics into it. End of the day, you seem to be a big gov't person vs some of us are are about rights and freedom. That is fine, different viewpoints are OK! But thanks for letting me know you are "done talking to me" on forum.

Not bad. Could use more all-caps and maybe a spurious Aquarium Garage reference dropped in for good measure to truly capture that unmoored Riff' feeling.

 

[HenryAlan]

Not bad. Could use more all-caps and maybe a spurious Aquarium Garage reference dropped in for good measure to truly capture that unmoored Riff' feeling.

And to top it off, that whole bit about me having criticized the federal government proves he has me confused with somebody else! I never went there (though it would certainly be easy enough).

 

[jklo]

If a second wave overwhelms the hospitals then it's not just gonna be the olds who suffer.

MA hospitals are (I believe) even starting to take down some of the temp hospital surge capacity that was built. They certainly aren't expecting another surge even with reopening.

 

[JumboBuc]

MA hospitals are (I believe) even starting to take down some of the temp hospital surge capacity that was built. They certainly aren't expecting another surge even with reopening.

All major hospitals transitioned resources (e.g., staff, equipment, physical space, etc.) to COVID surge capacity from other uses during the spike. Now with the spike subsiding, some of those resources are being transitioned back to their intended purposes. This is a good thing! But it says absolutely nothing about hospitals' expectations of the possibility of future surges. If cases surge again in a month or two or four, you can be sure hospitals will shift their resources right back to COVID uses.

If you're an oncologist whose patients stopped showing up for cancer treatment at the major teaching hospital where you work during the surge (whether at the hospital's or at the patient's discretion), there's a good chance you may have been staffed up on a COVID team (outside of your specialty) in April. Now that the initial biggest surge is behind us, hospitals are beginning to try to get those cancer treatments back on schedule and oncologists are chomping at the bit to get back to their work in their field. The same goes for a whole slew of other sub-specialties. Hospitals aren't just going to put other important services and treatments on hold indefinitely until COVID is gone for good. But that doesn't mean hospitals "aren't expecting another surge;" it just means that other priorities are important as well. If another surge does come, hospitals will just leverage what they learned this spring to transition everything back to COVID.

Now I'll try to go back to ignoring this dumpster fire of a thread.

 

[jklo]

All major hospitals transitioned resources (e.g., staff, equipment, physical space, etc.) to COVID surge capacity from other uses during the spike. Now with the spike subsiding, some of those resources are being transitioned back to their intended purposes. This is a good thing! But it says absolutely nothing about hospitals' expectations of the possibility of future surges. If cases surge again in a month or two or four, you can be sure hospitals will shift their resources right back to COVID uses.

I'm talking about the physical structures that were built and are now being taken down. If they thought it was necessary to keep it just in case, they would have, even if they weren't going to use it at the moment.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

I'm talking about the physical structures that were built and are now being taken down. If they thought it was necessary to keep it just in case, they would have, even if they weren't going to use it at the moment.

Umm...folding popup boxes unfold and store in a storage closet just as easy. I don't know what kind of big production you were expecting, but equivalent-level staging of this kind at BCEC is done multiple times a week in the exhibit hall for bog-standard events.

The first time around they had to deal with triaging many moving pieces that were subject to critical supply shortages, which added up-front time. If they get an order to stage it again they'll have these same popup booths ready for occupancy in hours, not days. Being put into storage on standby ≠ disappearing from this plane of existence.