I fully agree with everything @Teban54 wrote (except maybe the point about that particular extension into Revere -- I'm not convinced that the Eastern Route is the best alignment, but I agree with that overall point that, once freed from the obligation of circumferential service, the possibility of extension to the northeast becomes much more obvious).
Assembly <> Airport via Grand Junction is 4.4 miles. At 12 mph (which I think is potentially optimistic), that is 22 minutes. On today's Orange and Blue (with all of their problems), the same journey takes anywhere from 27 to as little as 23 minutes. The transfer at Assembly will probably be less friendly than at Sullivan, which makes the comparison even worse: 4.9 miles at 12 mph yields 24.6 min on Grand Junction from Sullivan, while Orange <> Blue ranges from 25 to 20 minutes.
(Add on top of that: Grand Junction frequencies are almost certainly going to be [slightly] lower than Orange and Blue, so that transfer will be more brittle.)
And on top of that, even if people don't count stops or measure route miles or calculate travel time, Google Maps and similar platforms do, which is going to increasingly drive behavior in the future. And I think Google will not look particularly favorably at a Grand Junction route; at best, like you said, it's a wash, so probably Google will send some riders one way and others the other.
Likewise, for all of the alts without direct service to Central Parking/the Terminals, any benefits of an OSR go out the window: your choices are either Orange -> Grand Jct -> Massport shuttle, or Orange -> Blue -> Massport shuttle.
So, we're really only talking about one alternative that accrues enough benefits to plausibly divert riders away from downtown, and it's the one that is by far the most expensive.
I still think cross-Creek service is valuable! I just don't think it should be predicated on the idea of reducing Orange <> Blue transfers at State.
This is one of the trickiest questions to answer, and may well be impossible to answer with satisfactory confidence. I agree with @Teban54's points, but will add a couple more.I don't think people think this way when taking the train, and basically everyone would absolutely take the UR from Sullivan to the Airport. People don't think about how many miles the train is going. Nor is it even easy to tell, especially because the system diagram map would likely show the UR route as a roughly straight line from Sullivan to the Airport. And even practically, going an extra mile on a train isn't a big deal. You just sit there a few minutes. Compared to the variable amount of time a transfer adds on, it's basically a wash. Plus the OSR option means no hauling luggage up and down stairs, or trying to get a new seat on the second train. If the UR has nice new, comfortable, reliable trains and stations, then I would expect people would go from Sullivan, Kendall, and Cambridgeport to the airport on the UR rather than whatever transfers. It would be more comfortable and convenient.
I think everyone would do it once. And then never again.basically everyone would absolutely take the UR from Sullivan to the Airport
Assembly <> Airport via Grand Junction is 4.4 miles. At 12 mph (which I think is potentially optimistic), that is 22 minutes. On today's Orange and Blue (with all of their problems), the same journey takes anywhere from 27 to as little as 23 minutes. The transfer at Assembly will probably be less friendly than at Sullivan, which makes the comparison even worse: 4.9 miles at 12 mph yields 24.6 min on Grand Junction from Sullivan, while Orange <> Blue ranges from 25 to 20 minutes.
(Add on top of that: Grand Junction frequencies are almost certainly going to be [slightly] lower than Orange and Blue, so that transfer will be more brittle.)
And on top of that, even if people don't count stops or measure route miles or calculate travel time, Google Maps and similar platforms do, which is going to increasingly drive behavior in the future. And I think Google will not look particularly favorably at a Grand Junction route; at best, like you said, it's a wash, so probably Google will send some riders one way and others the other.
Well, so, there are really four different proposals we're talking about here:Plus the OSR option means...
- WITH dedicated Chelsea Creek crossing and WITH direct service to Central Parking/the Terminals
- WITH dedicated Chelsea Creek crossing and WITHOUT direct service to Central Parking/the Terminals (end at Airport station)
- WITHOUT dedicated Chelsea Creek crossing and WITH direct service to Central Parking/etc
- WITHOUT dedicated Chelsea Creek crossing and WITHOUT direct service to Central Parking/etc
Likewise, for all of the alts without direct service to Central Parking/the Terminals, any benefits of an OSR go out the window: your choices are either Orange -> Grand Jct -> Massport shuttle, or Orange -> Blue -> Massport shuttle.
So, we're really only talking about one alternative that accrues enough benefits to plausibly divert riders away from downtown, and it's the one that is by far the most expensive.
I still think cross-Creek service is valuable! I just don't think it should be predicated on the idea of reducing Orange <> Blue transfers at State.