General MBTA Topics (Multi Modal, Budget, MassDOT)

[Delvin4519]

One question that has bothered me lately, now that we're seeing systemwide global slow zone and whatnot, is how much of the MBTA's death spiral can be attributed directly or indirectly to the COVID-19 pandemic? As opposed/versus underfunding/debt/mismanagement/corruption. Obviously the latter played a large role in the MBTA being in a state of death sprial present day, but what factors in particular, were responsible by the pandemic restrictions and whatnot?

Here's a list of MBTA's issues today that were in part, mostly likely directly attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, as opposed to underfunding/debt/mismanagement/corruption:

1. GLX delayed to December 2022, 1 year delay (supply chain and COVID restrictions)
2. Budget shortfalls and budget deficits (caused by work from home, due to COVID-19, cutting fare revenues by over half)
3. Bus operator shortages (I don't believe there was bus operator shortage on December 31st, 2019, and that the MBTA was indeed running full bus service on Dec. 31 2019; today's increases in cost of living caused by COVID suplly chain issues)
4. Outdated fare collection and delayed over budget fare modernization (Delays are attributed to COVID-19)
5. Delays in new Red Line and Orange Line vehicles (caused by COVID-19, may be responsible for the Red Line death last year, which triggered FTA response, which triggered MBTA subway service cuts.)
6. No increase in gas tax in Massachusetts (This was in the MA legislature in March 2020, before COVID suspended any plans to raise the gas tax to fund MBTA modernization and safety improvements)

Put it this way, what if the COVID-19 pandemic didn't happen? Where would the MBTA be today were it not for the pandemic to occur?

First, ridership would continue pre-COVID trends. Traffic would also continue to worsen from pre-pandemic trends. This would mean the gas tax and ridershare fees would have been raised by the proposed 5 cents. This would have brought hundreds of millions in funding for the MBTA in a hypothectical no-COVID-pandemic world of mid/late-2020, 3 years sooner and earlier than today. With full ridership, the budget forecasts would be much more optimistic than we see today. The GLX project would be ongoing and completed by December 2021. The Red and Orange Line procurment would continue, without any COVID-19 lockdowns or supply chain issues. If there were delays, then there would not be a pandemic to make them orders of magnitudes worse like we see today. By April 2022 in a non-COVID world, it would be likely there would be much more new Red Line cars on the tracks, with older Red Line cars beginning to be scrapped. Therefore, the incident that happened in April 2022 might not have occurred. Hence, it would likely not trigger an FTA response, which would mean that the MBTA would continue to run full subway service. With more new Orange Line cars, the MBTA might have needed to increase Orange Line service beyond December 2019 levels, after 3 years. Without the COVID pandemic, there would not be signficant inflation issues or work from home's dominance, which would then MBTA would continue to run full bus service, at the same budgets and pay rates of pre-COVID. The MBTA's bus network redesign would therefore be much further along the process than we are today.

What are your thoughts? Is the COVID-19 pandemic therefore responsible putting the MBTA in a state of a transit death sprial? That the MBTA was bad and mismanaged pre-COVID, and the pandemic was enough to push the MBTA over the threshold of rapid decay and disintegration?

 

[Brattle Loop]

What are your thoughts? Is the COVID-19 pandemic therefore responsible putting the MBTA in a state of a transit death sprial? That the MBTA was bad and mismanaged pre-COVID, and the pandemic was enough to push the MBTA over the threshold of rapid decay and disintegration?

I can't entirely say I agree. It's more like Covid blew off the vinyl siding, revealing that the wall underneath had been devoured by termites. Even if Covid hadn't derailed the gas tax hike, there's no guarantee that the money would have a.) gone mainly to the MBTA or b.) been spent effectively. They very clearly demonstrated for many, many years before 2020 that they weren't particularly good at efficient spending.

More to the point, bus service aside, the decay of the rapid transit system was not, particularly, Covid-related. Obviously we don't know all the details, but it certainly seems at this point that CRRC's difficulties are hardly all attributable to the pandemic (and both pre-and-post-2020 there have been issues of varying significance with the CRRC cars), so I don't know that that would have changed much except the timeline. The rotting-away of the older Red and Orange Line cars is not pandemic related, it is the inevitable result of the agency's previous decision to neither rehab their two oldest fleets (would have been the #1 Red Line cars' second rehab) nor replace them. Even if all the CRRC cars had been delivered (without Boeing/Breda-style teething problems) on the as-ordered-schedule, the #12 cars would have been pushing 40 and the #1 cars pushing 30-35 since rehab, both well past the point (double, in the OL's case) when you'd normally expect a refurbishment/rebuilt. They put themselves in a position where any significant delays - quite possibly just the CRRC-incompetence delays - put them at risk of severe service disruption on the vehicle end. (And, recall, that even the comparatively-smoother EIS of the Siemens #5 cars was significantly delayed by the bankruptcy of a component manufacturer.) Without knowing more on how much of the CRRC problems are pandemic-independent, I don't think we can say it was the pandemic that was specifically responsible. (To be honest, I think the T got lucky the #12 cars held out as long as they did.) And, let us remember, that the current subpar service levels on the Orange Line are not specifically vehicle-related, they're dispatcher related.

Hence, it would likely not trigger an FTA response, which would mean that the MBTA would continue to run full subway service.

This is where I think the pandemic-caused-the-death-spiral argument is at its weakest. The T was operating in a dangerously unsafe manner, without any significantly-meaningful safety oversight. Something was always going to bite them. Yeah, if the CRRC cars were on time, maybe it's not this specific incident, but it'd be something else (more Green Line trolleys hitting each other?). The agency was rotting from the inside for decades. Did the pandemic accelerate the disintegration? Maybe. Certainly in some areas. But I think it more revealed it, stopped things up enough to stop them being able to constantly paper over the cracks.

 

[Delvin4519]

I can't entirely say I agree. It's more like Covid blew off the vinyl siding, revealing that the wall underneath had been devoured by termites. Even if Covid hadn't derailed the gas tax hike, there's no guarantee that the money would have a.) gone mainly to the MBTA or b.) been spent effectively. They very clearly demonstrated for many, many years before 2020 that they weren't particularly good at efficient spending.

This is where I think the pandemic-caused-the-death-spiral argument is at its weakest. The T was operating in a dangerously unsafe manner, without any significantly-meaningful safety oversight. Something was always going to bite them. Yeah, if the CRRC cars were on time, maybe it's not this specific incident, but it'd be something else (more Green Line trolleys hitting each other?). The agency was rotting from the inside for decades. Did the pandemic accelerate the disintegration? Maybe. Certainly in some areas. But I think it more revealed it, stopped things up enough to stop them being able to constantly paper over the cracks.

Yea, interesting food for thought. I don’t think that the pandemic is solely responsible for the death sprial, but did combine to an extent. I do recall a report in 2019 that the MBTA was being horrendously mismanaged and underfunded. Even in 2011 or so, the MBTA was told by a consultant to replace the aging Orange and Red Line cars immediately, but kept kicking the can down the road.

 

[JeffDowntown]

Yea, interesting food for thought. I don’t think that the pandemic is solely responsible for the death sprial, but did combine to an extent. I do recall a report in 2019 that the MBTA was being horrendously mismanaged and underfunded. Even in 2011 or so, the MBTA was told by a consultant to replace the aging Orange and Red Line cars immediately, but kept kicking the can down the road.

As with most complex systems, you can band aide the "keep it running" patch-work of repairs and capital rebuilds for only so long. The build up of deferred maintenance and deferred capital rebuilds was decades in the making. But at some point you get systemic failure. That is where we are at the T. And it is going to take a massive investment and a long time to reverse the massive decay and decline.

 

[Delvin4519]

The build up of deferred maintenance and deferred capital rebuilds was decades in the making. But at some point you get systemic failure. That is where we are at the T. And it is going to take a massive investment and a long time to reverse the massive decay and decline.

This has got me thinking. The "decades of buildup" probably dates back all the way to the beginnings of the automotive age and the start of suburbanization, about 75 - 100 years ago, or 4 generations, this includes the start of the auto and oil industry lobbying to make privately owned motorcars mainstream in the 1920s-1950s, and the removal of streetcars and transit systems within. 3-4 generations' worth of investment was diverted away from transit since the 1920s and 1930s to go towards highway expansion and suburbanization, especially in the 1950s-1970s era.

And it is going to take a massive investment and a long time to reverse the massive decay and decline.

This means to try to dig out the hole the MBTA is in, there is well over at least 3 generations of disinvestment in public transit, to catch up on. In addition, noting the Big Dig debt, there is a large amount of low density suburbanization and motorcar dependent sprawling infrastructure throughout Massachusetts compared to Europe. Being spread out thin with everyone required to own a private motorized vehicle, there's not a lot of revenue to cover maintainance liabilites of all that sprawling automotive oriented infrastructure statewide.

Because of this, only about 1.6-1.7 million of MA's 7.03 million residents live in areas historically served by BERy streetcars, and 2.5-2.6 million living in the MBTA's bus service district. This means the percentage of the state covered by rapid MBTA transit service is less than 1/3rds of the state. Yet, it is the state that will need to invest in the MBTA, not to mention all the highway maintance and low density roads littered throughout. The same goes nationwide, with so little US cities with intercity rail service or rapid subway service.

With this, it is tricky to gain full support to increase investment in transit. While there will always be city dwellers who have no choice but to hop on an hourly bus or an aging red line train, over half of MA doesn't live anywhere near an RTA or an MBTA bus or subway route. Much of the US lacks any form of public transit or intercity rail service. Meaning, there will always be a large porportion of leaders who have little to no interest in actually improving the MBTA. Therefore, new urban developments, say in like Woburn or Burlington, will continue be built with lots of parking and spread out thin, locking in more motorized auto dependency, and emissions and traffic for MBTA buses to contend with.

With this, I do agree that it will need massive investments and take a long time (on the order of generations or remaining lifetimes), compared to elsewhere, for the MBTA to catch up on decades of work. I am not sure, however, that there would be meaningful investments or improvements, even if a goal is set for, say, 2050. I do wonder if the worst of the transit death-spiral is yet to come, in the near future years.

 

[king_vibe]

While I do share many of the complaints in this thread, and I do think some top brass at the MBTA should be quite literally [redacted] in public, I think some of the hysterics about the death of the system of are quite overblown.

 

[Teban54]

MBTA leaning toward ‘new normal’ of lower ridership

MBTA OFFICIALS are beginning to assume that ridership will not rise much above current levels, an assumption sharply criticized by the head of the Greater

commonwealthmagazine.org

 

[ant8904]

I think some of the hysterics about the death of the system of are quite overblown

I don't know what to say if we are actually witnessing a death of the an entire system, but I think we can say without contest that it keeps going in that direction. You kinda have to start to wondering how much more dysfunction can it go before it's just not functional anymore. One would assume the bleeding would have to stop at some point, but has just kept going and going, who can truly say with true certainty it only going to stop except when there's just no blood left to bleed.

Also on a more personal note, a bunch of my friends gathered in Malden today. Everyone who used transit had an extremely terrible time. In the past, it was kinda a dice roll but it's rare enough to mostly be a bad luck story. This time it's just everyone who used transit - the combined weekend shutdown and slow zones means the trip was painful. After the end of the event, I drove a whole group back straight to South Station so they at least only have to deal with only a slow zoned Red Line. That's an alarming marker.

 

[Delvin4519]

I don't know what to say if we are actually witnessing a death of the an entire system, but I think we can say without contest that it keeps going in that direction. You kinda have to start to wondering how much more dysfunction can it go before it's just not functional anymore. One would assume the bleeding would have to stop at some point, but has just kept going and going, who can truly say with true certainty it only going to stop except when there's just no blood left to bleed.

Also on a more personal note, a bunch of my friends gathered in Malden today. Everyone who used transit had an extremely terrible time. In the past, it was kinda a dice roll but it's rare enough to mostly be a bad luck story. This time it's just everyone who used transit - the combined weekend shutdown and slow zones means the trip was painful. After the end of the event, I drove a whole group back straight to South Station so they at least only have to deal with only a slow zoned Red Line. That's an alarming marker.

Yea. There's also having to mention, that alongside the MBTA having less buses than in 1972, that, since COVID, the MBTA has been providing record lows in level of service per capita, in generations, in at least 50 years. We are seeing record breaking disappointing levels of service per capita in the Boston area, that have not been seen, ever since prior to 1972. This is already on top of the already relatively low level of service per capita that existed prior to COVID, in that, the number of buses and therefore, service, was static or slightly falling between 1972 and 2019, despite the population increasing.

With MBTA running revenue projections, and them going with an assumption that ridership will not reach pre-COVID levels, suggest, that, there isn't any urgency in trying to attract ridership back to the T. No concrete plans to restore level of service per capita to at least pre-COVID levels. No concrete plans to improve MBTA worker conditions and compensation. This suggests that level of service per capita will not recover to pre-COVID levels, let alone 1972 levels per capita, for an extraordinary long time.

You have to wonder, like, how much worse could it possibly get.

 

[aycaramba]

Yea. There's also having to mention, that alongside the MBTA having less buses than in 1972, that, since COVID, the MBTA has been providing record lows in level of service per capita, in generations, in at least 50 years. We are seeing record breaking disappointing levels of service per capita in the Boston area, that have not been seen, ever since prior to 1972. This is already on top of the already relatively low level of service per capita that existed prior to COVID, in that, the number of buses and therefore, service, was static or slightly falling between 1972 and 2019, despite the population increasing.

With MBTA running revenue projections, and them going with an assumption that ridership will not reach pre-COVID levels, suggest, that, there isn't any urgency in trying to attract ridership back to the T. No concrete plans to restore level of service per capita to at least pre-COVID levels. No concrete plans to improve MBTA worker conditions and compensation. This suggests that level of service per capita will not recover to pre-COVID levels, let alone 1972 levels per capita, for an extraordinary long time.

You have to wonder, like, how much worse could it possibly get.

Right. They deliver infrequent, inconsistent, downright dangerous service, ridership suffers, they use poor ridership numbers to justify further service cuts and then shrug and blame covid like all of this is out of their hands. No sign of anything getting better, just continuously worse news.
Healey a.k.a Charlie Baker 2.0 calls it "unacceptable" and then accepts it and writes some twitter posts about a new Director of Rural Affairs. The MBTA Board is absolutely useless. It's been 2 months and we don't even have a general manager.
If this isn't a death spiral, I don't know what is. You could argue that the MBTA has been on a long death spiral for decades and it's now in its end stages.
I have tried to be optimistic but the number of hopeful developments to grab onto have almost completely evaporated

 

[Kinopio]

I don't know what to say if we are actually witnessing a death of the an entire system, but I think we can say without contest that it keeps going in that direction. You kinda have to start to wondering how much more dysfunction can it go before it's just not functional anymore. One would assume the bleeding would have to stop at some point, but has just kept going and going, who can truly say with true certainty it only going to stop except when there's just no blood left to bleed.

Also on a more personal note, a bunch of my friends gathered in Malden today. Everyone who used transit had an extremely terrible time. In the past, it was kinda a dice roll but it's rare enough to mostly be a bad luck story. This time it's just everyone who used transit - the combined weekend shutdown and slow zones means the trip was painful. After the end of the event, I drove a whole group back straight to South Station so they at least only have to deal with only a slow zoned Red Line. That's an alarming marker.

The partial shutdown isn’t the Ts fault, it’s because of the stupid parking garage.

 

[Riverside]

It's been 2 months and we don't even have a general manager.

Jim Aloisi argues that finding a long-term GM should not be the top priority right now, and I agree with him. There are many very bad indicators at the T right now but the GM search is not one of them. (And arguably would be a distraction in some ways.)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634323715243794432

The partial shutdown isn’t the Ts fault, it’s because of the stupid parking garage.

If memory serves, there was concern raised during the first garage-related shutdown that the T should have previously noticed concerning conditions that would make a demolition problematic. I don’t know where that concern ended up or how things panned out there. That being said, the new concern last week about “quality of documentation” of inspections leads me to bring up the topic again and ask whether the T should have noticed something sooner; if so, then the T shouldn’t be allowed to pin this wholesale on the private contractor.

 

[Jahvon09]

Speeds are (supposedly) back to normal on Red, Orange & Blue lines. I'm from Missouri!! Hah!!

Documentation breakdown blamed in T subway slowdown

MBTA INTERIM General Manager Jeffrey Gonneville said a failure to properly document whether or not track defects identified last month had been addressed

commonwealthmagazine.org

 

[Delvin4519]

Apparently, workers have to manually go to and visit every single block of Green Line trackage across the entire system; and install new speed limit signage on the Green Line and Mattapan Line and signalling system.

Paywalled article: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/03...r-travel-times-during-monday-morning-commute/

 

[Delvin4519]

Jim Aloisi argues that finding a long-term GM should not be the top priority right now, and I agree with him. There are many very bad indicators at the T right now but the GM search is not one of them. (And arguably would be a distraction in some ways.)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634323715243794432

I'm not too sure, but I did find this from a 2019 article: https://www.wcvb.com/article/attorn...-fired-after-raising-critical-issues/28327243

 

[Highwayguy]

How is 60 mins of slow zone even possible?!? Wouldn’t that mean trains would take like an hour and a half Alewife to Braintree? That can’t possibly be righ…

OH MY

 

[ant8904]

The partial shutdown isn’t the Ts fault, it’s because of the stupid parking garage.

A true point, but it doesn't change how much it sucked. It's one thing to have to deal with some slow zones or buses on part of the trip, my friends and I have all became pretty adept at adjusting to that. But as one of my friends said "Figuring out the T today harder than any puzzle boda Borg might have" and it was in a lot of ways, this one hopping on a slow moving train, to get on to a shuttle (or attempt to bypass as some did), then slowly move on another train. The trip just sucked. I honestly haven't seen such an experience so many of us at once having a bad time (or course it pretty easy when every line was affected).

So it in short, it sucked and I can see this having consequences in the future.

 

[Delvin4519]

How is 60 mins of slow zone even possible?!? Wouldn’t that mean trains would take like an hour and a half Alewife to Braintree? That can’t possibly be righ…

OH MY

The same graph, but deliberately set to October 9th, 2020, or June 8th, 2022.

Something tells me to use some form of exponential function for the first graph. A linear relationship would've worked for the second graph, but not anymore.

Can someone develop a trendline for the topmost graph, and then extrapolate this trendline into the future?

I'm sure a mathmatical model can predict future slow zones on the red line. Here's my rough sketch

EDIT: UPDATE:

 

[Java King]

Slow Zones, GLX Late with bare-bones stations, person killed on the Red Line with a faulty door, falling ceiling panels at Harvard, automobiles off the edge at Alewife, stairways crumbling, fire on the Mystic River bridge, system-wide line shutdowns, billion-dollar new fare system nowhere to be found, faulty CRRC new subway train car contract..............the list is never ending. I could go on and on.

So, I bring you unbelievably happy news. (Coffee and trains are the BEST combination.) This is the coolest Caffe Nero inside the Wellesley Hills Train Station. (HH Richardson is the same architect as Trinity Church in Copley Square.) The building is wonderful and needs a little love, and I hope the MBTA respects the beautiful building when they improve the station.
Worcester Triple Track Design Professional Services Contract (mbta.com)

I was window treatment shopping in Natick on Saturday, and I just had to stop! EVERY MBTA Station should have a beautiful coffee shop like this.

 

[Aprehensive_Words]

This makes me think of a BBC series from about a decade ago where James May (of "Top Gear") and fellow presenter Oz Clarke spend part of it hopping from station to station on some bit of the National Rail network in Yorkshire where each historic station building has a pub. Sounds like an ideal vacation, if you ask me.