Logan Airport Flights and Airlines Discussion

[BuilditDenser]

Unserved not underserved. Underserved routes already have a non stop option. Unserved routes don't. It's apples and oranges.

LAS, MCO, and TPA all have lots of leisure traffic that won't mind a stopover if they pay a little bit less.


SAN could be an interesting route for Southwest to hop on. They do have a large focus city in SAN. However they would be competing with both AS and B6 so who knows if the market is large enough for 3 carriers. Plus Boston-California routes are very long, they are the ones where a stopover makes the most sense.

Totally right, I read it too fast. I thiink WN is by far the most likely chocie and will probably add it when they get their additional gates. Jetblue may also add it. Personally, I am doubtful that AS will add it but that is based on speculation only

 

[mass88]

I would think that Southwest would add SAT before OAK. No competition on a potential SAT (San Antonio) route. In fact I believe that it is the largest unserved domestic market from Logan. It could support two fights a day.

Unserved not underserved. Underserved routes already have a non stop option. Unserved routes don't. It's apples and oranges.

LAS, MCO, and TPA all have lots of leisure traffic that won't mind a stopover if they pay a little bit less.


SAN could be an interesting route for Southwest to hop on. They do have a large focus city in SAN. However they would be competing with both AS and B6 so who knows if the market is large enough for 3 carriers. Plus Boston-California routes are very long, they are the ones where a stopover makes the most sense.

We're not going to see Southwest jump on any transcons from Boston. Outside of Baltimore (where they have a large hub) Southwest has cut back on a lot of East coast - California flying. It will be interested to see how they do on EWR-OAK and EWR-SAN.

 

[tysmith95]

We're not going to see Southwest jump on any transcons from Boston. Outside of Baltimore (where they have a large hub) Southwest has cut back on a lot of East coast - California flying. It will be interested to see how they do on EWR-OAK and EWR-SAN.

I agree with you with regards to Cali routes, however SAT could still be a good possibility. WN already flies to Houston and Dallas from Boston, why not add a third city in that state.

 

[adamh8297]

Unserved domestic flights I'd like to see at Logan (in order):

San Antonio
Omaha
Albuquerque
Oklahoma City

Of those, the only one that probably stands a chance is SAT.

Add Louisville and the largest unserved domestic market: Hampton Roads Metro Area of Virginia (Norfolk/Portsmouth/Virginia Beach).

Oklahoma City is a rather small market. Memphis and I think even Madison Wisconsin is bigger.

There's always Honolulu too domestically. We did some guestimates in this thread.

Announced gains for the next few couple of years:

B6: current: about 120, going to 200 (no date given). increase: 80
DL: current: about 75 (guess), going to 120 in 2018, increase: 45
WN: gaining 2 gates in 2018, increase: 20

Announced gains by 2018 (very optimistic): 145.

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Thinking about these three airlines and what they must serve domestically:

JetBlue: Minneapolis and Cincinnati

Delta: Chicago

Southwest: Fort Lauderdale since they need a good feeder for their international ops there.

There's not many musts but there's a lot of routes to add that wouldn't surprise me. For example any of the three carriers could start a Norfolk or Louisville flight.

 

[bigpicture7]

Add Louisville and the largest unserved domestic market: Hampton Roads Metro Area of Virginia (Norfolk/Portsmouth/Virginia Beach).

Oklahoma City is a rather small market. Memphis and I think even Madison Wisconsin is bigger.

There's always Honolulu too domestically. We did some guestimates in this thread.

Good call on Honolulu and Memphis.

I intentionally left off Madison and Louisville because both are within a 90-min drives of airports that we do currently have non-stops to (though I agree they're decent sized markets).

Norfolk I mistakenly left off - Logan used to have service to there (AirTran, I believe) and I forgot the service is no longer in place.

 

[Arlington]

Norfolk I mistakenly left off - Logan used to have service to there (AirTran, I believe) and I forgot the service is no longer in place.

Airtran had PHF (Patrick Henry / Newport News). I seem to recall AA and DL taking turns on direct RJ flights to ORF (on the more-populated side of things), Delta flew BOS-ORF ???->2008 and 2011-->???

And I remember arriving in ORF on AA, but maybe those were never nonstops (I also did AA/US connections via DCA and PHL)?

 

[BuilditDenser]

Since we entered speculation territory, here are my guesses

WN: CVG, FLL, SAT

DL: DCA (need it for business), ORD, Canada (dl has a history), HNL

B6: increase ORD, PDX (mint), generally increase service on business oriented routes, MCI (1x), STL (1x), Belize (1x), further roll out of mint, maybe HNL (1x mint), MSP


Other: Bogota, Barcelona, Milan, India (Delhi or mumbai )

 

[stefal]

I'm skeptical but wishful on DL from BOS to DCA.

 

[Texasian]

I agree with you with regards to Cali routes, however SAT could still be a good possibility. WN already flies to Houston and Dallas from Boston, why not add a third city in that state.

WN also flies BOS-AUS as does B6.

I would love for BOS-SAT to happen, but I'm not going to hold my breath. With Houston and Dallas a 1 hr hop away and Austin sucking any remaining air out of the room, SA is left with scraps... that at least connect it to basically every major hub... but still.

 

[mass88]

Since we entered speculation territory, here are my guesses

WN: CVG, FLL, SAT

DL: DCA (need it for business), ORD, Canada (dl has a history), HNL

B6: increase ORD, PDX (mint), generally increase service on business oriented routes, MCI (1x), STL (1x), Belize (1x), further roll out of mint, maybe HNL (1x mint), MSP


Other: Bogota, Barcelona, Milan, India (Delhi or mumbai )

WN just opened up CVG. I doubt we'll be seeing them enter that market from BOS anytime within the next 18 plus months.

I'm skeptical but wishful on DL from BOS to DCA.

I too am septical. Between American and JetBlue you're talking 20 flights a day Monday through Friday.

Add Louisville and the largest unserved domestic market: Hampton Roads Metro Area of Virginia (Norfolk/Portsmouth/Virginia Beach).

Oklahoma City is a rather small market. Memphis and I think even Madison Wisconsin is bigger.

There's always Honolulu too domestically. We did some guestimates in this thread.



Thinking about these three airlines and what they must serve domestically:

JetBlue: Minneapolis and Cincinnati

Delta: Chicago

Southwest: Fort Lauderdale since they need a good feeder for their international ops there.

There's not many musts but there's a lot of routes to add that wouldn't surprise me. For example any of the three carriers could start a Norfolk or Louisville flight.

I could see Southwest needing some feed for their flights to Cuba, but their international network is not that large from Ft. Lauderdale. Baltimore is much larger for them.


My guesses:

JetBlue will serve Minneapolis/St. Paul and St. Louis by the end of 2018.

One new Asian carrier will enter Boston by the end of 2018.

Apart from that things should remain level domestically over the next 2 years.

Apart from a non-stop to South America, Logan is very well served and has to be reaching the point of saturation. I would rather see the level of service be maintained over the next 3-4 years than new carriers come in and hurt the overall market and cause carriers to leave.

 

[BuilditDenser]

WN just opened up CVG. I doubt we'll be seeing them enter that market from BOS anytime within the next 18 plus months.

CVG has been pushing for a lcc to fly to bos. I bet we will see it within the next 2 year, maybe sooner.

I too am septical. Between American and JetBlue you're talking 20 flights a day Monday through Friday.

If DL wants to win over boston business travelers, they need a dc option. If not dca, it will be dulles or bwi.

Apart from that things should remain level domestically over the next 2 years.

Delta has a massive expansion planned for this summer. For example, they are going up to 12 daily flights to atl, all on a321s. B6 alone is adding 750 seats every day (275,000 per year) to atl. 2017 is also going to be the first full year of b6 flying to lga 6x per weekday. This is in addition to tons of other announced capacity increases this year. Do you see any reductions in service anywhere? If not, then it is a fair guess to say we will reach a new peak.

Apart from a non-stop to South America, Logan is very well served and has to be reaching the point of saturation. I would rather see the level of service be maintained over the next 3-4 years than new carriers come in and hurt the overall market and cause carriers to leave.

I agree that logan is well covered, there are no options to do directly to south africa, south america, korea, or India. Those are huge untapped markets. Personally, I think Norwegian will add 2x or 3x weekly to Barcelona.

 

[mass88]

If another carrier enters BOS-CVG, my money is on JetBlue to be that carrier.

I was referring to new destinations served domestically out of Boston in terms of things remaining level. Capacity is another story.

Norwegian not announcing Boston as part of their initial Barcelona longhaul flying may be telling. It may happen eventually but it is surprising Boston is not part of their initial services.


Out of South Africa, India, South Korea and South America, I think South Korea and South America are the most likely. South Africa will never happen. Air India has Boston as one of their targets for North America, but the India market is well served one-stop on Emirates and Qatar. A direct link to India will steal a lot of passengers from both airlines.

 

[RandomWalk]

Somewhat selfishly, I'd like to see JetBlue serve IND-BOS. I don't like either Southwest or Delta as much as them.

 

[SouthEnder88]

I figured B6 would always be the one to bring MEM-BOS back, but I feel like DL could swoop in and resume this route on regional metal and satisfy current demand levels.

 

[johhn14]

BA is bringing a one off A380 on the 29th, a few days after Emirates.

 

[tysmith95]

Could DL serve the Miami metro area year round? Currently they serve PBI seasonally but that is probably the most underserved market for them if they want to attract frequent flyers out of Boston.

I think MIA would be the best option as only AA flies that route currently.

 

[adamh8297]

Could DL serve the Miami metro area year round? Currently they serve PBI seasonally but that is probably the most underserved market for them if they want to attract frequent flyers out of Boston.

I think MIA would be the best option as only AA flies that route currently.

I'm sure they could fill 1-2 daily flights but it may not mint money. They are also doing Ft Lauderdale weekly this season while jumping fully into Tampa.

The available numbers from DOT pool in Manchester, Providence and the allegiant flights from Portsmouth all with both Miami and Fort Lauderdale. Its about 1800-2200 people a day each way (PDEW) with the peak in Q1

For Q1 2016 - BOS/MHT/PVD/PSM - MIA/FLL was 2180 PDEW

DOT Table 6 shows the market leader and the low fare carrier. The market leader, American got about 765 PDEW a day and averages 1110 pax in each direction daily on the route so its about 1/3 connecting traffic. American's load factors on the BOS-MIA flights are in the 90's.

Southwest gets lowest fare with about 355 PDEW a day (mostly from Providence-Ft Lauderdale Service)

One way Fares:

All Airlines - 199.20
Market Share Leader - American - 208.88
Low Fare Leader - Southwest - 180.49

Overall there's more competition on these city pairs than Tampa but the average fares are the same. What we don't know - how many people are flying Boston-Atlanta/JFK-Miami on Delta and what they are paying. Only Delta knows that.

 

[Toucano]

Could DL serve the Miami metro area year round? Currently they serve PBI seasonally but that is probably the most underserved market for them if they want to attract frequent flyers out of Boston.

I think MIA would be the best option as only AA flies that route currently.

DL used to operate direct service to FLL. This was about 6-7 years ago.

 

[mass88]

Someone over on Airliners.net is citing an inside source they know that Avianca will be commencing Bogota-Boston flights starting April 17. It will be interesting to see how reliable this source is. Seems like a short timetable to start international service.

 

[GeneseeJunction]

Begin the Boston A380 era! I know it's not a new route, but Logan now has all pretty much all the hardware in the sky, in scheduled service. Next whale is BA 239 on Sunday evening. Catch it heading out on Monday morning if you fancy.

EK237 today: