Logan Flight Additions

adamh8297

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Though Logan cannot hold on to a Mexico City flight, it appears that with extra long haul slots at Tokyo Haneda Airport, Japan Airlines will be doubling down on Boston-Tokyo service with keeping the Narita flight and adding the daily to Haneda.


You have to translate both articles in Google Chrome Browser or Google Translate.

This may start as soon as the end of March 2020 when Summer Airline Schedules come into play.
 

whighlander

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Though Logan cannot hold on to a Mexico City flight, it appears that with extra long haul slots at Tokyo Haneda Airport, Japan Airlines will be doubling down on Boston-Tokyo service with keeping the Narita flight and adding the daily to Haneda.


You have to translate both articles in Google Chrome Browser or Google Translate.

This may start as soon as the end of March 2020 when Summer Airline Schedules come into play.
Adanh -- this is very important as with the evolution of the US relationship with China -- Tokyo and Seoul will become increasingly important
It would be nice if Singapore Airlines could get us a flight
 

adamh8297

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Adanh -- this is very important as with the evolution of the US relationship with China -- Tokyo and Seoul will become increasingly important
It would be nice if Singapore Airlines could get us a flight
Singapore would be great but non-stop simply isn't viable right now...maybe by 2040. The only thing a BOS-SIN flight serves is SE Asia and a flight to SIN sort of overflies many destinations there (Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand)

Historically - Singapore has used their former ownership with Virgin Atlantic to grab Boston Traffic with the codeshare via London-Heathrow.

Today - not much has changed on that stance and in fact there are more options with this per increased service with the Daytime Heathrow flight.

I checked Singapore's site and they tend to still prefer you go through Heathrow along with feeding the JFK Frankfurt and/or the J-Class EWR flight via JetBlue. Unfortunately, some of layovers can be tight in Heathrow - I wouldn't do 1hr 15 min there. I know Turkish/Lufthansa has a codeshare too and Alaska is feeding the Seattle flight but nothing compares to the Heathrow options.

They have some options for Boston due to JetBlue relationship.

- Fifth freedom to Heathrow - probably too late and expensive slot-wise to do this. They would have to be really confident they could grab business fares (J).
- Fifth freedom to Geneva - J- traffic is there, partner feed potential (Swiss but not sure about their cooperation - Singapore seems to only allow high-fare economy to connect with Lufthansa), but Geneva is not high-volume to BOS or USA in general.
- Fifth freedom to Athens - volume is there, partner feed is there (Aegean), but J traffic isn't
- Fifth freedom to Brussels - somewhat larger market and probably hidden is size due to train access from Amsterdam, some J fares, partner is there as well.

I would love to see the Boston-Geneva-Singapore routing happen but there's another major factor: Emirates, Qatar, Korean, Cathay Pacific (issues in HK could help Singapore find an opening), possible increased Japan service and increased European service may have squeezed Singapore out.
 

Lrfox

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Though Logan cannot hold on to a Mexico City flight, it appears that with extra long haul slots at Tokyo Haneda Airport, Japan Airlines will be doubling down on Boston-Tokyo service with keeping the Narita flight and adding the daily to Haneda.
At first I was surprised, but there are a few reason it actually makes sense:

  1. JL flies low-density 789s to Boston with a very premium-heavy configuration. I've flown the route a bunch (unfortunately only in Y) and the cabin is nearly full each time. JAL has nearly 8 years of data (this route launched in 2012) and overall yields are good. What's more is that whenever I check, Expert Flyer shows J and W as nearly full almost every time. They're doing a good job of filling all seats, but especially so with the premium ones. That's a recipe for success.
  2. Going 2x daily, with one flight to HND and another to NRT improves their already good connection opportunities. NRT is the better jumping off point for International Asia connections (especially SE Asia) which make up a lot of JAL's BOS traffic. HND is better for O&D between Boston and Tokyo as well as better rail and air connections to Japan.
  3. Adding HND makes it tougher for their primary competitor, ANA, to jump into the Boston fray. Especially with Korean up gauging on BOS-ICN next year an offering similar connection opportunities. Both the ICN and NRT flights depart Boston at about the same time already.
  4. The Tokyo Olympics are next summer. If there was ever a time to try the route with minimal risk, it's during the Olympics.
 

BosDevelop

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Here's a bit of a shocker (especially to this UW-Madison grad who used to fly Midwest Express from BOS to Madison via Milwaukee). Sun Country just announced it is going to fly non-stop between Logan and Madison, WI (MSN - Dane County Regional) seasonally starting in May with flights twice weekly. Hopefully these flights continue through the fall football season. https://madison.com/business/dane-county-regional-airport-adds-five-non-stop-destinations/article_267324ed-6406-53be-aaa4-5018ef69b7e1.html#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
 

tysmith95

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Here's a bit of a shocker (especially to this UW-Madison grad who used to fly Midwest Express from BOS to Madison via Milwaukee). Sun Country just announced it is going to fly non-stop between Logan and Madison, WI (MSN - Dane County Regional) seasonally starting in May with flights twice weekly. Hopefully these flights continue through the fall football season. https://madison.com/business/dane-county-regional-airport-adds-five-non-stop-destinations/article_267324ed-6406-53be-aaa4-5018ef69b7e1.html#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
That's surprising. No connecting traffic on either side, and a small market. Plus, not much leisure traffic to the middle of Wisconsin.
 
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kmp1284

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I would have expected Delta to launch Madison eventually. It’s a small market but probably potentially lucrative as the headquarters for Epic Systems. Business travelers certainly aren’t going to chance it with a small leisure airline that only operates a flight twice a week and offers few alternatives in the event of a missed or cancelled flight.
 

jass

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That's surprising. No connecting traffic on either side, and a small market. Plus, not much leisure traffic to the middle of Wisconsin.
Maybe its the opposite?

Folks looking for a Boston vacation?
 

Arlington

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That's surprising. No connecting traffic on either side, and a small market. Plus, not much leisure traffic to the middle of Wisconsin.
Is suspect there's a lot of Biotech & Computer Science connections that have resulted in Madison <--> Boston VFR traffic.
 

BosDevelop

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There are also approximately 1,000 students from New England states who attend UW-Madison. Nowhere near enough to support the route but could help with the May and August loads at least (and maybe October for parent's weekend if the flights continue through fall). Prices of these flights are cheap and much less than connecting in Chicago or Detroit.
 

Lrfox

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How cool! Boston is 3rd highest in BA's most popular route for business class.

Really interesting stuff. Boston is the highest fare per mile, and the 4th highest average fare out of the bunch. I wonder what type of dent Delta and eventually JetBlue will put in the fare numbers.
 

kmp1284

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How cool! Boston is 3rd highest in BA's most popular route for business class.

The premise of the article, that Boston is one of BA’s strongest business class markets, doesn’t come as a shock but the passenger numbers for Boston and all of the US routes seem very low.
 

Arlington

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There are also approximately 1,000 students from New England states who attend UW-Madison.
...and then you do this for 10 years, and you've got 10,000 families and 10,000 employers (and probably several hundred academics with connections) and a lot of people with the $ and reasons for travel.
 

jass

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Theres a file out there by the FAA or someone that tracks how many trips are made daily between every city in the US with an airport.

So you can see, for example, that 17 people every day make the trip between Boston and Mobile Alabama (made up example).

That answers current demand. Then an airline like spirit can say "we can create demand by offering the trip for $39"
 

whighlander

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The premise of the article, that Boston is one of BA’s strongest business class markets, doesn’t come as a shock but the passenger numbers for Boston and all of the US routes seem very low.
KMP -- the key is the numbers refer to point to point passengers traveling at business class fare
So for Boston Logan to London Heathrow - 18,574 passengers originated in Boston and terminated in London this doesn't count people who arrived via some flight to BOS and continued on by some flight from LHR. For example someone who started a journey in Burlington VT arriving at BOS by flying like a ping pong ball:

  1. 5:48am to 7:44am 1h 56m Burlington Intl. (BTV) to Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA)
  2. Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) to Greater Rochester Intl. (ROC)
  3. 1:46pm to 3:09pm Greater Rochester Intl. (ROC) to Logan Intl. (BOS)
  4. and then boarding the overnight to LHR
  5. and then upon arrival in London continuing on to Lerwick [on Shetland Island] from LHR 6:50 AM Heathrow Airport LHR 8:25 AM Aberdeen Airport ABZ
  6. 10:30 AM Aberdeen Airport ABZ 11:30 AM Sumburgh Airport LSI Shetland Island

That flight doesn't count because the origin was BVT and the termination point was LSI
now of course if you arrived at BOS and spend the night in a hotel room and did the same in London before continuing -- then you would have had a BOS-- LHR flight and you would have counted

Or if you boarded a bus in Downtown Burlington VT for Boston South Station Bus Terminal then walked to the Silver Line and took SL1 from South Station to Terminal E then flew BOS - LHR then boarded a Train to Paddington Station followed by a Tube to Victoria Station then walk to the Victoria Bus Terminal board a bus to Aberdeen and then via a ferry to Shetland Island with a final bus to Lerwick -- might take a mite longer but it would count

Somewhat useless statistics
 

kmp1284

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KMP -- the key is the numbers refer to point to point passengers traveling at business class fare
So for Boston Logan to London Heathrow - 18,574 passengers originated in Boston and terminated in London this doesn't count people who arrived via some flight to BOS and continued on by some flight from LHR. For example someone who started a journey in Burlington VT arriving at BOS by flying like a ping pong ball:

  1. 5:48am to 7:44am 1h 56m Burlington Intl. (BTV) to Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA)
  2. Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA) to Greater Rochester Intl. (ROC)
  3. 1:46pm to 3:09pm Greater Rochester Intl. (ROC) to Logan Intl. (BOS)
  4. and then boarding the overnight to LHR
  5. and then upon arrival in London continuing on to Lerwick [on Shetland Island] from LHR 6:50 AM Heathrow Airport LHR 8:25 AM Aberdeen Airport ABZ
  6. 10:30 AM Aberdeen Airport ABZ 11:30 AM Sumburgh Airport LSI Shetland Island

That flight doesn't count because the origin was BVT and the termination point was LSI
now of course if you arrived at BOS and spend the night in a hotel room and did the same in London before continuing -- then you would have had a BOS-- LHR flight and you would have counted

Or if you boarded a bus in Downtown Burlington VT for Boston South Station Bus Terminal then walked to the Silver Line and took SL1 from South Station to Terminal E then flew BOS - LHR then boarded a Train to Paddington Station followed by a Tube to Victoria Station then walk to the Victoria Bus Terminal board a bus to Aberdeen and then via a ferry to Shetland Island with a final bus to Lerwick -- might take a mite longer but it would count

Somewhat useless statistics
No kidding Dr. Obvious. I read the article and fully understand what type of passenger is being counted. All I’m saying is that based on my experiences on this route and other routes on that list those numbers don’t seem accurate.
 

HelloBostonHi

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No kidding Dr. Obvious. I read the article and fully understand what type of passenger is being counted. All I’m saying is that based on my experiences on this route and other routes on that list those numbers don’t seem accurate.
How do you based on your experiences on this route know how many people are making flight connections at either end?
 

whighlander

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No kidding Dr. Obvious. I read the article and fully understand what type of passenger is being counted. All I’m saying is that based on my experiences on this route and other routes on that list those numbers don’t seem accurate.
Kmp -- If you think that the numbers are questionable there are two alternatives:
1) they are being deceptive intentionally -- Why
2) they don't know how to count their own passengers -- That's their business

So if neither of those -- then the problem is one of our perception

Here are a couple of tests of the numbers:
#1
How many business class seats are there available between BOS and LHR for each type of aircraft BA is flying on the route?
How many flights per year are there of each of the aircraft types
the rest is arithmetic to get an upper bound assuming all the passengers are point to point
If this number is about 2X the quoted number -- then I'd trust the quoted number

#2
How many total passengers flew the BOS - LHR last year -- that should be an easy number to get
What fraction of the each type of plane's capacity is business class seating -- get some kind of average for the different aircraft types
multiply
once again compare this number to the quoted one
 

adamh8297

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Kmp -- If you think that the numbers are questionable there are two alternatives:
1) they are being deceptive intentionally -- Why
2) they don't know how to count their own passengers -- That's their business

So if neither of those -- then the problem is one of our perception

Here are a couple of tests of the numbers:
#1
How many business class seats are there available between BOS and LHR for each type of aircraft BA is flying on the route?
How many flights per year are there of each of the aircraft types
the rest is arithmetic to get an upper bound assuming all the passengers are point to point
If this number is about 2X the quoted number -- then I'd trust the quoted number

#2
How many total passengers flew the BOS - LHR last year -- that should be an easy number to get
What fraction of the each type of plane's capacity is business class seating -- get some kind of average for the different aircraft types
multiply
once again compare this number to the quoted one
From this report about the viability for Long-Haul to Stansted.

O+D from Boston to all London Airports was 1.085 million which is almost 1500 PDEW each day.
Total Business/First class traffic is 42,800 almost 60 PDEW a day. Seems light as Kmp1284 posted above.

The other J/F seats are getting connecting traffic. One market, albeit small, that BA gets some high yielding passengers is Boston-Geneva. See page 4 of this study by a French-Swiss Consulting firm for Boston/Chicago-Geneva viability:

There is also great information on how certain markets have grown over the past few years from the 2011 Brookings report - notably London, Barcelona and Lisbon. The O+D data for London is smaller than the Stansted. I know some MIDT data sources only contain tickets purchased on Global Distribution Systems and not direct with airlines.
 

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