Missing ingredient is the breakdown of cultural norms. That happens when the economy tanks because the alienating effects of the pulse in income stratification induces fracturing of formerly semi-stable communities and precipitous decline in formerly unstable ones. Anomie in its varied forms.Economy gets worse, you'd expect higher crime, no?
However...this pandemic doesn't necessarily follow the same playbook because right now we're way more clued into public health harms reductions and what other people are doing viz-a-viz that. Yes, people are more isolated...but stuff like social distancing, mask wearing, etc. is also community-enforced so in some key aspects the ties that bind our norms are stronger than in the usual economic crises (see also: parenting, and stressful adjustments-on-fly to parenting skills being a form of great equalizer felt across all strata of society right now). Plus there's a whole bunch of other upheaval competing for our attention sending stray variables into the mix. I could see both increases and decreases in certain types of crime, cutting counterintuitively like we haven't seen before...and it taking a really long time for us to process why because there's still a lot that's going on we don't have good enough understanding of.
You can pretty much throw out your Sociology 101 book on anomie; we're writing an entirely different one here.