At the end of the day, matching capacity (train length and frequency) is going to be the most important factor for which lines run through:
- The most important new connections are within the downtown core - northside lines to South Station/Back Bay/Ruggles/Lansdowne, southside lines to North Station, and the ability to transfer at South Station between Fairmount/OC and Back Bay/Ruggles/Lansdowne.
- The intention is that frequencies are high enough that the more common transfers aren't long waits. Almost everything inside 128 should be getting 15-minute or better frequency, and the bigger nodes like Lynn and Salem are likely to be higher.
- The number of people going from outside-128 to outside-128 (i.e, 30-minute headways on both ends) is going to be very low, to the point where we don't need to be prioritizing one-seat rides for those rides.
J-B (Lowell-Providence) and D/E-F (Nport/Rockport-Worcester) are always the pairs that get mentioned - they're the highest ridership lines, so most likely to match on capacity needs, especially since they're likely to have local-express pairs. They would also be the priorities to have one-seat rides to Back Bay/Ruggles/Lansdowne due to that higher ridership.
Agreed. Unless we decide to use a "round robin" approach where lines alternate pairings so that all routes have at least one OSR to Back Bay/Ruggles/Lansdowne/Porter per hour, then yeah, we're looking at matching like-for-like.
It's actually rather pleasant how nicely some of the match-ups are:
- Lowell <> Providence
- High ridership, and short travel times due to few stops and shorter distance (Lowell)/high-speed potential (Providence)
- Can include layered-in interstate extensions (e.g. to Wickford Junction and to Nashua/Manchester) at lower frequencies
- South Coast Rail <> Haverhill
- Assuming Haverhill is served via Wildcat, matching it with SCR mirrors how the NEC provides a "double trunk" to Canton Junction, the same way the NH Main Line would provide a "double trunk" to Wilmington
- And if in some wild future the Methuen Branch is resurrected, then there you go -- you have your "branch at 495 with short branches serving separate cities with only a couple of stops per branch" mirror to the FR/NB split at East Taunton
- Fram/Wor <> Rockburyport
- Spurs to Riverside and Peabody provide mirroring short-turn within-128 service
- If a branch to Marlboro is built, then Framingham and Beverly become mirroring diverging points roughly the same distance from Boston, splitting off into lower-density 495 suburbs before interlining to provide higher-frequency service within the denser areas
- Pairing these two isn't perfect; Worcester is farther than either Newburyport or Rockport, and potentially would introduce express service that wouldn't really have a northside equivalent. And while Newburyport doesn't have low ridership, it's much lower than either Framingham or Worcester; the Worcester Line's ridership is weighted toward the outer half, while the Rockburyport Line's ridership is weighted toward the middle (though it is indeed very high ridership in that middle)
- That said, Providence <> Lowell is, in my opinion, the strongest pairing of all, which gives you the choice of pairing Fram/Wor with Rockburyport or with Fitchburg, and 100% Rockburyport is the stronger of those two
- "Leftovers" <> Fitchburg
- This one is a bit messier, but has some benefits going for it. The Fitchburg Line doesn't have any "midpoint cities" like Framingham or Salem, and has no diverging branches, so frequencies from the outer section of the line will be lower than on other northside lines, which means there will be capacity for short-turns at Waltham or Weston
- That extra capacity makes Waltham ideal for receiving the high-frequency Fairmount services (which will probably contain most Franklin line trains at that point), as well as gathering up the various Old Colony trains which themselves can become a relief for the Red Line: Quincy <> South Station <> Porter
Now, to be clear, all of the above represents such an "ideal" scenario that it really is just a thought exercise on comparing similar northside and southside corridors. Unless a viable dual-mode solution is found, actual pairings in a post-NSRL world will be governed first by which lines are electrified when (and
@BeyondRevenue, to your point, I think this question will be the politicizing one).
Ironically, given that excess capacity I described, I would wager that Waltham/Weston will probably get electrified first on the northside, to receive through-run trains from Providence and Fairmount (which will definitely be the first electrified southside lines). After that, I think the waters get murkier.
Lowell has a strong anchor terminus and shortest distance, but has some freight responsibilities I still don't quite understand which add complexity. Rockburyport is a strong contender within-128, but lacks strong anchors at the termini: electrifying all the way out to Newburyport while Lowell and Haverhill (with higher ridership and higher populations) get stuck with diesel will seem like an odd prioritization, but on the other hand electrifying only to Salem/Peabody will give you less bang-for-buck because you'll still be intermingling those through-running diesels.
In the past, I've figured that you could start with northside electrification on both the Eastern Route and the Lowell Line that ends at Woburn and Salem/Peabody, as a reasonable compromise to provide electric service through the NSRL while longer distance diesel commuter rail trains would continue to intermix. As mentioned above, this does reduce the efficiency of electrification because you're still running diesel trains, but it has seemed like a reasonable compromise in the past.
I'm more skeptical of the idea now though: if we're serious about 30-min headways to the outer termini (which maybe is debatable for Rockport and Newburyport, but I think easily justified for Lowell and Haverhill), that means the within-128 stretches are already at 15-min diesel service with 4 tph. How many NSRL trains per hour can we realistically layer on top of that? And would we end up over-serving the corridors? I could see the North Shore making good use of 7.5-min headways, and maybe the same for Waltham, but seems like overkill for Woburn.
Anyway, this is diverging off-topic and rehashing points I raised in the NSRL thread a few months ago, so I'll leave it there. tl;dr: In an ideal world, there are actually some very nice pair-matches! In practice, it will be more complicated. It's like they say: "Campaign in poetry, govern in prose."
(
@F-Line to Dudley could the T use the same solution that Amtrak has come up with, where the passenger coaches carry the pantographs?)