@737900er Great data, thanks!
View attachment 32768
I pulled the 2018 data because I don't trust the 2019 numbers
I would have never guessed Prudential and Symphony (especially the latter) would have more boardings than the LMA stops. Same for the streetcar section combined. Is ridership to LMA lower than I thought?
The 39's ridership looks much more like a traditional radial bus, so if it was cut back, those passengers would mostly get on at (relatively) low ridership time. The real problem is that the PM Peak on the E is the highest point on the entire Green branch system:
With the E's ridership profile diagrams in mind, that may not be too big of a problem. The E's PM peak ridership is more geared towards
entering the Central Subway, whereas passengers riding the 39 back home would probably transfer from the E
leaving the Central Subway.
Even then, I think capacity may still be an issue. Here's the 39's ridership by trip in the Better Bus Profile:
Inbound ridership starts high and is highest from 6:00 AM to 9:00 AM, with most trips exceeding 60 boardings and some trips with over 90 boardings (see Figure 4). Midday ridership generally ranges from 45 to over 80 passengers. PM peak ridership per trip is generally 60 to 70 passengers. Ridership then drops off rapidly beginning at about 7:00 PM, declining from 30 passengers per trip to around 5 passengers per trip towards the end of service.
Outbound ridership starts with lower volumes, increasing to 30 to 40 passengers during the AM peak (see Figure 5). From 11:00 AM to the beginning of the PM peak it grows from around 40 passengers per trip to over 60. PM peak ridership is then extremely high with most trips carrying more than 80 passengers and one trip carrying more than 110 passengers. Evening ridership declines from around 50 to 70 passengers at 7:00 PM to fewer than 20 around midnight.
The 39 ran 5-min average frequencies during AM peak pre-Covid. The E's frequency is actually slightly worse than that, and can't be increased easily due to the Central Subway's capacity limits. Dumping 60+ passengers to each E train is questionable, even if ridership on inbound E is lower than outbound during AM peak, and even if many passengers get off at LMA.
One thing the Profile diagram doesn't illustrate that well is how the vast majority of passengers on the 39 have exited by the time it leaves Prudential. A huge number get off in the shared section of the E.
View attachment 32767
Gotta admit, I had no idea Forest Hills would have this many boardings. 1/3 of all boardings, and 2/3 of peak number of passengers onboard. Although it does appear that this combines both AM peak and PM peak inbound trips (and all other times), so the 2180 boardings at Forest Hills also includes up to 900 that will alight in Jamaica Plain: these are probably PM riders transferring from OL.
Here's the excerpt from the Better Bus Profile. I tried to analyze this (e.g. how many passengers alighting at LMA are from Forest Hills), but the combined data is too messy to be useful.
• Just over one third of all Route 39 inbound riders (2,180) board at Forest Hills Station. This is by far the highest boarding stop on the route (no other stop reaches 400 daily boardings).
• Both boardings and alightings are very high along South Street and Centre Street, with a total of 1,440 boardings and 900 alightings.
• A total of 870 passengers board and 360 alight along South Huntington Avenue. The VA Hospital stop along this section is one of Route 39’s lowest ridership stops.
• Ridership activity increases along Huntington Avenue. The two stops before the Longwood Medical area serve 510 boardings and 670 alightings.
• The three stops that serve the Longwood Medical Area serve a total of 620 boardings and 1,420 alightings. The highest ridership stop is Huntington Avenue at Fenwood Avenue, which is the stop closest to the Brigham and Women’s Hospital complex off of Francis Street (190 boardings and 730 alightings).
• A total of 210 passengers board and 760 alight at the remaining three stops on Huntington Avenue, two of which serve Northeastern University.
• A total of 70 passengers board and 350 alight on the jog over to Boylston Street via Belvidere Street and Dalton Street.
• A total of 52 passengers board and 310 alight at the two stops on Boylston Street before Copley Station.
• 30 passengers board and 480 alight at Boylston Street at Dartmouth Street, which is the stop closest to Copley Station.
• 510 passengers alight at the final stop at Back Bay Station.
