If memory serves, I think you got it pretty much right. It was about absorbing realistic delays. Here's the report:
http://www.caltrain.com/Assets/Calt...alifornia+HSR+Blended+Operations+Analysis.pdf
As far as commuter rail frequency studies are concerned, you'll need to ask F-Line. I believe that what he will tell you is that Needham is such a low priority into SS that it will be sqeezed out of existence by NEC service as it is, so higher-frequency service would be a wasted study with any vehicles. The future of Needham is in GL/OL conversion, not enhanced CR.
Thanks for the link! Will definitely take a look.
The idea about Needham service, for what it's worth, is actually partially in response to those concerns about capacity. It's not so much about enhanced CR as it is about redesigned CR.
There are three components to this area of my proposal:
1) Needham Junction to Needham Heights is replaced by an extension of the E Line, running up the Highland Branch to Brookline Village, and then over a new D-E connector to Riverway, going up Huntington into Downtown. According to my information, the travel time from Brookline Village to Park Street and from Riverway to Park Street is identical at 20 minutes; prune out a couple of stops west of Brigham Circle, and you should be good. (I'm thinking of dividing E Line service, with some trains heading out to Needham and others jogging down to Heath.) This addresses capacity concerns in the Central Subway and provides more people with one-seat rides to Longwood Medical Area (and Northeastern).
2) The Orange Line is extended to Roslindale Village, and the bus hub is relocated there as well, drastically reducing the number of buses on Washington Street between those two stations.
3) Service on the remainder of the Needham Line (Needham Junction through Forest Hills) is now covered, regardless of frequency, primarily by DMUs, with push-pulls relegated elsewhere in the system.
Downtown Needham is pretty walkable as is, and would be greatly enhanced by LRT. It's a perfect fit for the highly successful transit village model presently in place on the rest of the D Line.
Some issues arise, though:
1) This model is probably somewhat less friendly for folks looking to commute from Needham into downtown– presumably not as speedy. Hence my desire to maintain some sort of "express" service, geared towards commuters who drive into Needham from Millis, Medfield and the hinterlands of Needham, etc. But is there enough ridership to demand that, in the face of relatively frequent Green Line service? (I'm thinking that my extended E Line would not be as frequent in its outer sections as it currently is on Huntington. Maybe closer to 10-min peak headways. Not sure yet.)
2) Regardless of ridership outside of 128– what about Roslindale and West Roxbury? My plan is geared towards the next ten years; while eventually it might be feasible to extend the Orange Line all the way to West Roxbury, I think it's much more likely (and still a bit of a long shot) to only make it to Roslindale Village in the next decade. So, in the mean time, what to do with those other stops? Is there enough demand to warrant Fairmount-like frequencies, perhaps short-turning at West Roxbury?
Finally, regarding capacity:
- NEC pressure would be reduced, somewhat, by folding most Franklin Line service into Fairmount runs, contributing to 15-minute headways on that corridor. (Certainly any Foxboro service that comes along will go straight into Fairmount.)
- Furthermore, some of those Franklin commuter rail trains, some Fairmount Line Indigo-ish trains, and perhaps half of my proposed Needham Indigo-ish trains, would not go into South Station, but would instead swing around the Cove Loop and head back out. This would return some Franklin Line service to Back Bay, and would provide a way to increase frequencies on both the Fairmount and West Roxbury(/Needham) corridors, with the logic that at least some of the ridership on those corridors is not necessarily interested in downtown, but is more interested in moving from one part of the city to another outside of the core (ie. Blue Hill Ave to Newmarket, or West Roxbury to Ruggles). Certainly folks coming from Needham/West Roxbury would be okay, since they can hop on the Orange Line and actually have more flexibility in their final destination downtown. South Station is a little on the periphery of the Financial District, compared to the stops on the Orange Line, so this isn't necessarily a bad thing for them. Fairmount service avoiding South Station has me a little more worried, though.