F-Line to Dudley
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You've done a very good job in outlining all the separate projects/enhancements that need to be completed and open for business before we can actually take over the Grand Junction. Some of these projects can be lumped together under a single unified banner and most of them are all things that needed to happen 15 years ago, but the fact of the matter is that there's absolutely a rather frighteningly long checklist of stuff to get done with before the Urban Ring can proceed.
Yes...but nearly all of them are happening regardless of a GJ project.
-- Southside will be getting a maint facility of its own because BET is overloaded with the system's growth. It definitely doesn't have the space to lump DMU heavy maint on top of all else, so we've already hit 'trigger' for a southside facility build. So long as the site selection and building configuration leaves lots of expansion space to add to the facility later (no-brainer, because if they ever add electrics that'll require a new wing) this is happening. And can scale up.
-- Ditto the storage space with the efforts to relocate the cold storage building at Widett Circle, possible use of Beacon Park, and possible future relocations @ Widett of the BTD tow lot and Boston Food Market. Southside will get more storage space than the northside. This is happening, and can scale up.
-- Every new vehicle purchase cycle adds to the fleet. Exercising the Rotem coach option order would give them full flex to bank a few Bombardier single-levels as a reserve or specialty conversions (bike car, Cape Flyer cafe car). The DMU's are not displacing any push-pull equipment because the daily push-pull usage stays the same (except for the meager Fairmount contingent getting scattered elsewhere. RIDOT is increasing its % ownership of the fleet, allowing better economy of cost scale on each purchase. This is happening, and can scale up.
-- The Worcester Branch is in the State Freight and Rail plan for upgrades: http://www.massdot.state.ma.us/portals/17/docs/freightplan/MAFreightPlanSeptember2010v2.pdf. See p. 46 of the document. It needs this for freight only because it's a heavy-use interchange between Pan Am and CSX and the primary autorack route for Massachusetts. Now, it's behind mainline improvements to Pan Am, P&W, and NECR in the priority queue, but since all of those are 2015-2020 projects this will be a 2020-2022 target. The increase in rail weight pretty much will ensure the pure shit infrastructure gets upgraded enough to support 25 MPH freight/35 MPH passenger. This is happening, and it gets taken care of from freight-only MassDOT funds so it's not coming from the T's budget.
All that leaves left on the RR side are the paperwork stuff like freight re-routes and Amtrak/Downeaster maint. Then making sure the facility and fleet expansions scale up enough to provide adequate north vs. south separation. The base builds happen on a timetable shorter than the earliest conceivable design for an Urban Ring conversion. The only additional dependencies are the follow-through on acquiring the last of the Widett storage space and adding onto the (likely Readville) maint building to be self-sufficient on all the southside coaches. Those are not big costs when the rest is in place.
The big one is going to be the Red and Orange improvements to square the on-peak transfer times to NS and Kendall with the existing off-peak times. That is the major-major follow-through that all the dire predictions say is necessary by 2030 or else downtown locks solid. So that's a wholly independent issue from Urban Ring project scope needing wholly independent motivation to get it done. CBTC, 3 min. headways, reliable vehicles, flow/egress improvements at the overstuffed transfer stations, and load-spreading links (at bare minimum Red-Blue).
But did I not specifically say this can't all happen in a one tactical nuclear strike? All that stuff that is happening is on its own schedules, with its own stakeholders. The vehicle procurements only happen once every few years, take 3 or 4 years to procure after signing a contract, and have to get programmed into the fiscal year budgets 2 or 3 years ahead of that. The next big one (retirement of all remaining single-level coaches and all 1980's-90's locomotives) times at 2020. There are labor agreement things to square before that Readville building they're going to build can get staffed.
You can't just say "DO IT ALL NOW!" when bureaucratically it's impossible to accelerate some of that timing-specific and logistics-specific stuff. I keep saying this; you keep doubling-down on your denial of this. It doesn't fucking work that way. You can't dictate it to work that way. Again...how do you plan to get elected Planning God and "make it so"? Answer that for us before the next time you stamp your feet about this with indignation.
What part of my explanation of "the lesser crossings don't matter until the #1 limiter is solved" do you not understand here? There is NO gain from a "smaller project" as long as Mass Ave., Main, and Broadway exist. None. It's lighting money on fire for pure Transit OCD aesthetics and diluting the focus and resources from a permanent solution. It is not checking something off a to-do list. It is not even established that you have to get rid of anything more than Mass Ave. on LRT or BRT to achieve the full headways of those modes. So why are we wasting our time with "must be so's" that don't fucking matter.Now, I'm not calling for the full trench like some other posters because it is a massive overbuild and more trouble than its worth, in the context of a half-assed Diet Urban Ring to replace the satisfying full-bodied taste of an Urban Ring Classic.
But undertaking comparatively smaller projects to zap the Mass Ave, Cambridge St, and Medford St crossings (and, if possible, Binney by just dead-ending Binney) gets rid of three (or four) out of six grade crossings and improves the situation substantially. You're down to two (okay, the worst two) crossings, but they're both within close proximity of each other. You might then be able to run an extended glorified passing siding through here in such a way that two trains can move through the crossings going in the opposite direction at the same time, and you can then time it out so that the crossing is only blocked for 30~60 seconds, every 15 minutes or so. Not great, but a fraction of the cost of the megatrench and will last us 35 years.
And did I not say sinking Mass Ave. crossing is not a transit project that the T can initiate? MassHighway + MIT. That's a separate thread altogether. You cannot hang a grand DMU vision on that as a project requirement, only pounce on it if the other parties do it for campus or road reasons. And furthermore, Main and Broadway then become the limiters...significant ones at that likewise preventing 15 min. headways. And it is equally superfluous fluff to check off Cambridge, Medford, or Binney with those as the service limiters. The traffic counts in the study show that in plain numbers.
It does not matter how often facts get cited, CBS, when every time you just cover your ears and double-down on the "must be so's" in your own head. You won't accept the traffic counts listed plain as day. You won't accept the concept of headway-limiting crossings. You won't accept that DMU's are not capable of rapid transit headways. You won't accept that we have two union stations mixing all manner of traffic.
There's nothing more to discuss if you refuse to substantiate your counterpoints with anything more than intensity of belief.
And see all of the above. You won't accept the validity of empirical data. What are you substantiating this with beyond your own intensity of belief? There's no discussion taking place here when facts get trumped by one's own transit religion. I'm all out of ideas. Either live in your bubble or join the real fact-based world. It's your choice alone.We want it to last us 35 years - because that's how long it's going to take us to get through the laundry list of railroad projects pre-requisite to Grand Junction closure - at which point, we pay again to upgrade this thing to the full-fat Urban Ring. Sure, we paid twice when we didn't have to. But in paying the first time, we got a stop-gap measure to extend "good enough" transit over this thing and hold us over for the next 35 years. It isn't worth paying for if stop-gap patch-ups are what the Grand Junction gets as transit forever, but I'm arguing that it's worth paying extra to have the appetizer 35 years ahead of the main course.
Who knows? Maybe, against all odds, it takes off like a rocket to the moon and causes everything else to fall into place just a little bit faster, greased by proven demand.