Heres a reasonable transit pitch nobody has heard of....... Dont cancel the fucking DMU's. I knew it was too good to be true, made too much sense for it to work.
The plug was only pulled on the RFP about 3 weeks before the due date, which strongly hints to no manufacturers submitting a bid. That's not canceled so much as truncated. Doesn't make much sense
why that was the case, as the vehicle specs differed very little from other recent FRA-compliant orders and didn't throw any red flags. Maybe Nippon-Sharyo's five-star meltdown on the Amtrak bi-level corridor coach design and collision course with a messy contract penalty fight got corporate circling the wagons around the big profit centers and taking a one-time pass on chasing small stuff.
At any rate, this was only an RFP. It's the new normal with the actual
manufacturing contract that comes after the RFP that any newfangled computer-heavy 21st century rolling stock design takes no less than 5 years from contract inking to get a new full fleet in full service with uninterrupted availability. Even when they arrive for first revenue trials it's an agonizing 18 months of testing the pilot vehicles before the rest of the units get released en masse from the factory, then an uneven debugging and warranty period to pound out the bugs on-the-fly. It's as true with new-tech vehicles that 'just work' as it is with the ones that are moderately tortured (HSP-46's) or irredeemable junk ('Brokems). So it's not like this would ever go down with pomp-and-circumstance for "Day 1" of full Indigo service displacing shitty old Fairmount commuter rail paper schedules. There would be a period of
years where the service would have to scale up with a boring old locomotive hauling 4 coaches and a modicum of extra schedule padding...then a gradual handoff to the new fleet with push-pulls still holding down the reserve slots...then a shedding of the schedule padding and general tightening-up after the MUs' warranty period.
So the fact that there was zero, nada detail given about the actual final service plan and timetable for scale-up, plus pronounced aversion in the year after Gov. Patrick's 2024 fantasy map announcement to answering any questions on the matter when pressed for specifics by the public...is all you really need to know. It was always the service plan, never the vehicles that was going to determine if Indigo was real or a tease. You can't even plot the logistical deployment of vehicles with a 5-7 year planning gestation period without knowing what/where/how often they're going to run and what the transition plan is. Doesn't even work with a "We'll slip these on the midday and evenings on regular CR schedules for some TBD period until we've (maybe) ready, and then we'll announce a 'Save The Date' for
full...on...Indigo...LAUNCH!" What lines get capital $$$ appropriated to equip their outer layovers so the MU's can be tested out to I-495, which lines' crews get qualified on them, etc. etc. all influences the deployment timetable. And influences to some degree what contract clauses the manufacturer is going to be held to on warranty.
No enumerated service plan or transition timetable sketched out 5-7 years in advance, pointless exercise to try to bid out a real-money manufacturing contract 5-7 years in advance. So paper RFP is about as far as one can go on nothing but TBD's, a 12-year-old Fairmount operations study, and a 3-year old set of Keolis bid docs on how they
theoretically would run Indigo headways if they won the operator contract.
The whole "The vehicle
is the service" line of BS was all about Boston 2024 and impressing some very rich and very corrupt kingmakers. Once that motivation went away, lowly little Dorchester was the only thing holding the gnat's attention span. They knew all along that implementing the service would take a several-steps interim scale-up that started with push-pulls, blended, then ended with DMU's. And knew that D-Day on that service plan had way, way less to do with getting under 10 minutes on the stopwatch for vehicle turnaround time and WAY, WAY more to do with fare portability between modes and sticking to their guns on keeping all-day headways consistent for a committed period of years knowing full well that it would entail a lot of empty off-peak trains before ridership growth unevenly filled out the clock. Achieving the minimum possible vehicular headway was never the bar for "
full...on...Indigo...LAUNCH!" Equitable fare, easy or free transfers to Red, and not having to keep a paper schedule because the headways were predictable counting up or down to an interval like a local bus was the value proposition. 25- or even 30-minute headways at kickoff is a fantastic deal for attracting riders if it keeps those intra-city transit promises of equitability and consistency, and sheds the isolating effects of that peak-skewed CR paper schedule. Pounding that headway down to 15 minutes, undercutting push-pull operating costs at a certain high-frequency threshold, and having intra-city optimized onboard seating are just the final follow-throughs for sustainable lifetime service momentum. Giving that sales pitch ass-backwards and overly 'shiny things'-centric was a great big red flag.