Reasonable Transit Pitches

[bigeman312]

^^ I'm sure F-Line will have a more comprehensive answer, but my first thought is that it matters when this express happens. Rush hour? Mid-day? Early morning, returning late night?

Also, in the PVD-BOS market, an MBTA express would be competing against Amtrak. The T could try to sell their service by doing it cheaper, but I'm still not sure it would really do much.

(Actually, they'd also be competing with Amtrak in the WOR-BOS market as well, so maybe I'm wrong.)

I considered this. Both Providence and Worcester are already successful when competing with Amtrak because of cost. Worcester is introducing a train that will be (presumably) competitive on time and cost. Why not Providence?

 

[Matthew]

Curiously, Caltrain travels about 47 miles from SJ to SF and makes about 20-something stops in about 1.5 hours. Their express "baby bullet" does the same distance in just under an hour making 5-6 stops. They use similar locomotives and comparable operational incompetence. The Worcester line, although curvier, ought to be able to beat those schedules now that they have basically full control of the track.

 

[Commuting Boston Student]

(Actually, they'd also be competing with Amtrak in the WOR-BOS market as well, so maybe I'm wrong.)

There's one train - the Lake Shore Limited - that leaves at 11:55 am and takes an hour to go to Worcester. Amtrak has labeled the returning trip a "stops to discharge only" - they will not sell you a WOR-BOS ticket. An express train to Worcester and back wouldn't be competitive with Amtrak at all because you're as close to 'no market presence' as you can possibly get without having that one train not stop at all.

Incidentally, Framingham and Back Bay are also both listed as receive-only (outbound) / discharge-only (outbound), so an express train would likely move BOS-BBY-FRA-WOR, and thus be moving into a totally untapped market.

 

[Riverside]

There's one train - the Lake Shore Limited - that leaves at 11:55 am and takes an hour to go to Worcester. Amtrak has labeled the returning trip a "stops to discharge only" - they will not sell you a WOR-BOS ticket. An express train to Worcester and back wouldn't be competitive with Amtrak at all because you're as close to 'no market presence' as you can possibly get without having that one train not stop at all.

Incidentally, Framingham and Back Bay are also both listed as receive-only (outbound) / discharge-only (outbound), so an express train would likely move BOS-BBY-FRA-WOR, and thus be moving into a totally untapped market.

Wow; I hadn't released that Amtrak runs so few trains out that way. Shouldn't be surprised though. I doubt the Boston-Albany market, or even the Boston-Chicago market, is that big. What time of day is this new MBTA express gonna be?

I considered this. Both Providence and Worcester are already successful when competing with Amtrak because of cost. Worcester is introducing a train that will be (presumably) competitive on time and cost. Why not Providence?

Well, it looks like a WOR-BOS train would not really be competing with Amtrak after all, so the comparison is not as useful.

But still: would that many people get on in Providence to make a non-stop trip cost effective? (I don't mean that rhetorically or sarcastically, I really don't know what the costs of such a run would be.) Is there that large of a demand in Providence to get to Boston cheaply and quickly but not necessarily at a convenient time?

And that brings us back to my first question: when during the day are you proposing this express run?

 

[Commuting Boston Student]

But still: would that many people get on in Providence to make a non-stop trip cost effective? (I don't mean that rhetorically or sarcastically, I really don't know what the costs of such a run would be.) Is there that large of a demand in Providence to get to Boston cheaply and quickly but not necessarily at a convenient time?

Keep in mind, there's also a cost to available resources - that's one more train in a slot which can't be used by the Northeast Regional or the Acela Express and that's one less train assigned to the normal Providence/Stoughton Line. Now, while one more train is not going to make or break the corridor, I have trouble believing that an express to Providence is ever going to survive on the strength of a market that wants a 40-minute ride to Boston but DOESN'T want to spend an extra $4 on the Amtrak ticket ($14 versus $10) or $46 on the Amtrak monthly pass ($360 versus $314) because I just don't think that market exists, especially not when you consider that train is probably taking service away from people who would board it at Attleboro or Mansfield but can't because the new schedule expresses it through.

 

[bigeman312]

Honestly, my proposal was to mimic the Worcester express train. But since that time hasn't been released we can only speculate. I guess the ideal time I would want it to leave would depend on its speed, as I don't want to mess up the timetables of other trains that much. I do believe the demand is there. The statistics do not (and could not, really) exist, but I'd bet that the majority of riders who board in Providence, get off at Ruggles, Back Bay or South Station as is, and the intermediate stops serve mostly for boarding passengers.

Providence to Boston:

Assuming a conservative average speed of 50mph, and thus a travel time from Providence to Back Bay of 51 minutes, the train would pass Canton Junction about 35 minutes after leaving Providence. So, ideally, it would leave Providence at 8:00 AM (after the 7:35 and before the 8:20), pass through (but not stop) at Canton Junction at 8:35 (before the 8:40 stop from a Stoughton originating train), and stop at Back Bay at 8:51 and arrive at South Station at 8:56. The train that left Providence at 7:35 is scheduled to stop at Back Bay at 8:46 and arrive at South Station at 8:51.

Of course, this is in a utopian society in which trains depart and arrive on time. I don't know what the fleet/tracks are capable of in terms of speed, but 50 mph average seems conservative. It would need to be coordinated with other Back Bay trains (both MBTA and Amtrak), but that's a clusterfuck as is. If the train were capable of higher speeds (great), shifting the timetable a bit might be in order. Plus, flying through Canton Junction five minutes ahead of another train and arriving at Back Bay five minutes on the heals of another one may be, but shouldn't be, hard to pull off on a daily basis.

Boston to Providence:

Leave Back Bay 5:35 and stop at Back Bay at 5:40. (There is an existing Stoughton bound train that leaves SS at 5:15 and a Providence bound train that leaves SS at 5:40). The express would pass by Canton Junction at 5:56 (the previous train stops at 5:48) and arrive in Providence at 6:31 (between 6:10 and 6:46 trains).

In regards to other trains stopping at Back Bay (i.e. Franklin Line, Needham Line Amtrak), they already list multiple trains stopping at Back Bay in the same direction at the same time, so I can't really work much with that.

In regards to demand, I don't think it makes sense to run the train any time but on weekdays close to rush hour, and at that time I think the demand would be huge. At a conservative 50mph, that is Providence to Back Bay in 51 minutes at rush hour. You would have a hard time matching that time driving - without traffic. The demand would be there at that time.

EDIT: spelling, as usual

 

[bigeman312]

Keep in mind, there's also a cost to available resources - that's one more train in a slot which can't be used by the Northeast Regional or the Acela Express and that's one less train assigned to the normal Providence/Stoughton Line. Now, while one more train is not going to make or break the corridor, I have trouble believing that an express to Providence is ever going to survive on the strength of a market that wants a 40-minute ride to Boston but DOESN'T want to spend an extra $4 on the Amtrak ticket ($14 versus $10) or $46 on the Amtrak monthly pass ($360 versus $314) because I just don't think that market exists, especially not when you consider that train is probably taking service away from people who would board it at Attleboro or Mansfield but can't because the new schedule expresses it through.

There are no northbound Amtrak trains that stop at Providence between 6:58 Am and 9:28 AM so people commuting to Boston from Providence during that time aren't going to take Amtrak.

On the other hand, the time I listed for the return leaves at the same time as a Northeast Regional, so scratch that. You're right. That wouldn't compete with Amtrak.

Revision: only the express train in the morning, at least until I find a better time for a return trip. Whoops.

 

[Riverside]

I'll take your word about the scheduling stuff.

But I'm afraid I'm still not convinced it would be worth it. For example, do you know which MBTA commuter rail station had the most daily boardings as of the MBTA's 2010 Blue Book?

Mansfield, with 3,763.

For comparison, here's the rest of the PVD line:

• 
  Providence- 1960
  South Attleboro - 2373
  Attleboro - 2417
  Mansfield - 3763
  Sharon - 2275
  Canton Junction - 1354
  Route 128 - 1516

Worcester got 954, Framingham had 1150, Stoughton had 1008, Norwood Central had 1040.

The only north side stations to break 1000 were Lowell (1412) and Anderson RTC (1239).

So it seems to me that while there certainly is going to be a market for PVD-BOS (especially in a few years when RIDOT gets their own trains going, with people transferring at PVD), there is just as much, if not more, of a market along the rest of the line. Expressing 2000 or 3000 riders from PVD versus picking up 13000+ riders along the way? And clogging up the already congested NEC by doing so? I dunno...

That said, a Lowell express sounds not bad to me. How much of the NH Main Line is double tracked? Compared to other major eastern Massachusetts cities, for its size, Lowell is pretty close to Boston.

 

[bigeman312]

I'll take your word about the scheduling stuff.

But I'm afraid I'm still not convinced it would be worth it. For example, do you know which MBTA commuter rail station had the most daily boardings as of the MBTA's 2010 Blue Book?

Mansfield, with 3,763.

For comparison, here's the rest of the PVD line:

• 
  Providence- 1960
  South Attleboro - 2373
  Attleboro - 2417
  Mansfield - 3763
  Sharon - 2275
  Canton Junction - 1354
  Route 128 - 1516

Worcester got 954, Framingham had 1150, Stoughton had 1008, Norwood Central had 1040.

The only north side stations to break 1000 were Lowell (1412) and Anderson RTC (1239).

So it seems to me that while there certainly is going to be a market for PVD-BOS (especially in a few years when RIDOT gets their own trains going, with people transferring at PVD), there is just as much, if not more, of a market along the rest of the line. Expressing 2000 or 3000 riders from PVD versus picking up 13000+ riders along the way? And clogging up the already congested NEC by doing so? I dunno...

That said, a Lowell express sounds not bad to me. How much of the NH Main Line is double tracked? Compared to other major eastern Massachusetts cities, for its size, Lowell is pretty close to Boston.

I am no longer convinced it would be worth it. Nice stats. I should have looked at the Blue Book. I am now questioning the viability of a Worcester express train. Worcester and Providence, with their high populations, I assumed would have the highest ridership, but behold the power of cheap parking.

I now think the Lowell express, if feasible, is the most viable of the three.

 

[Riverside]

I wouldn't write off Worcester yet, actually. Providence does "suffer" from real competition from Amtrak (ie. there are people who are willing to pay the extra to commute into Boston on Amtrak). PVD-BOS via Amtrak is 40-50 minutes, while via MBCR it's between 1h5m and 1h15m, depending on how many stops you make. So depending on the situation, the difference between PVD-BOS Amtrak and PVD-BOS MBCR could be as little as 15 minutes.

WOR-BOS, on the other hand, is 1h30m, if you express through Newton and Wellesley, and 1h45m (whoa!) if you do not. Going outbound, Amtrak does the trip in just over an hour. (Going inbound, it takes 50m just to go from WOR-FRA. Wtf? ) So here the difference is at least 30 minutes (assuming everything goes according to plan, too).

So conceivably an MBTA express might tap a market of commuters who have been doing the hour drive, not having time to waste most of an hour on the T.

If the train is late, an MBTA WOR-BOS run could conceivably take 2 hours. That's not going to be palatable for a lot of people. But if it's scheduled to just be an hour, and you don't have to sit in traffic... I think that might be a tipping point.

 

[Matthew]

I'm pretty sure Worcester ridership is depressed by the unusually slow performance of the Worcester line.

 

[Riverside]

^^ Looking at those travel times, I'd have to agree! So I guess the question is whether or not this express will attract any more riders...

It really is a shame that there's no real data (that I know of) on how many commuters get on at, say, Worcester, and get off before Boston, or before Auburndale. Because I could definitely see an argument for expressing almost all Worcester trains after Framingham, and just have Framingham locals cover those inner stops.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

I'm pretty sure Worcester ridership is depressed by the unusually slow performance of the Worcester line.

Dear god yes. 60 MPH speed limit, and the signal system to Framingham is unidirectional which means inbounds have to hold at Wellesley Farms if anything outbound is stopping at Yawkey-Auburndale. People would put up with getting lapped by cars on the Pike if the single-tracking and freight interference didn't put so many trains at a dead stop for 10 minutes at a time. This is why getting rid of 26 of 28 daily freight movements inside Framingham and wresting control of the dispatching is worth the high purchase cost from CSX. Now, if they would only get a move on rebuilding the Newton stops to double-track and resignaling to 80 MPH with blocks that allow more than 1 or 2 trains at a time inside 128.

It's kind of pathetic that the two shittiest-speed/shittiest-signaled/most delay-prone/most schedule-constrained lines on the system are Worcester and Lowell, the #1 and #3 biggest outbound cities (although Providence will always outslug Worcester on ridership) the T serves.

 

[Matthew]

Riverside, check out http://www.ctps.org/bostonmpo/4_resources/1_reports/1_studies/3_transit/mbta_passenger_survey.html

might be useful.

 

[Commuting Boston Student]

There are no northbound Amtrak trains that stop at Providence between 6:58 Am and 9:28 AM so people commuting to Boston from Providence during that time aren't going to take Amtrak.

On the other hand, the time I listed for the return leaves at the same time as a Northeast Regional, so scratch that. You're right. That wouldn't compete with Amtrak.

Revision: only the express train in the morning, at least until I find a better time for a return trip. Whoops.

You should see how crushed the 66 is coming out of PVD on weekday mornings, even though it's ostensibly the slowest (Amtrak) train on the line and must contend with a diesel engine and baggage car. (Despite these limitations, that train is great at beating its estimated arrival time - sometimes by 20 minutes or more.)

So it seems to me that while there certainly is going to be a market for PVD-BOS (especially in a few years when RIDOT gets their own trains going, with people transferring at PVD), there is just as much, if not more, of a market along the rest of the line. Expressing 2000 or 3000 riders from PVD versus picking up 13000+ riders along the way? And clogging up the already congested NEC by doing so? I dunno...

Here's what I come up with:
Amtrak Northeast Regional #66 from Washington DC to Boston South Station leaves at 6:58, estimated arrival 8:00 - 1 hour, 2 minutes. (Stops en route at Route 128 and Back Bay.)
MBTA Commuter Rail #808 from Wickford to Boston South Station leaves at 7:12, estimated arrival 8:16 - 1 hour, 4 minutes. (Stops en route at South Attleboro, Attleboro, Mansfield, and Back Bay.)
MBTA Commuter Rail #810 from Providence to Boston South Station leaves at 7:35, estimated arrival 8:51 - 1 hour, 16 minutes. (Stops en route at South Attleboro, Attleboro, Mansfield, Sharon, Canton Junction, Route 128, Hyde Park, and Back Bay.)
MBTA Commuter Rail #812 from Wickford to Boston South Station leaves at 8:20, estimated arrival 9:32 - 1 hour, 12 minutes. (Stops en route at South Attleboro, Attleboro, Mansfield, Sharon, Canton Junction, Route 128, Hyde Park, Ruggles and Back Bay.)
Amtrak Acela Express #2190 from Washington DC to Boston South Station leaves at 9:31, estimated arrival 10:25 - 54 minutes. (Stops en route at Route 128 and Back Bay.)
MBTA Commuter Rail #814 from Wickford to Boston South Station leaves at 9:45, estimated arrival 10:57 - 1 hour, 12 minutes. (Stops en route at South Attleboro, Attleboro, Mansfield, Sharon, Canton Junction, Route 128, Hyde Park, Ruggles and Back Bay.)
Amtrak Northeast Regional #190 from Washington DC to Boston South Station leaves at 10:14, estimated arrival 10:59 - 45 minutes. (Stops en route at Route 128 and Back Bay.)

Trains arriving at Route 128:
#66 at 7:36
#906 at 8:07 (31 minutes later)
#810 at 8:30 (21 minutes later)
#908 at 8:45 (15 minutes later)
#812 at 9:08 (23 minutes later)
#844 at 9:26 (18 minutes later)
#910 at 9:57 (31 minutes later)
#2190 at 10:03 (6 minutes later)
#814 at 10:33 (30 minutes later)
#190 at 10:43 (10 minutes later)

Trains arriving at Back Bay:
#708 at 7:54
#66 at 7:55 (1 minute later)
#604 at 8:09 (14 minutes later)
#808 at 8:11 (2 minutes later)
#906 at 8:27 (13 minutes later)
#732 at 8:35 (8 minutes later)
#606 at 8:37 (2 minutes later)
#810 at 8:46 (9 minutes later)
#908 at 8:58 (12 minutes later)
#608 at 9:08 (10 minutes later)
#734 at 9:20 (12 minutes later)
#812 at 9:27 (7 minutes later)
#844 at 9:44 (17 minutes later)
#712 at 10:03 (19 minutes later)
#610 at 10:11 (8 minutes later)
#910 at 10:12 (1 minute later)
#2190 at 10:19 (7 minutes later)
#814 at 10:52 (33 minutes later)
#190 at 10:54 (2 minutes later)

Train #844 is a weird Providence-line-that-starts-at-Attleboro-instead train. #600-series trains are Needham Line, #700-series Franklin Line, #900-series Stoughton Line. Back Bay is 3-tracks (technically 5, but Worcester Line platforms cannot be used by NEC trains) and all trains must stop there - up to two trains in one direction and one train in the other may be stopped in the station at any given time. Padding 'at one time' out to a 5 or even 10 minute window is reasonable, and that gives us a schedule hole where we could fit another train somewhere between #810-#908-#608-#734-#812-#844-#712.

Amtrak isn't using train designation #120, so hypothetical Northbound Regional Train #120 to Boston from New York Penn Station could slot nicely in there - no apparent schedule conflicts with Metro-North exist.

Such a train would leave NYP at 4:55 AM, arrive in NHV at 6:31 AM, arrive in PVD at 8:21 AM, RTE at 8:59 AM, BBY at 9:10 AM, and BOS at 9:15 AM, which looks pretty good to me - as I'm sure it does to anyone working a job in Boston with flexible enough hours to start at 9:30 or 10:00 am, or anyone commuting into Providence from Kingston (you'd be surprised) working a job that starts at 9:00.

Side Note: Amtrak should make monthly passes usable on Acela trains between Boston and Providence, or drop the fare from $34 to $26 - in line with a PVD-BOS business class Regional ticket.

 

[Riverside]

Riverside, check out http://www.ctps.org/bostonmpo/4_resources/1_reports/1_studies/3_transit/mbta_passenger_survey.html

might be useful.

Whoa. That is crazy. Soooooo much data. It's not precisely what was I was looking for; that diagram in the blue book of the central stations with all the arrows showing where people are coming from and going to is the sort of thing I would love to see. (Except for the commuter rail system.)

But still, you get a rough idea of the numbers. And looking through, it look like the vast majority of riders on the Worcester line are heading in to Boston.

With the tracks "liberated" from CSX, how practical would it be for the T to run one, maybe two rush hour locals on the B&A, and have the rest of the trains be split between Worcester expresses (Worcester-Grafton-Westborough-Southborough-Ashland-Framingham-Yawkey-BBY-BOS), and Framingham locals? Like the P508-P510 combo now, but more frequent (and with faster times from updated singling and double tracking), and with a timed transfer (ie. 5 minute wait) at Framingham.

You should see how crushed the 66 is coming out of PVD on weekday mornings, even though it's ostensibly the slowest (Amtrak) train on the line and must contend with a diesel engine and baggage car. (Despite these limitations, that train is great at beating its estimated arrival time - sometimes by 20 minutes or more.)

Here's what I come up with:
<snip>
Such a train would leave NYP at 4:55 AM, arrive in NHV at 6:31 AM, arrive in PVD at 8:21 AM, RTE at 8:59 AM, BBY at 9:10 AM, and BOS at 9:15 AM, which looks pretty good to me - as I'm sure it does to anyone working a job in Boston with flexible enough hours to start at 9:30 or 10:00 am, or anyone commuting into Providence from Kingston (you'd be surprised) working a job that starts at 9:00.

Side Note: Amtrak should make monthly passes usable on Acela trains between Boston and Providence, or drop the fare from $34 to $26 - in line with a PVD-BOS business class Regional ticket.

So is your thought for MBCR to add a PVD-RTE-BBY-BOS express leaving PVD at 8:21 and getting to BOS at 9:15? Or do you think it'd be better to fill that slot with such an Amtrak train?

Also, just throwing this out there... especially once RIDOT commuter rail gets going and you have South County folks transferring to MBCR at Providence, how much do you lose/gain by skipping RTE? Would you be able to make it much faster? Or are you limited by speed restrictions enough that you might as well stop?

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

Whoa. That is crazy. Soooooo much data. It's not precisely what was I was looking for; that diagram in the blue book of the central stations with all the arrows showing where people are coming from and going to is the sort of thing I would love to see. (Except for the commuter rail system.)

But still, you get a rough idea of the numbers. And looking through, it look like the vast majority of riders on the Worcester line are heading in to Boston.

With the tracks "liberated" from CSX, how practical would it be for the T to run one, maybe two rush hour locals on the B&A, and have the rest of the trains be split between Worcester expresses (Worcester-Grafton-Westborough-Southborough-Ashland-Framingham-Yawkey-BBY-BOS), and Framingham locals? Like the P508-P510 combo now, but more frequent (and with faster times from updated singling and double tracking), and with a timed transfer (ie. 5 minute wait) at Framingham.



So is your thought for MBCR to add a PVD-RTE-BBY-BOS express leaving PVD at 8:21 and getting to BOS at 9:15? Or do you think it'd be better to fill that slot with such an Amtrak train?

Also, just throwing this out there... especially once RIDOT commuter rail gets going and you have South County folks transferring to MBCR at Providence, how much do you lose/gain by skipping RTE? Would you be able to make it much faster? Or are you limited by speed restrictions enough that you might as well stop?

Might as well stop. From the curve at Canton Viaduct Jct. to 128 it isn't awesomely fast track, and the Stoughton line congestion is an issue. 128 to Forest Hills ought to be able to get a modest bump when they tri-track to Readville and quad from Readville to FH. The commuter rail interference, especially the Stoughtons and Franklins, is severe up there. Segregate by track and that can become 125 MPH territory. For not a lot of cost...the track berths are there, the catenary towers are already spaced for it, and the extra tracks don't have to be wired immediately if they're MBCR-segregated. Only moderately pricey piece is rebuilding Hyde Park outbound into an island platform between Tracks 3 & 4...the current platform sits on top of old Track 4 so a little reshuffling is required.

Amtrak is beginning 165 MPH Acela testing on some upgraded track in New Jersey very soon. East Junction (curve between Attleboro and S. Attleboro) to the curve at S. Main St, Sharon just south of the station is the single longest straightaway on the entire NEC at 15 miles and is currently 150 MPH. When they get Sharon ADA'd and Mansfield's platforms raised both of those stations are getting center passing tracks so the Acelas (and Regionals at Sharon) don't have to slow up around the platform. That is a cinch to become 165 MPH territory. And probably pretty soon. The only constraint there is that you can only go so fast when there's a slow-ass 80 MPH commuter rail diesel ahead of you, so the pressure is on when the new 93 MPH-rated locos and bi-level coaches are in-service to segregate the fast equipment to the Providence line. Which MBCR to-date hasn't given a shit about doing. It lets its deferred-maintenance coaches slip to ever more restricted speeds and sometimes mixes stuff that's been downrated to 60 MPH in consists on 80 MPH lines. Chances are...poor...they're going to give a shit about the Providence line.

Amtrak ultimately holds the cards because they dispatch the line, not the T. If the T is going to flip them off on running acceptable-speed equipment on the line, they're going to punish the T by withholding extra schedule slots. As they should if their partner is non-cooperating. There's a lot more money to be made with extra and faster Amtraks than extra Providence trains. And, hey, either way it's a willful choice by the T. They will have all the equipment they need by 2014 to do 90 MPH trains across the full Providence schedule. It doesn't cost them any more, and it's their bag if the extra revenue is worth engaging brain in the yard when assembling consists.

 

[Commuting Boston Student]

So is your thought for MBCR to add a PVD-RTE-BBY-BOS express leaving PVD at 8:21 and getting to BOS at 9:15? Or do you think it'd be better to fill that slot with such an Amtrak train?

Also, just throwing this out there... especially once RIDOT commuter rail gets going and you have South County folks transferring to MBCR at Providence, how much do you lose/gain by skipping RTE? Would you be able to make it much faster? Or are you limited by speed restrictions enough that you might as well stop?

F-Line gives better answers than I can re: Amtrak versus MBCR, but I do think it's much better to fill that slot with a Regional out of NYP, which - besides fitting nicely in the commuter rail hole I pointed out - also adds an early-morning regional between NYP, NRO (which neither the 66 nor the 190 stop at) and STM, STM and NHV, and bridges the nearly 4 hour gap between northbounds out of NLC and KIN (not counting the odd Acela which stops at NLC before PVD in the morning, even with that, it's 3.5 hours between NLC trains). I don't know about the situation south of New York, but there's significantly less benefit to trying to run out a red-eye train from WAS, which would have to leave in the ballpark of 1:20 AM ~ 1:35 AM to fit with the times I threw up for NYP onwards.

PVD is 4-tracked (plus a freight track that doesn't count to make 5), T.F. Green and Wickford Junction were both mercifully built out with passing capacity and Kingston is getting that capacity very soon now (construction set to begin early 2013), and I'm optimistic that all future infills (Pawtucket-Central Falls, East Greenwich, Cranston) will also be built to allow for passing trains. What this means is even if we can't 4-track the entire state (and T.F. Green to Providence is large enough to justify 4-tracking, but T.F. Green to Westerly most certainly is not), commuter rail trains can be held at any given station in anticipation of being passed by an Acela or a Regional. Most importantly, however, unless and until Pawtucket-Central Falls makes a mess of my very pretty and ordered spreadsheets, RIDOT trains and MBCR trains never have to interact with each other outside of a station with the capacity to have as many as four trains stopped at once. The relatively nasty approach curve makes it an all-trains-stop station anyway - icing on the cake.

Cut back all existing Providence Line trains to Providence, liberate the #8800 series designations being used on reverse commuter trains between PVD and Wickford right now, and schedule cross-platform transfers between Providence Line and RIDOT trains. Very simple, very easy.

Which is how you just know somebody is going to botch everything in some huge way.

 

[F-Line to Dudley]

F-Line gives better answers than I can re: Amtrak versus MBCR, but I do think it's much better to fill that slot with a Regional out of NYP, which - besides fitting nicely in the commuter rail hole I pointed out - also adds an early-morning regional between NYP, NRO (which neither the 66 nor the 190 stop at) and STM, STM and NHV, and bridges the nearly 4 hour gap between northbounds out of NLC and KIN (not counting the odd Acela which stops at NLC before PVD in the morning, even with that, it's 3.5 hours between NLC trains). I don't know about the situation south of New York, but there's significantly less benefit to trying to run out a red-eye train from WAS, which would have to leave in the ballpark of 1:20 AM ~ 1:35 AM to fit with the times I threw up for NYP onwards.

PVD is 4-tracked (plus a freight track that doesn't count to make 5), T.F. Green and Wickford Junction were both mercifully built out with passing capacity and Kingston is getting that capacity very soon now (construction set to begin early 2013), and I'm optimistic that all future infills (Pawtucket-Central Falls, East Greenwich, Cranston) will also be built to allow for passing trains. What this means is even if we can't 4-track the entire state (and T.F. Green to Providence is large enough to justify 4-tracking, but T.F. Green to Westerly most certainly is not), commuter rail trains can be held at any given station in anticipation of being passed by an Acela or a Regional. Most importantly, however, unless and until Pawtucket-Central Falls makes a mess of my very pretty and ordered spreadsheets, RIDOT trains and MBCR trains never have to interact with each other outside of a station with the capacity to have as many as four trains stopped at once. The relatively nasty approach curve makes it an all-trains-stop station anyway - icing on the cake.

Cut back all existing Providence Line trains to Providence, liberate the #8800 series designations being used on reverse commuter trains between PVD and Wickford right now, and schedule cross-platform transfers between Providence Line and RIDOT trains. Very simple, very easy.

Which is how you just know somebody is going to botch everything in some huge way.

Amtrak's NEC infrastructure plan (not the 2040 vision, but the state-of-good-repair plan) has track charts of everything that's planned: http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/870/270/Northeast-Corridor-Infrastructure-Master-Plan.pdf. p.79 of the PDF shows Boston-Westerly.

Every single station except Canton Jct. (which can't because of the Viaduct) is going to be at least 3-track. Including the eventual RIDOT infill stations at Pawtucket, Cranston, East Greenwich, and West Davisville. 128, Sharon, Mansfield, Kingston, and Westerly go from 2 to 3 tracks. And 128 has space to go as high as 5 with an additional track turnout if they wanted to send Fairmount trains there to turn back. South Attleboro goes from 2 to 4. Hyde Park, Readville, T.F. Green, and Wickford go from 3 to 4...plus additional platforms at Wickford and Green. Attleboro and Providence stay as-is because they're already 4 but Providence gets some additional crossovers for better flex in and out of the station. And they're poking the T with a stick to do something about the congestion at Ruggles, because the Needham and Stoughton clogs are starting to really piss Amtrak off.

Throw in the Sharon-Attleboro 165 MPH territory, the Forest Hills-128 125 MPH territory, 90 MPH commuter rail, high platforms so the T can finally use the automatic door coaches to lower dwell times, and segregating the Franklin and Stoughton slowpokes on the outer tracks and there's an assload more capacity opening up. This is why we need South Station expansion so badly. The Worcester and Fairmount increases are a drop in the bucket compared to the torrent that'll be coming in from the NEC by 2025.

 

[BostonUrbEx]

(Actually, they'd also be competing with Amtrak in the WOR-BOS market as well, so maybe I'm wrong.)

LOL, no way. That's laughable to say there's an "competition". I mean, I understand you don't know, but if you knew how horrid the Lake Shore Limited was, you'd be laughing too.

It runs once in each direction a day. And it so unreliable that I'd be downright shocked if anyone used it regularly as a ride from Worcester to Boston. Not to mention the not-so-convenient times it does make those runs. It's definitely a long-distance traveling train that Amtrak provides. In no way is it suitable for a commuter.