Teban54
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That's a great point! There are two ways of accounting for CR transfers:However, I feel like there's a glaring flaw with this analysis, which is that it entirely excludes CR transfers. On an average weekday in Fall 2024, ~6,800 passengers per day boarded the CR at Back Bay (And curiously, around 7,100 alighted.) I don't know how many of those passengers went and transferred to the OL or GL at Copley, but given that Back Bay isn't that strong of a employment node, it's probably a very significant chunk. If even half of those passengers are removed from Back Bay's subway ridership, since for the most part they don't care where they transfer to the Urban Ring, the disparity between BU+Longwood and Back Bay decreases. I will say however, this doesn't really touch the point about strong Back Bay-Cambridge demand.
- Use the 2015-17 Passenger Survey to get the number of subway riders at Back Bay, Copley and South Station who came from commuter rail.
- Use the 2018 Commuter Rail ridership counts to get total commuter rail ridership at these stations, then use the 2015-17 Passenger Survey to estimate the percentage of CR riders that transferred from rapid transit.
Station | Back Bay | Copley | South Station (RL only) |
Fall 2024 weekday ridership * | 10493 | 9955 | 15901 |
Fall 2019 weekday ridership * | 16727 | 13899 | 27214 |
(Method 1) Number of riders from CR, 2015-17 ** | 5358, 34.4% | 1050, 8.4% | 10170, 34.6% |
(Method 1) "Pure rapid transit" riders, Fall 2019 (Simple subtraction) | 11369 | 12849 | 17044 |
(Method 1) "Pure rapid transit" riders, Fall 2019 (Applies 2015-17 percentage to 2019 ridership) | 10977 | 12734 | 17792 |
(Method 1) "Pure rapid transit" riders, Fall 2024 (Applies 2015-17 percentage to 2024 ridership) | 6886 | 9121 | 10396 |
(Method 2) Total CR ridership, 2018 * | 8747 | N/A | 27530 |
(Method 2) Number of CR riders from subway, 2018 (see spoiler) | 3316 | N/A | 8377 |
(Method 2) "Pure rapid transit" riders, Fall 2019 (Simple subtraction of 2018 numbers) | 13411 | N/A (13899) | 18837 |
(Method 2) "Pure rapid transit" riders, Fall 2024 (Applies 2019 % of pure riders to 2024 ridership) | 8413 | N/A (9955) | 11006 |
** Percentages are computed as (CR transfers) / (accessing the station as first MBTA mode + bus/SL transfers + rapid transit transfers + CR transfers).
Completely excluding CR riders knocks down Back Bay's (and South Station's) rapid transit riderships by 20-40%, and Copley's ridership by less than 10%.
But this doesn't change the main conclusions from the earlier analysis:
- Each of Back Bay and Copley stations still has ridership several times higher than LMA. (The latter is ~2,400 between the three D/E branch stations.)
- Copley alone still has ridership comparable to Kendall, and the combined Copley-Back Bay ridership still surpasses Kendall.
If we're explicitly aiming for a low-cost, not-God-mode proposal, then I agree that Mass Ave surface LRT/BRT is the best compromise to meet Cambridge-Back Bay demand.And back to something I mentioned briefly in my previous comment, Mass Ave is right there. Light rail along the route of the 1 would go a long ways towards serving that Back Bay demand plus that Cambridge to Symphony demand that actually outpaces demand to LMA.
But if we broaden our scope to more aggressive, imaginative and costlier proposals, I'd argue that a direct route to Copley-Back Bay stations is the way to go:
- Better destinations: Hynes Convention Center is too far from the center of the Back Bay neighborhood. Likewise, Kendall (or even Tech Square) stations serve the main job destinations much better than Mass Ave (Central-MIT). You can even say that Symphony is not ideal.
- Reliability: A Mass Ave surface line will likely be too slow, and I'd wager that it's only capable of handling "local" demand. This makes it less attractive for replacing downtown transfers.
- Network effects: A Kendall-Back Bay line has much better Commuter Rail integration and relieves the Grand Junction line from many duties, in ways that a Mass Ave line doesn't.
- The key challenges for any Mass Ave surface route are dedicated transitways and (hopefully) signal priority. If you can tackle these, BRT and LRT can be equally reliable.
- More importantly, BRT has much greater flexibility for branching. The nature of Mass Ave -- many strong nodes that are offset from the corridor -- induces many plausible branches, which favor BRT over LRT:
- South: Back Bay (proper), LMA, Ruggles, Kenmore/BU, JFK/UMass or Andrew
- North: Harvard, Kendall, Union Sq Somerville, Western Ave/Lower Allston