I was just thinking about how I'd pay for the North South Rail Link... you know, like a normal person does on a Wednesday afternoon.
Aside from debating
Modern Monetary Theory, progressive taxation, or the merits of bond issues, I realized for better or worse, we live in a
PayGo fiscal mindset on infrastructure. That means any project worth a squirt has to pay for itself. Thank you,
Grover Norquist.
So I started thinking. The MBTA needs to build a big ol' tunnel, but if the MBTA does the tunnel right, they won't need the land on top of it, right? So, I flipped over an envelope and ran some REALLY rudimentary numbers.
The first biggie: Price per square foot in Boston. According to
this article, the whacked out number on top is $3,564/sq.ft. Since that number is in the Back Bay and not sane AT ALL, I'd put my industrial land closer to a really conservative $1100/sq.ft. I've seen a lot more number closer to that so I feel pretty safe. With me so far? Good.
Using ye olde Google Maps' area calculation feature, I scared up a few random state owned properties to see what might be on the table.
Big caveat: This is assuming we get everything on the NSRL Christmas List: Systemwide electrification, new EMUs and 4 grouped tunnels from North to South -- and a bunch of other stuff F-Line will use to poke holes in whatever I posit.
First up
1: North Station Staging area.
Approximate Square feet available: 318138.55
View attachment 15438
2: Trackage south of the Gilmore bridge.
Approximate Square feet available: 254908.61
If we have the tunnels, why do we need the layover tracks? Amirite?
View attachment 15439
3: Trackage north of the Gilmore bridge and 'flexible' property around the Northside Yard.
Approximate Square feet available: 182022.63
View attachment 15440
4: Trackage and property in and around the Southhampton Yard.
Approximate Square feet available: 808554.72
View attachment 15441
There are many more that candidates, but I thought I'd throw these out there for you all to do your own thinking on the subject. My formula is pretty basic, Half of the Sum of available land (I set aside 50% reserved for sidewalks, roads, pipes, parks and all that juicy general infrastructure) multiplied by the price per square foot.
Soooooo.... what have we learned, Dorothy?
North Station - square feet available: 318138.55
Gilmore South - square feet available: 254908.61
Gilmore North - square feet available: 182022.63
Southhampton Yard - square feet available: 808554.72
If you've read this far, you deserve the reveal:
Total square feet available: 1563624.51
1563624.51/2 = 781812.26
781812.26/2 x 1100 = 1,719,986,961 or
1.7 Billion asking - low ball
and if each of the buildings goes up 7 stories, that property will be worth 12,039,908,727 or
12 Billion. Taxable annually.
Thoughts?
Now I'm going to eat some fatty foods and watch me some TeeVee.