I was going to comment on
Transit Matters' Lowell Line report over in the NH Commuter Rail thread (
where there's some ongoing discussion), but realized that a fair amount of my thoughts are
not about NH Commuter Rail, and that's reflective of some of my overall sentiment.
I'm reminded of many of
my comments on their Eastern Route report from last year, particularly
my comments on electrification and my overall conclusion. I think a lot of what I said then still applies to this report:
TransitMatters is at their most effective when they lay out incremental proposals that build for the future, are readily achievable, and will have high immediate impact. (Consider the Lynn Zone 1A project, or near-hourly service to Lynn and to Brockton.)
From what I can tell, there are two primary downsides to deferred (or deprioritized) electrification:
1) Somewhat slower service due to slower acceleration
2) Less favorable emissions from the rail vehicles
However, diesel service is still perfectly compatible with almost all the other proposals and benefits outlined in this document:
1) Fare integration
2) Full high platforms
3) Double-tracking at Ipswich
4) Radically more frequent service
...
I'd like to see a workup of a potential timetable running diesel service at 30 minute headways. Too much of the report rests on the tacit assumption of electrification, which leaves it vulnerable to the misperception that none of these other benefits are possible without it.
Two further points about those downsides: first, for the majority of riders (i.e. those boarding from Beverly and south), the travel time difference is less than 10 minutes. Diesel keeps you from building all of those infills, true, but the case for those infills is much weaker than the present-and-urgent case for Fare-Integrated-Frequent-Service to Chelsea, River Works, Lynn, Salem, and Beverly. The service isn't that much slower.
Second, while it's true that electric trains would have fewer local emissions than diesel, I'd also want to see a workup of the overall net effect of frequent diesel, encompassing the subsequent direct reduction in auto emissions, and indirect reduction in auto emissions provided by increased local bus capacity. Particularly when multiplied out over the course of the years it would take to electrify the system, I think that benefit is non-trivial.
(Yes, the report advocates for an interim diesel service, but I think it understates the benefits of that service, and falls dangerously close to making the Perfect become the enemy of the Pretty Damn Good.)
To summarize: I think the report would be better served if it treated diesel as the default option, and articulated all of the benefits that can be achieved without electrification. Electrification could then be presented as an add-on, but avoiding the perception of "all-or-nothing."
I associate a number of folks at TM as being part of the "Organization before Electronics before Concrete" crowd. For example, I think they've demonstrated their success at pushing for Organization-level change in the midst of the pervasive slow zones on the subway. Just today,
they published a striking chart of Orange Line slow zones plotted against various external events:
And yet this report seems to lean very heavily on the Concrete side of things, without much regard for staged improvements in the spirit of the Organization > Electronics > Concrete model.
Like the Eastern Route report, the Lowell report bakes electrification into every dimension of the proposal, and leaves the impression that electrification is required to get all of the benefits outlined. And that's simply untrue. Moreover, the specific flavor of electrification that TM proposes requires the entire line to be electrified from Day 1, and gives no consideration to a interim plan that would intermingle longer-distance diesel and within-128 electric trains. Transit Matters really impressed me in their early years with their ruthless focus on pragmatic change, which I think continues in their rapid transit advocacy, but which is increasingly absent from these Regional Rail proposals.
In a similar vein, I think New Hampshire service would have been better either excluded, or relegated to an appendix. There are so many open questions about running the MBTA to New Hampshire, and what's worse, it's a completely separate political and advocacy ecosystem; lumping it in with the Lowell report muddies the waters for very little gain.
I know I'm being negative here, but it's frustrating: advocating for Regional Rail to Lowell should be a layup, an easy win. It has
so many things going forward, as they lay out on page 2:
The busiest station is Lowell (1,522 inbound riders), followed by the park-and-ride at Anderson/Woburn (1,196) and the penultimate stop at North Billerica (911). Frequent all-day service would greatly increase ridership both from the suburbs and the inner segments of the line. In particular, the dense, walkable neighborhoods surrounding West Medford and Winchester Center have high ridership potential. Better all-day service and small investments in better land use would also increase ridership at Mishawum, which only has a few dozen daily riders but has 6,900 jobs within half a mile. Only the suburban park-and-ride stations like Anderson/Woburn, would remain as peak-dominated as they are today, serving people who would otherwise drive to Downtown Boston at rush hour.
...
The line between North Station and Lowell is straight, fully double-tracked, and has a wide distance between stations, which allows for high speeds.
They understate the point about ridership, by the way -- Lowell and Anderson/Woburn are among the top 10 stations across the entire system, and North Billerica is comfortably in the top 20 (out of over 130 stations across the network). Screenshot from the 2014 Blue Book for illustration -- obviously the numbers have changed in the last decade, but not radically:
Those stations are prime targets.
And what's more:
Lowell is both Boston's largest satellite and one of its closest (if we treat Worcester and Springfield as their own hubs):
Journey times today are already on par with a Green Line journey from Riverside to Haymarket. And unlike Brockton to the south, Lowell is already set up to handle terminating trains, and isn't limited by capacity constraints like the Old Colony branches are.
The Lowell Line, maybe more so than any other line, could be transformative and truly make the Regional Rail concept sing,
without even requiring electrification, and potentially be both the least expensive and the most bang-for-buck. It doesn't require 100mph track speeds, and it doesn't require going three rounds with the legislature in Concord. We could easily see transformation via a laser focus solely on:
- Fixing the fare equity problem
- Fixing and raising the platforms
- Fixing the pedestrian access at Anderson and Mishawum
- Running the trains more often
Item 1 is an Organization problem. Items 2 and 3 are Concrete, but are focused and limited in scope. Item 4 is probably a combination of all three types, but probably can see meaningful progress by Organization-level work alone. To Transit Matters' credit, they talk about all of these items, and rightly so. I just hope going forward we can focus in on the pragmatic changes that we know will have immediate high impact.