Just to compare some elements for the two projects and why I don't think either is any less realistic than the other, here's a table. For the NSRL I'll be considering the quad-tracked central artery option because I think it's the most likely, partially due to politics reasons and the fact that the other alternatives completely exclude the Old Colony & Fairmount lines and would, as far as I can tell, basically not provide for Amtrak throughrunning whatsoever. I'll be comparing it to the "Phase 1" of an Urban Ring project that roughly follows the route of the 66 bus, the most popular crosstown route, and includes a full tunnel under Lower Allston rather than an elevated segment, which I think is possible.
Project Aspect | NSRL | Urban Ring (Subway Line version) |
# of Stations | 3 (North Station Under, "Central Station" (Aquarium), South Station Under | 10-12 (Harvard Stadium, Lower Allston, optional West Station, Harvard Ave, Coolidge Corner, Longwood Medical Area, MassArt/Wentworth, Ruggles, Nubian, BUMC, optional Widett Circle, Andrew) |
Size of Stations | Platforms ~800-850ft long, 4 tracks | Platforms ~ 275ft long, 2 tracks |
General complexity of project (Where is the tunnel, what do the portals look like, etc) |
- Fairly complicated junction on the northern end, I suspect that's the main cause of the $1bn "Portals" pricetag.
- Right under downtown ($$$)
|
- Potential train spaghetti at Widett Circle, but besides that it's a pretty straightforward route.
|
Length/type of Tunnel | ~3.5mi twin bore | ~4.5mi twin or single bore+1mi Nubian-Andrew mixed C&C/Surface/Elevated |
Given these project characteristics, while this is speculation, I do not believe the Urban ring would be the more expensive of the two projects. Even if the NSRL was done as cheaply as possible (2 tracks under Central single bore, I think the best that could be reasonably hoped for is price-competitiveness. So, assuming these projects cost a similar amount, which serves more people? I would say that without hesitation it's the urban ring. Unless we truly believe that as many people would ride between the Northern CR stations and Southern CR stations as currently ride the entire CR network, and that most of these people would not just be using the line for a 1 seat ride from their suburb to their destination in Boston, I don't think it's even close.