Regional Rail (RUR) & North-South Rail Link (NSRL)

So the NEC recently-ish NEC Commission Connect 2037 report (pdf warning) in November. Specifically relating to regional rail, they've included the following blurb.

1000017439.jpg


Their benchmarked Wickford/PVD-BOS travel times, which I assume came from MassDOT or the T itself, is exactly 10 minutes slower than transit matters estimate. I know that TM report was questionable as being overly rosy in its assumptions, but does 57 and 84 min sound realistic to folks as a target speed? Being in PVD in under an hour would definitely make it feel substantially closer.
 
So the NEC recently-ish NEC Commission Connect 2037 report (pdf warning) in November. Specifically relating to regional rail, they've included the following blurb.

View attachment 45576

Their benchmarked Wickford/PVD-BOS travel times, which I assume came from MassDOT or the T itself, is exactly 10 minutes slower than transit matters estimate. I know that TM report was questionable as being overly rosy in its assumptions, but does 57 and 84 min sound realistic to folks as a target speed? Being in PVD in under an hour would definitely make it feel substantially closer.
TMs numbers presume EMU service, not conventional push-pull
 
So the NEC recently-ish NEC Commission Connect 2037 report (pdf warning) in November. Specifically relating to regional rail, they've included the following blurb.

View attachment 45576

Their benchmarked Wickford/PVD-BOS travel times, which I assume came from MassDOT or the T itself, is exactly 10 minutes slower than transit matters estimate. I know that TM report was questionable as being overly rosy in its assumptions, but does 57 and 84 min sound realistic to folks as a target speed? Being in PVD in under an hour would definitely make it feel substantially closer.
TransitMatters specced buying very high-performance EMU's that would fit its 100 MPH Everywhere Systemwide manifesto/hill-to-die-on. That's a performance class higher than each of the EMU makes the T was bid in its own RFP, especially when it comes to 0-60 MPH takeoff acceleration where TM really wanted to push the physical limits to absurdity. Even stuff in domestic use on the NEC like the SEPTA Silverliner IV/V and NJ Transit Arrow can only top out at 100 with very wide stop spacing, so it's unlikely a Providence local schedule is going to reach triple digits at all or for more than inconsequential seconds between the widest-spaced stops.

In Rhode Island you also have the issue that the extra FRIP track the T uses is set at Class 4/79 MPH (I think...maybe even lower) and not Class 8/165 MPH like the Amtrak mainline, so there's currently a considerable speed differential that it would take a lot of money to even out with FRIP upgrades. And again, given stop spacing with a full buildout of RIDOT infill stations (Cranston , East Greenwich, West Davisville) you're not achieving triple-digit speeds anyway so it's hard to see where the FRIP track and any other non-AMTK station tracks are justifiable at more than Class 5/90 MPH.
 
TransitMatters specced buying very high-performance EMU's that would fit its 100 MPH Everywhere Systemwide manifesto/hill-to-die-on. That's a performance class higher than each of the EMU makes the T was bid in its own RFP, especially when it comes to 0-60 MPH takeoff acceleration where TM really wanted to push the physical limits to absurdity. Even stuff in domestic use on the NEC like the SEPTA Silverliner IV/V and NJ Transit Arrow can only top out at 100 with very wide stop spacing, so it's unlikely a Providence local schedule is going to reach triple digits at all or for more than inconsequential seconds between the widest-spaced stops.

In Rhode Island you also have the issue that the extra FRIP track the T uses is set at Class 4/79 MPH (I think...maybe even lower) and not Class 8/165 MPH like the Amtrak mainline, so there's currently a considerable speed differential that it would take a lot of money to even out with FRIP upgrades. And again, given stop spacing with a full buildout of RIDOT infill stations (Cranston , East Greenwich, West Davisville) you're not achieving triple-digit speeds anyway so it's hard to see where the FRIP track and any other non-AMTK station tracks are justifiable at more than Class 5/90 MPH.
Realistically, given acceleration limits and speed limits, what’s a good target future RR travel time from South Station to Providence and to Wickford?
 
Realistically, given acceleration limits and speed limits, what’s a good target future RR travel time from South Station to Providence and to Wickford?
I think what the NEC Commission slide says--57 minutes for Providence and 1:24 for Wickford--is realistic with the kind of EMU's the T was bid, because that's most likely sourced from data the T's own Rail Vision was working with on it's full-blown Regional Rail Alts. TransitMatters specced 46 minutes to PVD, but that was contingent on vehicle acceleration profiles that simply aren't available for import here and would cost more than the T could bear to pay. And it was also contingent on making the terminal district a 40-60 MPH sprint to the bumper post to slash down the SS-BBY trip times to a fraction. Those speeds are never ever happening under FRA auspices. 30 MPH might be doable through the South Station interlockings at 3x better than today's excruciating 10 MPH crawl, but faster than that through yard limits is not realistic.


It'll be several minutes slower if they end up adopting BEMU's, because most makes on the market de-power a set of bogies to fit in the bulky batteries resulting in much worse acceleration. So the difference between a straight-EMU and a battery-EMU adoption probably is the difference between making it to Providence in slightly under an hour vs. slightly over an hour. Hopefully they'll come to their senses there.
 
It'll be several minutes slower if they end up adopting BEMU's, because most makes on the market de-power a set of bogies to fit in the bulky batteries resulting in much worse acceleration. So the difference between a straight-EMU and a battery-EMU adoption probably is the difference between making it to Providence in slightly under an hour vs. slightly over an hour.
I really hope this means either the T has given up on the idea of BEMUs, or that the NEC Commission will force them to. But this may be wishful thinking.
 
I'd always imagined a world where the T would run some super expresses. Something like South Station, BB, 128 to Providence and TF Green, with perhaps one or two larger intermediate stops. If running this level of express, would it be possible to make it to TF Green in an hour or less? If so it would become pretty competitive transit wise to Logan as a secondary airport for a lot of people.
 
I'd always imagined a world where the T would run some super expresses. Something like South Station, BB, 128 to Providence and TF Green, with perhaps one or two larger intermediate stops. If running this level of express, would it be possible to make it to TF Green in an hour or less? If so it would become pretty competitive transit wise to Logan as a secondary airport for a lot of people.
I think the problem is limited capacity along NEC, where you need to overlay:
  • Your BOS-PVD super-express
  • BOS-Wickford local (where intermediate stations also have high ridership)
  • Increased Amtrak service (30 round trips a day)
  • SCR Phase 2
This seems... Very hard unless/until NEC is quad-tracked. Even without super expresses, the last 3 bullet points alone already force Franklin and Needham lines off NEC. It seems more practical to let Amtrak handle the role of BOS-PVD super-expresses,
 
I think the problem is limited capacity along NEC, where you need to overlay:
  • Your BOS-PVD super-express
  • BOS-Wickford local (where intermediate stations also have high ridership)
  • Increased Amtrak service (30 round trips a day)
  • SCR Phase 2
This seems... Very hard unless/until NEC is quad-tracked. Even without super expresses, the last 3 bullet points alone already force Franklin and Needham lines off NEC. It seems more practical to let Amtrak handle the role of BOS-PVD super-expresses,
Yeah there is Amtrak, especially if they finally add TF Green as a stop. Mainly just think regionally TF Green is the one relief valve for Logan crowding, and I know if I could make it there in under an hour via the train with a terminal shuttle connector I'd be pretty interested in it as an option over Logan - which is usually 20-30 minute drive (or Uber) in, but over an hour on the T.
 
Yeah there is Amtrak, especially if they finally add TF Green as a stop. Mainly just think regionally TF Green is the one relief valve for Logan crowding, and I know if I could make it there in under an hour via the train with a terminal shuttle connector I'd be pretty interested in it as an option over Logan - which is usually 20-30 minute drive (or Uber) in, but over an hour on the T.
Worcester Airport is about 3.5 miles from a potential station site, and most of the route is an underutilized 4 lane 45mph boulevard
 
I think what the NEC Commission slide says--57 minutes for Providence and 1:24 for Wickford--is realistic with the kind of EMU's the T was bid, because that's most likely sourced from data the T's own Rail Vision was working with on it's full-blown Regional Rail Alts. TransitMatters specced 46 minutes to PVD, but that was contingent on vehicle acceleration profiles that simply aren't available for import here and would cost more than the T could bear to pay. And it was also contingent on making the terminal district a 40-60 MPH sprint to the bumper post to slash down the SS-BBY trip times to a fraction. Those speeds are never ever happening under FRA auspices. 30 MPH might be doable through the South Station interlockings at 3x better than today's excruciating 10 MPH crawl, but faster than that through yard limits is not realistic.


It'll be several minutes slower if they end up adopting BEMU's, because most makes on the market de-power a set of bogies to fit in the bulky batteries resulting in much worse acceleration. So the difference between a straight-EMU and a battery-EMU adoption probably is the difference between making it to Providence in slightly under an hour vs. slightly over an hour. Hopefully they'll come to their senses there.
TM profiles based on Stadler FLIRT. I'm unclear as to why the T could not buy them
 
I think the problem is limited capacity along NEC, where you need to overlay:
  • Your BOS-PVD super-express
  • BOS-Wickford local (where intermediate stations also have high ridership)
  • Increased Amtrak service (30 round trips a day)
  • SCR Phase 2
This seems... Very hard unless/until NEC is quad-tracked. Even without super expresses, the last 3 bullet points alone already force Franklin and Needham lines off NEC. It seems more practical to let Amtrak handle the role of BOS-PVD super-expresses,
You also have the problem of the T's low motivation for running an express on this line. Mansfield, Attleboro, and South Attleboro are Blue Book Top 10'ers on ridership. Sharon and Canton are in the Top 25. That's a ton of revenue tied up in the MA intermediate stops. And they have to share the revenue pot with RIDOT on Providence and T.F. Green, so the impact here is much more muted with slots contoured to out-of-state stops near-exclusively. Really, if an express is desired it's RIDOT that needs to step up to the plate by upping its subsidy generously, because that's just too much revenue loss for the T to be skipping any of those in-state intermediates. I know the RI Governor has moaned about there not being expresses, but that didn't come with any "...and we're here to help with that" funding promises...they just wanted MA to run expresses on their own generosity. That's not going to work. The Providence Line probably makes the T money with its in-state ridership, and that's a fact that needs to be reconciled before you consider passing up any of those stops.
 
TM profiles based on Stadler FLIRT. I'm unclear as to why the T could not buy them
Stadler didn't bid an off-shelf FLIRT import for the T's EMU RFP. It bid the Caltrain FrankenKISS only, to help recoup some of the overcustomization losses for that West Coast boondoggle. The industry doesn't trust U.S. transit agencies to manage procurements responsibly, and responds with a bear market on the actual bids. That bear market and the inherent mistrust the industry has of the U.S. has been covered extensively by the transpo blogosphere, and it's not necessarily the T's fault because their debut EMU RFP is so colored by bad experiences builders have had with other irresponsible agencies.

Ultimately, the Rail Vision can only work with specs on the makes they were bid. They were bid slim pickings.


EDIT: The FLIRT has no makes in its entire product family that board at 48-inch full-high platforms. It's entirely a low- (8-inch) and mid- (up to 29-inch) height platform make. So why would TM ever want to base its performance specs on a vehicle that is totally inapplicable to anywhere on any NEC member's system???

EDIT 2: It's the intercity variant of the FLIRT that has the brawniest acceleration profile in Stadler's product catalog. The commuter variants accelerate about half as fast, not much different from the commuter makes that the T was bid in its RFP (like the Silverliner V, which can reach 100 MPH in the absolute but only get to that point relatively slowly on-the-clock). So again...premium-class $$$ on the procurement to net TM's desired performance profile, something the T cannot afford. Can't afford even if the manufacturer were to come up with a variant (which they have so far declined to bid) that can square the U.S. East Coast's platform height. With a cost of considerable rider discomfort when commuter seating/livery and standee areas are applied to the maximum G-forces exerted by intercity-class propulsion. This is a basic, basic flaw in all of TM's "Extreme Train Sim" traffic modeling across the system.
 
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I think the problem is limited capacity along NEC, where you need to overlay:
  • Your BOS-PVD super-express
  • BOS-Wickford local (where intermediate stations also have high ridership)
  • Increased Amtrak service (30 round trips a day)
  • SCR Phase 2
This seems... Very hard unless/until NEC is quad-tracked. Even without super expresses, the last 3 bullet points alone already force Franklin and Needham lines off NEC. It seems more practical to let Amtrak handle the role of BOS-PVD super-expresses,

What do you estimate is possible under a theoretical future where South Station Expansion is complete, Providence-Boston Traction Power Upgrades are complete, the third track from Readville to Canton is complete, South Attleboro is rebuilt, Ruggles and Back Bay improvement projects are complete, the Cove and Tower 1 Interlocking projects are complete, but the rest of the line remains mostly unchanged between TF Green and South Station?

Thanks for any insight.
 
What do you estimate is possible under a theoretical future where South Station Expansion is complete, Providence-Boston Traction Power Upgrades are complete, the third track from Readville to Canton is complete, South Attleboro is rebuilt, Ruggles and Back Bay improvement projects are complete, the Cove and Tower 1 Interlocking projects are complete, but the rest of the line remains mostly unchanged between TF Green and South Station?

Thanks for any insight.
I'm the wrong person to ask when it comes to regional rail operations, lol. Perhaps the question is better suited for @F-Line to Dudley ?
 
The track/platform layout at TF Green Airport is not ideal for MBTA trains to terminate, but in terms of ridership/demand/travel time, my opinion is that MBTA trains should terminate at TF Green and South County commuter rail + TF Green express service should be handled by Amtrak trains -- probably in part through Northeast Regionals and in part through some sort of reboot of the Beacon Hill.
 
What do you estimate is possible under a theoretical future where South Station Expansion is complete, Providence-Boston Traction Power Upgrades are complete, the third track from Readville to Canton is complete, South Attleboro is rebuilt, Ruggles and Back Bay improvement projects are complete, the Cove and Tower 1 Interlocking projects are complete, but the rest of the line remains mostly unchanged between TF Green and South Station?

Thanks for any insight.

:30 bi-directional Purple Line locals to Providence + all manner of Amtrak improvements are possible with the power upgrades, Readville-Canton third track, level boarding upgrades at the stations, and Tower 1/Cove. SSX depends on Regional Rail rollout to other southside lines; you can probably fit the Phase I Providence+Stoughton+Fairmount RER *extremely* snugly in the current setup, but the difficulties mount from there.

For fitting regular Purple Line express patterns...I think that runs headfirst into the need to boot Needham and Forge Park off the NEC. Mainline slots to Forest Hills and Readville get very, very tough to come by once you're pairing alternating :30 Providence/Stoughton slots with Amtrak growth.


You also have work to do in RI to expand past-Providence service any. T.F. Green needs an opposite-side platform on a 4th track and a wide-turnout gauntlet track on the current track so it can be electrified (i.e. so P&W autoracks can slip by 'between' the wires, since there isn't enough clearance under the bridges to do Plate F+ freights under wire). Wickford would need electrification of its platform track. Plus probably the new Cranston, East Greenwich, West Davisville intermediates before demand justifies a significant upsizing of Wickford schedules. The 2010 NEC Infrastructure Improvements Master Plan document has track charts and platform configurations for all of the completed south-of-PVD stations.
...but in terms of ridership/demand/travel time, my opinion is that MBTA trains should terminate at TF Green and South County commuter rail + TF Green express service should be handled by Amtrak trains -- probably in part through Northeast Regionals and in part through some sort of reboot of the Beacon Hill.
RIDOT has already settled how they're going to do that: contract the T for mercenary ops. They're proposing a mid-line layover yard at Davisville to feed service expansion, and a layer cake Woonsocket, Westerly, and Boston services overlapping in the middle around the 295 belt. An Amtrak job would have to be staffed out of New Haven, and would not achieve the 295-belt frequency overlap that a Purple Line-based service would entail.
 
Quick question unrelated to current discussion: do any of the plans for the NSRL include utilizing it as a backup for any of the subway lines during maintenance/upgrades?
 
Stadler didn't bid an off-shelf FLIRT import for the T's EMU RFP. It bid the Caltrain FrankenKISS only, to help recoup some of the overcustomization losses for that West Coast boondoggle. The industry doesn't trust U.S. transit agencies to manage procurements responsibly, and responds with a bear market on the actual bids. That bear market and the inherent mistrust the industry has of the U.S. has been covered extensively by the transpo blogosphere, and it's not necessarily the T's fault because their debut EMU RFP is so colored by bad experiences builders have had with other irresponsible agencies.

Ultimately, the Rail Vision can only work with specs on the makes they were bid. They were bid slim pickings.


EDIT: The FLIRT has no makes in its entire product family that board at 48-inch full-high platforms. It's entirely a low- (8-inch) and mid- (up to 29-inch) height platform make. So why would TM ever want to base its performance specs on a vehicle that is totally inapplicable to anywhere on any NEC member's system???

EDIT 2: It's the intercity variant of the FLIRT that has the brawniest acceleration profile in Stadler's product catalog. The commuter variants accelerate about half as fast, not much different from the commuter makes that the T was bid in its RFP (like the Silverliner V, which can reach 100 MPH in the absolute but only get to that point relatively slowly on-the-clock). So again...premium-class $$$ on the procurement to net TM's desired performance profile, something the T cannot afford. Can't afford even if the manufacturer were to come up with a variant (which they have so far declined to bid) that can square the U.S. East Coast's platform height. With a cost of considerable rider discomfort when commuter seating/livery and standee areas are applied to the maximum G-forces exerted by intercity-class propulsion. This is a basic, basic flaw in all of TM's "Extreme Train Sim" traffic modeling across the system.
Stadler wasn't offering FLIRTs because the T has made it clear that they are still in Bilevelland. Ask for flats and you will get flats.
And the premium for top performance is not that significant
 
Stadler wasn't offering FLIRTs because the T has made it clear that they are still in Bilevelland. Ask for flats and you will get flats.
And the premium for top performance is not that significant
The T got 3 single-level bids and 3 bi-level bids in the RFP. There was no bi-level requirement.

Rotem offered 2 completely different makes in its bid package. What was stopping Stadler from doing the same? They would've had a superior shot if they covered the bases on either/or single- or bi-level EMU's. They explicitly chose not to bid anything in their catalog other than the sunk-cost Caltrain FrankenKISSes...not even an un-gunked vanilla KISS.
 
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