How will $21 billion be funded? There is minimal federal money available, and the state has nothing as well. Even if every expressway inside I-95/route 128 were tolled it wouldn't be enough revenue.
The affordable improvements should be given top priority instead of this pipe dream. Build the Blue Line to Charles Station, and some other affordable transit projects.
The report is in "2028 dollars." They decided to use an absurd inflation rate that we haven't seen in decades. Also, when discussing cost, they never mention the cost in relation to the SSX alternative. So, I'll do a break-down here:
But it's not going to be built in 2018, it's going to be built in 2028 (or whenever). So the cost in 2028 is what matters.
Therefore, what this report is actually showing is that the North-South Rail Link will cost $5.4b more than the SSX alternative in 2018 dollars.
The report states the numbers in a way that purposefully makes it sound more expensive than it is. They could have said "the North-South Rail Link will cost $5.4b more than the SSX alternative" as that IS what they found.
mmm.... the point is that when comparing different options it's essential to use same-year dollars.
i.e. Its not about whether the 2028 or the 2018 cost is the 'right one' - if you have a good estimate of inflation, they should be the same amount of 'real money'.
what its really about is not claiming that one option is more expensive than another because one uses future inflated figures and one uses present figures
TransitMatters will be responding to the NSRL feasibility study. We believe there are significant flaws and cost inflations. I will post here when we publish our piece.
But it's not going to be built in 2018, it's going to be built in 2028 (or whenever). So the cost in 2028 is what matters.
The bottom line number really should be the $8.6 Billion number... which isn't all that unreasonable either way. I think if that got closer to $5 Billion it would be a no brainer to do. Even at 8.6 Billion it is arguable, especially if you drop SSX.
I cant support spending money on this when they can't even fund the existing system to a decent level.
Weekends have like 3-hour headways,
But it's not going to be built in 2018, it's going to be built in 2028 (or whenever). So the cost in 2028 is what matters.
You make a good point that there are many ways to compare inflation adjusted numbers, each with a different interpretation. Importantly however, the thing isn't built in any one year, so you HAVE to adjust the costs from various years to a single year.
The primary reason to compare in "today's dollars" is because we know what real value "today's dollars" represents. The 2 quantities "$5.4B in 2018" and "$7.6B in 2028" represent the same amount of value/stuff/wealth/whatever. Factually, they are completely interchangeable, but there is a very important psychological difference.
Since lay people naturally think "in today's dollars," it is quite disingenuous to talk about future dollars. It is a tactic with no purpose other than to deceive ordinary people who aren't accustomed to the mental gymnastics of adjusting for inflation.
The bottom line number really should be the $8.6 Billion number... which isn't all that unreasonable either way. I think if that got closer to $5 Billion it would be a no brainer to do. Even at 8.6 Billion it is arguable, especially if you drop SSX.