Regional Rail (RUR) & North-South Rail Link (NSRL)

Re: North-South Rail Link

Connecting North and South train stations in Boston by underground tunnel would come at a Big Dig-level cost of at least $12 billion, going possibly as high as $21.5 billion, state officials said Monday.

The Massachusetts Department of Transportation on Monday previewed the findings of a study about the North-South Rail Link, a long-debated proposal to plug a major gap in the regional rail system.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/20...h-much-more/2fPHFwksqID2qTtsGadXaI/story.html
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

Just to be that guy: $14B in 1996 has the same buying power as $23B in 2018.

So a more accurate headline for this study would be "could cost less than half as much as the Big Dig."

EDIT: Just took a look at the presentation, an the $23B is in 2028 dollars, not 2018 dollars. So it's probably analogous to <$10B in 1996 dollars at the high end.
 
Last edited:
Re: North-South Rail Link

That's not being "that guy".

That's just making a really good point.
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

That's not being "that guy".

That's just making a really good point.


NSRL Cost Estimation: https://cdn.mbta.com/sites/default/f...ssessment.pptx

Other quick reactions:

- Very surprised that they looked at non-Central Artery alignment, including one with platforms at PO Square. (n.b. one of the alignments assumes 51-foot diameter TBM going directly under some very large buildings between Dewey and PO squares, which seems...aggressive)

- Cost estimates also include pretty extensive 'upstream' improvements, including among other things double-tracking the Salem tunnel (but not old colony two-tracking; all alignments assume old colony continuing to terminate on the surface (!))

- They assume that a deep South Station / Dorchster Ave. station would be a cut-and-cover job, presumably because it would also be the TBM launch pit

- Includes dual-mode traction with electrification out to the first stop on each of the north side lines

- Headline numbers include infrastructure cost only; no consideration given increased throughput and productive (and thus greater opex leverage) due to through-running. There are a couple of slide in the appendix that outline OpEx modeling, and it seems that whatever they have done is based on current schedules and timing and doesn't include full impact of non-revenue moves etc. (I'm pretty sure this means that have excluded a major value driver from the math here.)

Also: I'd be willing to pay a small but meaningful amount of money to read what F-line thinks of this work.
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

"Including financing costs" is always deliberately misleading by people trying to make something sound expensive. You can't just add up the bills paid in different years. You have to calculate net present value on the cash flows of those financing costs to get them all in one year and then adjust by inflation to get to the year you want to make a comparison. Of all people on this forum, stellar, you seem to have a good grip on how financing works should know better than to spread disinformation.

Using a familiar example, 360 times your monthly mortgage payment is not the "full cost" of your mortgage, no matter how many cheap websites do such shoddy math. Adjusting each payment for inflation, you find the true cost is ALWAYS less than that lazy math. If inflation is higher than your interest rate over the loan term, having the mortgage actually saves you money, even though the payments add up to more than the loan amount. Banks let morons keep repeating this falsehood because banks make more money when people pay off their loans early.

Ok cool.

The NSRL study doesn't include financing, so to be apples-to-apples I think the ~$14B 1996 dollars figure for the BD is probably a good anchor point.

Agreed.
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

After a very quick glance, the only financially feasible option seems to be two track, no new station, with Rockport / Newburyport trains continuing to Framingham / Worcester to take advantage of commutes to offices at Back Bay, near future Beacon yards station, and Allston (Boston Landing). Assuming Suffolk Downs is primarily office development, I'd also build a new CR stop at Railroad St. in Revere.
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

GLOBE said:
North-South Rail Link would cost $12 billion, maybe much, much more

omg. what a shame.

looks like a lot of pain ahead for Boston infrastructure, flood gate/s etc.....
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

omg. what a shame.

looks like a lot of pain ahead for Boston infrastructure, flood gate/s etc.....

I think it is time to take a look at North West Rail link... as-in North Station to West Station tunnel link.
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

You guys have intelligent solutions that i'll ever begin to possess. Interesting you mention it... i had put down in the Globe the pain of not having the Blue Line from Lynn, under Back Bay to West Station. Amazon at Suffolk Downs seems so much more feasible with a fully built Blue Line.

i'm totally obliterated by that cost estimate for the N/S rail link.
 
Last edited:
Re: North-South Rail Link

TransitMatters will be responding to the NSRL feasibility study. We believe there are significant flaws and cost inflations. I will post here when we publish our piece.
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

fattony, digging (no pun) further,

Construction costs of the Big Dig itself were $14.5 Billion.

The state financed $7 billion of this amount through bonds, the interest on the $7 billion borrowed is about $7 billion, so these apparently are mostly 40 year bonds.

The additional $3 billion in Big Dig costs are transportation-related, e.g., Silver Line, Blue Line, etc. The construction cost for these was $1.7 billion, paid for with bonds costing $1.6 billion in interest.

The $24.3 billion does not include the cost of the Green Line extension.
https://www.boston.com/uncategorize...-24-billion-with-interest-officials-determine

Forty year bonds at a fixed 4.25 percent would get you to a point where the interest amount roughly equals the principal.

But that oversimplifies because I doubt the Commonwealth has $7 billion worth of paper all maturing in 2038; there is probably a series of bonds with different 20, 30, and 40 year maturity dates, the last of which is 2038.

From an investor standpoint, lending $x million for 40 years and applying anything but a relatively low discount rate will probably result in negative NPV for the investor.

From my quick read, the financing costs of new construction (tunnels and trackage) and new equipment costs are not included in the most recent cost estimates.

Back to the Big Dig only, the cost to the state only was about $7 billion in construction costs. The Federal printing press paid for the remainder of the construction costs.

On that basis, my eyeball sense is the construction and equipment cost (no financing) to the state for NSRL probably exceeds the inflation-adjusted construction only, state-paid-for Big Dig costs, (after adjusting for inflation between 1996 and 2028).
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

NSRL Cost Estimation: https://cdn.mbta.com/sites/default/f...ssessment.pptx

Also: I'd be willing to pay a small but meaningful amount of money to read what F-line thinks of this work.

41075202370_0507ce25c2_b.jpg


41075202070_3eee69312d_b.jpg


41075201890_27b380320f_b.jpg


41075201600_79c3966aa0_b.jpg


41075201380_a9bbe268e8_b.jpg


41075201150_ce9590eeb9_b.jpg


41075200870_ddf01a5358_b.jpg


41075200500_7a6dd5f32a_b.jpg


41075200440_b5d00d8d82_b.jpg


41075200410_e5e370469a_b.jpg


41075200390_22ff1b691c_b.jpg


41075200320_459d0dfb84_b.jpg


41075200230_eb276141df_b.jpg


41075200200_06182198d1_b.jpg


41075200100_429a062866_b.jpg


28016381707_06182198d1_b.jpg


41075199940_0320d2194a_b.jpg


41075199850_35454d30d2_b.jpg


28016381507_1466847c0a_b.jpg


41075199710_39ccd6c01c_b.jpg


41075199650_2bcd9f9853_b.jpg


41075199550_50d2c0d48f_b.jpg


28016381127_d1c7e23974_b.jpg


41075199370_ea649760a1_b.jpg


41075199280_9e1755a2a6_b.jpg


41075199240_ec9d16cea4_b.jpg


28016381007_5ca7390894_b.jpg


41075199040_81534388ed_b.jpg


41075199000_247383c595_b.jpg
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

I'll take a closer look later on, but for now I'll just add that in order to make this cost estimate apples-apples with the bg dig, you'd need to increase the big dig cost number to include:

- cost of additional personal vehicles (and/or depreciation) required to support the expected increase in I-93/I-90 automobile traffic volume
- cost of 'upstream' improvements to support additional traffic, include 128 widening and woburn interchange improvements & Logan 2000 work
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

Does anyone else the cost for electrification is absurdly high? Including the tunnel itself, they're proposing electrifying <20 miles, yet they're saying electrification will cost >$450 million (>$22 million per mile).
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

Does anyone else the cost for electrification is absurdly high? Including the tunnel itself, they're proposing electrifying <20 miles, yet they're saying electrification will cost >$450 million (>$22 million per mile).
Electrification of the CR route from San Francisco to San Jose etc, a distance of 51 miles, is costing $700 million. But that is all surface work, and no movable bridges.
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

Does anyone else the cost for electrification is absurdly high? Including the tunnel itself, they're proposing electrifying <20 miles, yet they're saying electrification will cost >$450 million (>$22 million per mile).

Sorry, but something smells fishy in all this. Baker has been quite clear he doesn't want this and clearly favors a South Station Expansion.

There's no more transparent way to kill it than to have his people put out a report such as this .

I'm surprised more people haven't seen it for what it is.

.
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

Electrification of the CR route from San Francisco to San Jose etc, a distance of 51 miles, is costing $700 million. But that is all surface work, and no movable bridges.

Considering that the Pearl/Congress route has the cheapest electrification cost, but involves a second tunnel, it doesn't seem like they're saying that the cost of electrifying the tunnels is a huge concern. Also there aren't any movable bridges on the corridors they're proposing to electrify.
 
Re: North-South Rail Link

Sorry, but something smells fishy in all this. Baker has been quite clear he doesn't want this and clearly favors a South Station Expansion.

There's no more transparent way to kill it than to have his people put out a report such as this .

I'm surprised more people haven't seen it for what it is.

.

Don't worry, this is exactly how I saw it. Plenty of others did too. The presentation was specifically curated to boost the pointless SSX and kill NSRL. Thankfully, Joe Aiello was not falling for it.
 

Back
Top