South Boston Infill and Small Developments

^ BeeLine, great documentation of the incredible amount of infill happening in Southie.

Does anyone have a rough unit count on how many new residential units are being created? This has to be a pretty significant contribution to new housing in the city.
 
Someone should tell Odurandia to check out Southie -- the Odurandia-hoped-for / called-for upscaling and upsizing in happening -- the expected population growth of Boston can be easily accommodated through these kinds of projects
 
JeffDowntown said:
^ BeeLine, great documentation of the incredible amount of infill happening in Southie.

Does anyone have a rough unit count on how many new residential units are being created? This has to be a pretty significant contribution to new housing in the city.
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I'm keeping a running tally of all proposed, permitted, u/c, and completed large projects for my job (i.e. projects with 10+ units). By my count there are more than 30,000 new units from large projects proposed, permitted, or u/c in the City of Boston alone to be completed within the next 5 to 7 years. Unfortunately, small infill projects like Southies' are harder to track; however, there's definitely a large # of them happening across the city.

Even if we made a conservative estimate of 5,000 new small, infill units over the same 5-7 year time period--and assuming a statistically-supported average household size of 2.1 people--Boston could be growing by more than 70,000 people by the year 2021... which is kind of remarkable.
 
dshoost88 said:
I'm keeping a running tally of all proposed, permitted, u/c, and completed large projects for my job (i.e. projects with 10+ units). By my count there are more than 30,000 new units from large projects proposed, permitted, or u/c in the City of Boston alone to be completed within the next 5 to 7 years. Unfortunately, small infill projects like Southies' are harder to track; however, there's definitely a large # of them happening across the city.

Even if we made a conservative estimate of 5,000 new small, infill units over the same 5-7 year time period--and assuming a statistically-supported average household size of 2.1 people--Boston could be growing by more than 70,000 people by the year 2021... which is kind of remarkable.
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dshoost -- Obviously that kind of population growth in such a short period is not likely -- so somewhere there is a flaw in the logic chain

Either:
  • a lot of people are redistributing from dense configuration of multi-generational and extended family homes shared with aunts and uncles to more singular residences,
  • the majority of the units are pure speculative developments
  • or there is a huge flow of suburbanites inward as the kids leave and people retire

there is of course some actual population growth as well
 
I don't think anyone is suggesting that is from raw population increase the population of Boston could increase by that much but not from births it would be from migration/immigration. That has been how almost all population changes in New England have occurred for the past 20-30 years the overall population would have declined or been stagnant without in migration of any type. Regardless though the population could grow by 70,000.
 
+70,000 over 5 years is only a 2% annual growth rate. That isn't exactly a breakneck pace. Seems quite healthy actually.
 
fattony said:
+70,000 over 5 years is only a 2% annual growth rate. That isn't exactly a breakneck pace. Seems quite healthy actually.
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It is healthy growth from a supply standpoint. Obviously the region will have to play catch up connecting the dots with improved T service, water & sewer upgrades, etc. But this kind of growth in inventory sustained over a long enough period will have noticeably positive impacts on housing affordability throughout the city.
 
whighlander said:
dshoost -- Obviously that kind of population growth in such a short period is not likely
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The 2015 US Census estimates for Boston's population are 667,137; that is up nearly 50,000 people from Boston's 2010 decennial census population of 617,594. We have more development in the pipeline for the upcoming 5-7 years than we did in the previous 5 years.

So it stands to reason that--if the estimates and unit counts hold steady--that kind of population growth is possible (and likely).
 
dshoost88 said:
The 2015 US Census estimates for Boston's population are 667,137; that is up nearly 50,000 people from Boston's 2010 decennial census population of 617,594. We have more development in the pipeline for the upcoming 5-7 years than we did in the previous 5 years.

So it stands to reason that--if the estimates and unit counts hold steady--that kind of population growth is possible (and likely).
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dshoost -- No one is saying that the population of Boston [City] couldn't grow by 70,000 in 5 years -- just that its very unlikely based on past behavior

here are the fastest growth periods for Boston [decadal changes]
Year City Outside Metro Boston% Bos share Growth%
1920 748,060 1,724,019 2,472,079 30.3% 25.6%
1910 670,585 1,499,038 2,169,623 30.9% 29.7%
1900 560,862 1,238,805 1,799,667 31.2% 30.2%
1890 448,477 979,115 1,427,592 31.4% 27.9%
1880 362,839 757,978 1,120,817 32.4% 51.0%
1870 250,526 650,280 900,806 27.8% 48.0%
1860 177,840
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Year City Outside Metro Boston% Bos share Growth%
2000 589,141 3,412,611 4,001,752 14.7% 6.8%
1990 574,283 3,209,534 3,783,817 15.2% 9.4%
1980 562,944
Click to expand...
in recent years after the low point growth has been substantially less
yr pop delta% over previous
2000 589,141 +2.6%
2010 617,594 +4.8%
2015 667,137 +8.0%
Click to expand...
 
To gain 70,000 people by 2020 Boston would have to grow slower than it did in the previous five years which is highly unlikely as others have already stated. Even if it grew at the rate you show in 2000 it would reach that number and if it continues the current rate it will surpass that number. What are you seeing that has you convinced otherwise?
 
citylover94 said:
To gain 70,000 people by 2020 Boston would have to grow slower than it did in the previous five years which is highly unlikely as others have already stated. Even if it grew at the rate you show in 2000 it would reach that number and if it continues the current rate it will surpass that number. What are you seeing that has you convinced otherwise?
Click to expand...

Citylover -- perhaps we are using different definitions

If Boston grew by about 50,000 between 2010 {census} and 2015 [estimate] -- it seems that to grow by 70,000 between 2015{estimate} and 2020 [Census] that the already fast by historic standards growth rate needs to accelerate

2020 Boston Growth Model
T == yr by decadal census year except for 2015 estimate
P == Census count or 3025 census estimate
del P == difference between the population in given year and previous census [exept for delP involving 2015 data
%delP == 100*(delP/P) [of previous census data]


T P delP delT %p
1980 562,944 0 0 0.0
1990 574,283 11,339 10 2.0
2000 589,141 14,858 10 2.6
2010 617,594 28,453 10 4.8

Estimate 2015 667,137 49,543 5 8.0

constant % growth 2020 720,654 103,060 10 16.7 53517.30812
70k scenario 2020 737,137 119,543 10 19.4 70000

the two scenarios for growth through 2020 are:
  • keep constant growth over next 5 years
    results in 16.7% growth since 2010
  • add 70,000 to 2015 estimate
    results in 19.4% growth since 2010 and a rate of 10.5% since the 2015 estimate

Note that either scenario is a rate pf growth well in excess of any historic rate [since WWII]

We will just have to wait and see -- these would put Boston in the same growth category as cities such as Portland Or or Seattle WA
 
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