The Alcott (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

KentXie said:
For everyone that still believes that building luxury condos/apartments would eventually lower the price of housing for the lower-middle class, this is exactly why it will never happen. Developers would rather sit and wait until the market rebounds than to build more affordable housing. The city needs to put more emphasis on affordable housing.
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Honest question:
What about luxury encroachment outward from the city core into historically non-luxury areas? For example, Somerville in this past cycle...crappy triple deckers being turned into multiple $900,000 luxury condos...

If it were easier for developers to build luxe towers downtown, wouldn't that slow the luxury encroachment outward? Wouldn't there be less of a market for a crappy $900k triple-decker conversion?
And as a result, wouldn't the supply of middle-class priced housing further from the core but still within commuting distance be more price-stable as opposed to rapidly escalating?

I think we gotta think of Boston as a larger ecosystem that just luxe/affordable within the core.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

The great 8-20 story and infill boom has greatly improved the City. But those really exciting, tall projects, not so much. The nimby's can rejoice how we lead the world in tearing each other's hair out over tall buildings that almost never get built. ...The nimby's kicked the yimby's ass 51-10.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

odurandina said:
The great 8-20 story and infill boom has greatly improved the City. But those really exciting, tall projects, not so much. The nimby's can rejoice how we lead the world in tearing each other's hair out over tall buildings that almost never get built. ...The nimby's kicked the yimby's ass 51-10.
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Um not really. Lots of construction going up around the city.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

bigpicture7 said:
Honest question:
What about luxury encroachment outward from the city core into historically non-luxury areas? For example, Somerville in this past cycle...crappy triple deckers being turned into multiple $900,000 luxury condos...

If it were easier for developers to build luxe towers downtown, wouldn't that slow the luxury encroachment outward? Wouldn't there be less of a market for a crappy $900k triple-decker conversion?
And as a result, wouldn't the supply of middle-class priced housing further from the core but still within commuting distance be more price-stable as opposed to rapidly escalating?

I think we gotta think of Boston as a larger ecosystem that just luxe/affordable within the core.
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The thing is, it isn't easy to build luxury towers in downtown especially in Boston where developers are normally restricted to a reputable few. The access to the tower market is very restricted. To circumvent it, smaller developers and real estate owners get onto the luxury condo/apartment wave by upgrading their existing stock, slapping amenities on them, and calling them luxury. This, by the way, reduces the supply of middle-class priced housing. In addition, conversion is a less risky venture than building a large tower. There's a smaller sunk and variable cost to it making it more attractive to small developers that doesn't have a diverse real estate portfolio that can buffer it in case the local housing market tanks.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

KentXie said:
The thing is, it isn't easy to build luxury towers in downtown especially in Boston where developers are normally restricted to a reputable few. The access to the tower market is very restricted. To circumvent it, smaller developers and real estate owners get onto the luxury condo/apartment wave by upgrading their existing stock, slapping amenities on them, and calling them luxury. This, by the way, reduces the supply of middle-class priced housing. In addition, conversion is a less risky venture than building a large tower. There's a smaller sunk and variable cost to it making it more attractive to small developers that doesn't have a diverse real estate portfolio that can buffer it in case the local housing market tanks.
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Kent, that's kind of my whole hypothesis...

The fact that it's very hard to build towers downtown does reduce the supply of middle class housing outward in the metro boston ecosystem.

But I say this fully agreeing with you & Data about how, within the core, building versus not building a given tower does almost nothing to change affordable housing supply in the core - I am in complete agreement there.

I do, however, believe that if there were a substantial supply of luxury residences in the downtown core, there would be less of an impetus for people to turn triple-deckers into overpriced faux-luxe condos out where many of the communiting-worker-families are actually living (or trying to live) -- this is not the same effect as providing housing for the poor within city limits, but it is the effect related to when a tech worker earning $100k says "my family and I can't afford a house in reasonable commuting distance to Boston"

So for this reason I don't mind if Boston totally saturates the downtown luxury condo supply side of the market....because it will only serve to reduce the small-gamers' motivation to do luxe condo conversions further and further outboard of the core (next up: medford!...everett!...etc!)
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

^^Nicely done. i think there's plenty of room for a fusion of both opinions.
i've been making the argument of a 'trickle up effect' of supply in the Globe for a couple of years. But your opinion is kryptonite to the point of view that there is little or no positive effect of at least a slightly-better supply of more affordable living space.

People converting triple-deckers to luxury residences is kind of in your face.

Allow people of higher means more choices to either live in brownstones, or in a highrise, and that process inevitably slows.

Supply is supply. City Hall is very enthusiastic, holding close the opinion that Downtown highrises add significant new sources of revenue for the City. Economics suggests most of these will eventually get done.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

bigpicture7 said:
Kent, that's kind of my whole hypothesis...

The fact that it's very hard to build towers downtown does reduce the supply of middle class housing outward in the metro boston ecosystem.

But I say this fully agreeing with you & Data about how, within the core, building versus not building a given tower does almost nothing to change affordable housing supply in the core - I am in complete agreement there.

I do, however, believe that if there were a substantial supply of luxury residences in the downtown core, there would be less of an impetus for people to turn triple-deckers into overpriced faux-luxe condos out where many of the communiting-worker-families are actually living (or trying to live) -- this is not the same effect as providing housing for the poor within city limits, but it is the effect related to when a tech worker earning $100k says "my family and I can't afford a house in reasonable commuting distance to Boston"

So for this reason I don't mind if Boston totally saturates the downtown luxury condo supply side of the market....because it will only serve to reduce the small-gamers' motivation to do luxe condo conversions further and further outboard of the core (next up: medford!...everett!...etc!)
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Sorry I misread that. That being said, if the above scenario occurs, I do believe the conversion of affordable housing to faux luxury condos will slow. Of course, it will change when the market rebounds again, which it will at one point because developers aren't going to keep building luxury towers to the point that the market can't rebound, but the duration of those spikes in housing price would be shorter than what we see today. However, the city would still need to increase the supply of lower-middle income housing to drive down the price which isn't happening (or isn't happening enough).
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

^^No mystery. It will take people letting planners do their job: not just more luxury highrises, and mid-rise infill, but everything–including allowing proposed BHA projects to move ahead much faster as proposed–instead of opposing them. Those projects will dramatically increase supply for multiple pricing levels on existing parcels It will take a lot of cooperation by neighborhoods if we ever hope to close the deficit.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

KentXie said:
Sorry I misread that. That being said, if the above scenario occurs, I do believe the conversion of affordable housing to faux luxury condos will slow. Of course, it will change when the market rebounds again, which it will at one point because developers aren't going to keep building luxury towers to the point that the market can't rebound, but the duration of those spikes in housing price would be shorter than what we see today. However, the city would still need to increase the supply of lower-middle income housing to drive down the price which isn't happening (or isn't happening enough).
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I think the key word there is "slow." So the best realistic scenario, if you follow this line of reasoning and allow a ton of core luxury-building, is that outlying regions will become somewhat less unaffordable for people who aren't well-off. And meanwhile people will continue to be pushed out of the city, or out of the area entirely.

I think it's pretty clear that there is no market-only solution to making housing affordable in Boston. The market is always going to serve first the people who need it least. And then, when the market shifts toward tenants and small home owners, construction will slow until there's another shift back toward the luxury market.

So I think it's also pretty clear that the only solution to this housing crisis (and that's what it is), is a combination of easing market restrictions and heavy government subsidization for affordable housing.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

KentXie said:
Sorry I misread that. That being said, if the above scenario occurs, I do believe the conversion of affordable housing to faux luxury condos will slow. Of course, it will change when the market rebounds again, which it will at one point because developers aren't going to keep building luxury towers to the point that the market can't rebound, but the duration of those spikes in housing price would be shorter than what we see today. However, the city would still need to increase the supply of lower-middle income housing to drive down the price which isn't happening (or isn't happening enough).
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A silver-bullet / single-approach policy is rarely what's best : )
Society and the economy are too complicated for that.

I agree...we need balance. The particular sub-phenomenon I called attention to was certainly not meant as me saying we should give up on requiring developers to build affordable housing/ provide offsets. I'm just saying that there's multiple intertwined effects going on.

EDIT:
This! (came in as I was typing):

GW said:
...So I think it's also pretty clear that the only solution to this housing crisis... is a combination...
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Indeed, need to avoid the trap of single-causality thinking
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

odurandina said:
^^Those projects will dramatically increase supply for multiple pricing levels on existing parcels–instead of opposing them.
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Do you have any figures to back that up?
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

^^2 of the 3; (we don't have the exact numbers for the South End yet) right?

One Charlestown/BHA/Bunker Hill total project; 3,200 units, 3.3M sq ft,
incl dozens of row houses and 100,000 sq ft of civic and retail space.

BHA/McCormack Housing Complex Redo/Old Colony Ave/South Boston 3,200~3,500 units on 27 acres.

existing X 3~3.5 with w/ no net loss of BHA units.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

odurandina said:
^^2 of the 3; (we don't have the exact numbers for the South End yet) right?

One Charlestown/BHA/Bunker Hill total project; 3,200 units, 3.3M sq ft,
incl dozens of row houses and 100,000 sq ft of civic and retail space.

BHA/McCormack Housing Complex Redo/Old Colony Ave/South Boston 3,200~3,500 units on 27 acres.

existing X 3~3.5 with w/ no net loss of BHA units.
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That very good but they're still only adding market rate housing and those projects are going to take years to complete. Boston's population is increasing rapidly and this isn't enough: adding more market rate when the city is seeing an influx of upper-middle class and wealthy residents isn't going to make the city more affordable, just less unaffordable than it would otherwise be.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

All I have seen is that they are slowing down a bit on their development of this site, not that they are pausing indefinitely. It could also have as much to do with the performance of their current as well as future portfolio rather than Boston going ice cold.
Boston is hot. If the Serenity can bang people out for $3500 for a 1 br on South Huntington, Boston is not cooling off.
Also, when a developer switches from apartments to condos, in my mind it is a good thing because rental apartments usually have a lower level of quality (appliances, etc.) vs. condos. They may see an opportunity for condos given the performance of MP and The Pierce.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

Too bad about the delay .. esp. concerning since Equity owns that land already! Even with the cost of tearing down the garage, what does it mean that they think it's too expensive / not the right time to go forward?
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

Could it be more construction costs right now vs. the market? Think about all the large projects we have going on-there just might not be enough labor to go around right now for these large projects.

The hub, seaport square, wynn, Boston landing, congress st garage, pier 4, pierce and the hallo, m1m2 parcels, GE, ink block--the list goes on.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

John asked precisely the question that's been on everyone's mind. And it appears you've answered it. The permitting is down considerably this year from last year. But there's still big projects starting up. And things are still ramped up in Cambridge, Somerville, Malden, Revere, etc.

Hopefully, the economics and the availability of construction crews will soon meet. This thing is probably somewhere near the middle between Avalon Nashua St and Harborfaro Tower.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

palindrome said:
Could it be more construction costs right now vs. the market? Think about all the large projects we have going on-there just might not be enough labor to go around right now for these large projects.

The hub, seaport square, wynn, Boston landing, congress st garage, pier 4, pierce and the hallo, m1m2 parcels, GE, ink block--the list goes on.
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It's also a function of timing the opening, right? They may have slowed down so they don't come online too close after Boston Properties at the Garden and HYM's Govt. Center Garage tower. Boston may be hot, but it'd be hard for anyplace to support that much new high-end product, that close together, all at once.
 
Re: Longfellow Place (née Garden Garage Towers) | 35 Lomasney Way | West End

Man about town said:
Boston may be hot, but it'd be hard for anyplace to support that much new high-end product, that close together, all at once.
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I would honestly agree with you if not for the fact that literally 85%+ of new luxury units across the city are being leased within one year of opening at all buildings. For example,
Benjamin's ~400 units only opened this month and it was already 40% leased two weeks ago. And a quick browse of Avalon North Station shows 140 units (of 503 total units) being marked for availability; however, with 70 of those coming on for 9/1 or later, it's likely those ones are occupied and being turned over. So with ~70 unleased units as of writing, that means even Avalon North Station--the largest building by volume of units opened in the last year--is more than 86% leased... a VERY healthy number for a 9-month old building.

Like HYM's recent announcement, I wonder if Equity is reconsidering a conversion of Longfellow Place to condominium units... there is DEFINITELY a market for them. But such a change requires a complete reassessment of the developers' pro forma and disclosure to financing partners. In either case, I cannot envision a scenario where Equity doesn't see a market for luxury housing.
 
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