http://mbta.com/uploadedfiles/About... 2012 Fare and Service - RecommendationV2.pdf
Looking at the PowerPoint, these are the ones that don't pass the smell test:
-- Citing one-man Red Line operation as staff reducer. This was proved bunk when Orange did it last year. Carmen's Union nullifies this. All staff reduced off trains work the same shifts as roving inspectors. Permanent reductions from doing OPTO 7 days a week including rush hour has in real-world terms meant mass promotions for a number of excess operators to become better-paid inspectors. Which ends up COSTING more money. While in theory this ought to allow them to reduce headcount, THEY CAN'T DO IT WITH THESE SUFFOCATING UNION CONTRACTS. So they bleed more money. Legislature!...this is your charge! Structural reform or the staffing flab just gets worse.
-- "Projected savings in MBCR contract." WTF does that mean for 2012-2013 when the contract doesn't expire until 2014??? Does this mean they're promising to not look the other way while MBCR bilks the contract for extra incentives, or are actually going to start fining them for doing a shit job with maintenance and on-time performance? Oh yeah, real golf-clap there. I totally expect that inside ball to be played totally voluntarily honestly now...8 years into that disaster of a contract. Borderline insulting to list this in the plan.
-- Ridership increases. I think no weekend service on 3 CR lines, a ferry, 5 E stops, and reduced runs elsewhere is going to add up to >$1.8M in FY2012 revenue reductions, so that line item is a wash. You can't base it on service levels today unless you expect that growth to outstrip the cuts (which calls into question the rationale for the $0/zilch/nada savers like the E).
-- Gas/electricity/jet fuel. This is flukey-warm winter savings...the jet fuel is the giveaway there because the beastly rail snowblowers are the only equipment requiring those. Electricity = above-ground 3rd rail, switch, and Blue Line trip-arm heaters that operated well under-load this winter. Gas = snowblowers. Much like Patrick's somewhat sad cure-all of scraping the MassHighway snow plow surplus and transferring it over, it's not sound fiscal strategy to bank on Mother Nature to get you out of debt. Who cares if next winter in 9 months away. Remember the tornadoes...the flooding rains...the unprecedented number of downed trees during warm months last year? Heat waves...delay-city on continuous welded rail with the heat kinks that surface and require the track gangs to be ready on a moment's notice to fix one. You guys really gonna bank on fluffy fair-weather clouds and balmy winter begetting cool summer as your path to FY2012 salvation? Folly. Don't ever wager against New England weather.
-- Commuter rail extra work and CSX. OK...I'm not real sure what both have to do with each other. Cutting back extra work = deferred maintenance.
FAIL. Proceed immediately to the principal's office for detention...today's assignment will be a book report on the D'Alessandro Report. And CSX track workers belong to the same exact unions the MBTA's do...because BOTH railroads' union contracts descended from the same original private RR (Penn Central/NYNH&H). Outsourcing to them saves nothing over their own internal track gangs. And the Haverhill and Fitchburg projects are stimulus-tied and time-limited per the terms of the stimulus, so they don't have the option to go any molasses-slower than they already are.
-- The RIDE, one of the biggest money pits needing intensive structural reform, gets no service reductions or basic fare increase and only a surcharge for far-flung commutes on the district fringes. That's not a lifesaver when the city is the densest coverage. Legislature...outside help, please.
I still don't see a list of the bus routes, and as I noted in previous posts the Route 128 construction that rips the living shit out of the Needham stretch and accelerates during off-peak is a short-term blocker that may well force them to pull that service reduction off the table. And that's not going to go over well with Rozzie and West Rox. What else can they substitute? Not Fairmount...that craps all over an even bigger urban minority community during a time when the line was supposed to be expanding. Not Rockport/Newburyport...there's money in those towns. And beaches. The other 7 mainlines + Stoughton Branch have too much ridership. I would also argue that running the Hingham ferry on weekends instead of a very limited-schedule Greenbush probably cancels out a lot of the supposed savings here.
Sorry...there's not a panacea here. Especially when they're dumb about shortening off-peak consists. 1 conductor per 2 cars @ 5 open cars = 3 conductors on a light-use train. They would be able to do this if they capped every weekend train at 4 cars and assigned the bi-level coaches to the hilt on Providence, Worcester, etc. to keep the high-ridership lines lean on staff. But they DON'T do that. I watch the Fitchburg go by on the other side of Danehy Park several times a day when I'm out and about...Sunday consists are usually 5 (very empty) cars. Everything's all locked in and cookie-cuttered. They don't save if they don't mind the ops efficiency at BET, and they won't give a crap about ops efficiency until somebody slaps them. This is MBCR, remember! This problem ain't going away until there's structural reform on the labor contracts, incentive to mind their P's and Q's, and an operator who's not got a singular goal of bilking the contract for all the extras they can wring.
Seriously...the inefficiencies that add up blunt most of the supposed savings from closing the lines. Nothing anywhere near as egregious as the $0 E kneecapping, but I'm thoroughly unconvinced that they're going to recover what that PPT says they will with the chronic overstaffing on weekend trains and the operator's track record for honest business practices.