Winthrop Center | 115 Winthrop Square | Financial District

[George_Apley]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

"Do you think Dubai is a better city than Boston because it builds tall? Boston doesn't need to be like that. Boston should strive to be more like cities X, Y, and Z........ Oh, so it turns out cities X, Y, and Z are either currently building skyscrapers, recently completed them, or both? Well, that is all completely irrelevant. Boston should strive to be more like cities X, Y, and Z were in 1910."

-75% of the forumers here

What is this strawman argument? No one is arguing that we shouldn't build up. Please, build! We're responding the the hand-wringing over 10-stories being taken off a 60 story tower, and comments making it sound like Boston's future is in the pit because our skyline is "stale" or "dated."

 

[statler]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

To clarify my position. I have no problem with a tower here or over at the Congress St garage because the urban fabric has already been destroyed in these spots. Whatever gets built here will be as good or an improvement.
I would, however, wring my hands, clutch my pearls and twist my panties in the biggest goddamn knot if we were talking about razing a pre-war block to build these things.

 

[DZH22]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

What is this strawman argument? No one is arguing that we shouldn't build up. Please, build! We're responding the the hand-wringing over 10-stories being taken off a 60 story tower, and comments making it sound like Boston's future is in the pit because our skyline is "stale" or "dated."

The skyline is stale/dated right now, and there are plenty of people who jump down the throat of me and anybody else who mentions this. They call me a height-mongerer. They say we should be more like specific cities, while ignoring what those cities are doing NOW. This happens consistently in every thread.

"Let's be more like San Francisco. Oh wait, San Francisco recently completed 2 buildings over 640', and is currently constructing a ton between 300'-500', and has a supertall on the way? Doesn't matter, that's not what I meant by more like San Francisco."

"Let's be more like Paris. Oh, so Paris just finished off a 500'+ and 700'+ tower, and is currently building another 500' and 600', and has multiple supertalls on deck? That's not the part of Paris I was talking about."

"Philly is a great city. Oh, so they also happened to recently build a new tallest, and have built 4 buildings taller than the Hancock since 1985? Doesn't matter, those have nothing to do with Philly being a great city."

The skyscrapers are not what make these cities great, but it doesn't mean they aren't building them. They are. It's 2013 and this is what is happening in the rest of the world. Point out a city (any city) that we should emulate, and I'll point out that the same city is building up. The only real straw man argument is saying "we don't need to be like Dubai." The worldwide construction boom is not isolated to the new fake cities.

We should get some nice new things in Boston too. Just like the rest of the cities we are "emulating."

 

[DZH22]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

To clarify my position. I have no problem with a tower here or over at the Congress St garage because the urban fabric has already been destroyed in these spots. Whatever gets built here will be as good or an improvement.
I would, however, wring my hands, clutch my pearls and twist my panties in the biggest goddamn knot if we were talking about razing a pre-war block to build these things.

Yes, we should get towers here, because these are the spots to build them. These aren't the spots to cave into the whims of NIMBY's who are living a mile away, especially when they don't even need the zoning variances for the extra height that constantly gets lopped off. (Congress St)

 

[prodigy92]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

The skyline is stale/dated right now, and there are plenty of people who jump down the throat of me and anybody else who mentions this. They call me a height-mongerer. They say we should be more like specific cities, while ignoring what those cities are doing NOW. This happens consistently in every thread.

"Let's be more like San Francisco. Oh wait, San Francisco recently completed 2 buildings over 640', and is currently constructing a ton between 300'-500', and has a supertall on the way? Doesn't matter, that's not what I meant by more like San Francisco."

"Let's be more like Paris. Oh, so Paris just finished off a 500'+ and 700'+ tower, and is currently building another 500' and 600', and has multiple supertalls on deck? That's not the part of Paris I was talking about."

"Philly is a great city. Oh, so they also happened to recently build a new tallest, and have built 4 buildings taller than the Hancock since 1985? Doesn't matter, those have nothing to do with Philly being a great city."

The skyscrapers are not what make these cities great, but it doesn't mean they aren't building them. They are. It's 2013 and this is what is happening in the rest of the world. Point out a city (any city) that we should emulate, and I'll point out that the same city is building up. The only real straw man argument is saying "we don't need to be like Dubai." The worldwide construction boom is not isolated to the new fake cities.

We should get some nice new things in Boston too. Just like the rest of the cities we are "emulating."

Exactly, things need get done here in Boston. As for Dubai, its newcomer anyways and there trying to build a futuristic/fantasy mega city.

 

[kmp1284]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

Again, time has changed. Stay stagnant, and you're left behind. Adapt, as London has, and the city will stay in the forefront.

Except that ten of the sixteen largest banks operating in the UK maintain their headquarters in areas other than Canary Wharf. Except that rents in central London range between £60 and £110 per square foot while Canary Wharf averages about £40. Except that Central London has vacancy rates in the 4's and Canary Wharf is in the 8's. Except that despite the modernity of Canary Wharf nearly all of the major banks located there maintain offices in Mayfair, the West End and the City to service high-value clients who refuse to trek all the way out there. All of London's super rich neighborhoods - Chelsea, Knightsbridge, Kensington, Belgravia, St. John's Wood along with the more run of the mill rich areas like Pimlico, Marylebone, Fitrovia and Bloomsbury and the lower upper class areas like Fulham, Parsons Green, Islington and Hammersmith are all located west and north of the City and Mayfair and all come with a significantly longer commute to the Docklands and Canary Wharf. I'm not in any way shitting on Canary Wharf. It's an amazing development but you're letting the glitzy new, tall buildings cloud your reality.

Serious question, how many times have you been to London and I don't mean for a week as a tourist?

 

[DZH22]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

It's an amazing development but you're letting the glitzy new, tall buildings cloud your reality.

The vast majority of the glitzy new, tall buildings are being built outside Canary Wharf, in The City and basically all over the place. (although CW does have some big projects in the near-future pipeline) London is building up in nodes, and it's expected to have 3-4 major skyline areas within the next few years. (it looks both bizarre and spectacular)

You make good arguments for why we should get more height/density around our subway nodes. Kendall in particular should build some tall residential towers on the smaller footprints to jam as many people in there as they can. (studies say the area is running out of space)

Height makes sense in most areas where the density already exists, and there is a premium for space. It gets more residential/office space into more convenient areas.

 

[stellarfun]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

DZH22, who would you expect would occupy these new office towers in Boston that you call for? Are there any specific companies or businesses that you have in mind?

It doesn't help that RBS and Santander are in such sorry shape that they won't be looking for a glitzy US HQ in Boston for their group banks here.

And one can't keep on building residential towers without residents of same having jobs in the city.

 

[DZH22]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

Stellar, they don't have to be straight up office towers. They can (and should) be mixed use. We complain about the financial district being dead at night, so let's get more people in there. It has helped the Chinatown/Theater District area. I no longer hear the term "combat zone" thrown around, for starters.

Also, our office space is getting pretty outdated. These towers from start to finish take forever to build. Probably a solid 5 years. If we can't find tenants within 5 years then the city is not doing as well as we thought. But, if a developer is willing to shoulder that risk, then why prevent them from doing so?

But really, back to residential. Let's just build more of that. This is one of the most unaffordable cities to live in the country, and rents keep skyrocketing. The vacancy rates are almost nonexistent. Extra height generates more profits and tax revenue (particularly from those highest floors) which allows 2 things to happen: first, higher quality building materials and less value engineering (improved aesthetics) and second, more money that can be spent improving the area around the buildings (without having to resort to the VE).

What if we got some 300-400' residential towers in Kendall and around Northpoint. Think about how much those top penthouses would go for! Unobstructed views = big $$$ = more property tax revenue!!!

We don't need to just throw up supertalls nilly willy here. The main point is we shouldn't be so quick to accept when developers are forced to reduce their plans because it's still "better than what's there", nor should we act as obstructionists when it doesn't involve destroying part of the existing urban fabric. Maybe it won't bite us in the ass this year, or next year, or even in the next 5-10, but eventually all of these little compromises are going to catch up to Boston and the city will be worse off because of it.

 

[jdrinboston]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

Extra height generates more profits and tax revenue (particularly from those highest floors) which allows 2 things to happen: first, higher quality building materials and less value engineering (improved aesthetics) and second, more money that can be spent improving the area around the buildings (without having to resort to the VE).

Extra height also equals more cost. Deeper footings, more steel, more facades, bigger crains etc. One of the reasons most of our new residential is in the 270' to 315' range is because that has generally become the "sweet spot," by which developers can be reasonably sure the cost of the building will mesh with what they can eventually charge for rent. Also, why would you assume the materials on a taller building would be better? If there are - as you indicated - more profits, why wouldn't developers just increase their margin, pocket the money, and use the same crappy materials?

 

[stellarfun]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

DZH22, nobody builds office towers on spec.

If Boston could attract foreigners like Miami does, then you would have a market for residential towers, without much need for jobs for the condo residents. About 75 percent of condo sales in Miami are all cash, and 90 percent of foreign buyers pay all cash. So about two thirds of the Miami condo buyers are foreigners.

 

[tobyjug]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

Correction: if we could attract affluent foreigners.

 

[FenwayResident]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

DZH22, nobody builds office towers on spec.

If Boston could attract foreigners like Miami does, then you would have a market for residential towers, without much need for jobs for the condo residents. About 75 percent of condo sales in Miami are all cash, and 90 percent of foreign buyers pay all cash. So about two thirds of the Miami condo buyers are foreigners.

Your logic is wrong here, you can't just multiply those two numbers to get the % of foreign buyers. It's impossible to infer the percentage of foreign buyers from the information you provided. The only thing you can infer from your data is the maximum possible percentage of foreign buyers in Miami, which is 83.3% ( = 75%/90%). So we know that Miami has from 0.0%-83.3% foreign buyers.

Sorry if this seems pedantic, but you're relying on this logic for the crux of your argument.

 

[fattony]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

^ Thank you for pointing out the dubious logic there.

Besides, cash-wielding foreigners who don't actually live in the condo are the last type of buyers we would want to attract. I'll take a few smaller building with less luxurious materials and 500 people coming in and out all day long over a beautiful empty tower any day.

 

[stellarfun]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

Your logic is wrong here, you can't just multiply those two numbers to get the % of foreign buyers. It's impossible to infer the percentage of foreign buyers from the information you provided. The only thing you can infer from your data is the maximum possible percentage of foreign buyers in Miami, which is 83.3% ( = 75%/90%). So we know that Miami has from 0.0%-83.3% foreign buyers.

Sorry if this seems pedantic, but you're relying on this logic for the crux of your argument.

I'll put the algorithm aside and refer to statements of others.

In Miami-Dade County, 63 percent of total closed sales in May [2013] were all-cash sales compared to 64.4 percent in May 2012. All-cash sales accounted for 44.5 percent of single-family home and 76 percent of condominium closings, compared to a year ago when cash sales were 43.6 percent and 77.7 percent of closed sales respectively. Since nearly 90 percent of foreign buyers in Florida purchase properties all cash, this reflects the much stronger presence of international buyers in the Miami real estate market.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/6/prweb10855824.htm

Latin Americans, Europeans, and Asians, who Zalewski says represent as much as 80 percent of new buyers in the area, are willing to plunk down deposits of more than three-quarters of the price. At Trump Hollywood, another superluxury complex (by the Donald, not the Jules, and the Related Group), 58 percent of buyers are South Americans, 22 percent Canadians, and 7 percent Russians. Apogee Beach, a new Related Group condo 20 miles north of the city, presold 87 percent of its units to Argentines, Venezuelans, and Mexicans—and only 5 percent to Americans, the developer says.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-01/foreign-buyers-heat-up-miamis-condo-market

60 percent of all home sales in Miami were to foreigners. (Condos would be a subset.)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324504704578412810483083892.html

 

[dshoost88]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

Your logic is wrong here...

I'll put the algorithm aside and refer to statements of others.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/6/prweb10855824.htm

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-01/foreign-buyers-heat-up-miamis-condo-market

60 percent of all home sales in Miami were to foreigners. (Condos would be a subset.)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324504704578412810483083892.html

stellarfun is right. The kind of foreign investment flooding into Miami right now is proportionately-speaking unlike anything I think any city in the Western Hemisphere has ever seen before. Right now the building boom in Miami is bigger than the record building boom that began 10 years ago and added 20,000 units downtown.

The unfortunate reality about what's going on down there is that South Florida is experiencing a brain drain as the majority of college-educated young people from down there are moving to cities like San Francisco, New York, Austin, Seattle, and even Boston where the jobs are. For now, Miami remains a comparatively less expensive market for foreigners to invest in and soak up the hot weather; however, I predict it's only a matter of time before they too begin dispersing across the US to the aforementioned major cities and contribute to building booms of their own. Hopefully by that time Trans National Place will be among many other supertall projects heavily demanded and breaking ground across Boston.

 

[FenwayResident]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

stellarfun is right. The kind of foreign investment flooding into Miami right now is proportionately-speaking unlike anything I think any city in the Western Hemisphere has ever seen before. Right now the building boom in Miami is bigger than the record building boom that began 10 years ago and added 20,000 units downtown.

The unfortunate reality about what's going on down there is that South Florida is experiencing a brain drain as the majority of college-educated young people from down there are moving to cities like San Francisco, New York, Austin, Seattle, and even Boston where the jobs are. For now, Miami remains a comparatively less expensive market for foreigners to invest in and soak up the hot weather; however, I predict it's only a matter of time before they too begin dispersing across the US to the aforementioned major cities and contribute to building booms of their own. Hopefully by that time Trans National Place will be among many other supertall projects heavily demanded and breaking ground across Boston.

Oh I believe it. I was just saying that the logic didn't prove it. But I appreciate the new sources posted.

Anyway, my prediction is that the Miami housing market will see a similar fate as Spain's housing market. A foreign-driven housing bubble (in Spain's case it was mostly English buyers) based mostly on tourism and good weather. Eventually it's gotta pop.

 

[prodigy92]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

stellarfun is right. The kind of foreign investment flooding into Miami right now is proportionately-speaking unlike anything I think any city in the Western Hemisphere has ever seen before. Right now the building boom in Miami is bigger than the record building boom that began 10 years ago and added 20,000 units downtown.

The unfortunate reality about what's going on down there is that South Florida is experiencing a brain drain as the majority of college-educated young people from down there are moving to cities like San Francisco, New York, Austin, Seattle, and even Boston where the jobs are. For now, Miami remains a comparatively less expensive market for foreigners to invest in and soak up the hot weather; however, I predict it's only a matter of time before they too begin dispersing across the US to the aforementioned major cities and contribute to building booms of their own. Hopefully by that time Trans National Place will be among many other supertall projects heavily demanded and breaking ground across Boston.

When that happens, you will see a lot of changes in Boston positively and we'll see a building booms around the city and might have a huge one, who knows.

 

[kmp1284]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

While Boston certainly has a lot going for it, it doesn't offer much to the foreign buyers that have been driving demand in Miami.

 

[DZH22]

Re: Trans National Place (Winthrop Square) Part 2

While Boston certainly has a lot going for it, it doesn't offer much to the foreign buyers that have been driving demand in Miami.

I would like to mention that Toronto also has a mega building boom, mostly housing and probably significantly larger than Miami's. Supposedly much of the demand there is driven by foreign buyers as well. I'm wondering, what does Toronto offer that couldn't also potentially apply to Boston?