2016 Presidential Election (General Election)

[TheRifleman]

^^^^^
Printing money could cause WWIII between the nations: BRICS VS Europe/United States:

If the BRICS get their banking sector together they don't need the United States anymore: The only thing the United States has the Military to bully everyone around.

Do you thing printing money has helped the American People? The money is not going to the American People all they have is DEBT--Its not even going to infrastructure.
Look how much Inflation has skyrocketed in these 3 sectors:
Housing,
College,
Healthcare
But our officials say their is no inflation: College at Georgetown University costs $250,000 for 4 yrs room& board. (The average American cannot afford this school)

Bottom Line in 10 Years if the BRICS can get their shit together they don't need to trade with America anymore. America really has nothing to offer:
Most of the doctors/Scientists are coming from China, India emerging nations. (THIS IS A FACT)

The United States Dept of Education is an EPIC failure. Teaching our kids to basically train to be a robot for the corporate world instead of independent free thinkers.

Just look at Michigan--Detroit, Flint on how those fellow Americans are ending up and I'm sure their are many other cities and towns in financial trouble. It seems Chicago is coming apart more people killed in this city than both Iraq and Afghan, the borders to Texas are mess. This is what DEBT does--It completely demoralizes and cripples your city and infrastructure.

America will be a nation of rich people vs Poor people: We just happen to live in one of the rich parts--

In the end there are only a couple of things that run the world:
Energy/Money--Whoever has the gold

All America has is Unlimited DEBT (Do you really believe they still have the gold at Fort Knox)

 

[WormtownNative]

^^^^^
(Do you really believe they still have the gold at Fort Knox)

I distinctly remember hearing years ago that the Germans wanted their gold back from the Fed, and the Fed was kind of going "Uhhhhhhh.........no you can't." (Suspicions were that they didn't have it - or it was lended out to a third party at the time.)

 

[fattony]

Can someone who is warning of the HORRORS of PRINTING MONEY please explain (actually, please don't) why PRINTING MONEY is the worst possible thing in the world???

1) Yes, we should strive to balance the budget. Definitely.

2) No, PRINTING MONEY (OMG!!!) is not the end of civilization.

The U.S. currency, throughout all of the horrors of debt accumulation, is still one of the, if not THE, most stable sources of value on this planet. The notion of "currency must be backed by gold!!" is an archaic way of saying "we don't trust the government". So long as U.S. currency is in the top echelon of currencies, which it is, and has been for a very long time, this entire discourse about printing money being the "WORST POSSIBLE" thing is bunk.

Currency value has nothing to do with precious metals. It is arbitrary with respect to material things. Currency value has to do with how one's country stacks up to others with regard to our value creation system. And while there's much to be improved, we are still in the topmost echelon.

So let's worry about the more important things (e.g., human rights, quality of life, not electing an idiot), while pushing the budget toward balance, and meanwhile, letting those printing presses hum (which, by the way, means more skyscrapers on boston...whoohooo).

These are good points. I'd like to add that central banks learning how to print money slowly and carefully has been a major revolution in the world economy. Slow and steady expansion of the money supply is a motivator to everyone holding cash to DO something with it instead of HOLDING it.

(Quick definitions - inflation is when the money supply grows faster than the economy and deflation is when the money supply shrinks or grows slower than the economy. Money can always be printed, but it isn't necessarily fast enough to produce inflation.)

The Fed has an inflation target instead of an inflation maximum. Yes, it is a number we don't want to exceed, but it is also a number we don't want to fall below. When an economy experiences deflation, people are rewarded just for sitting on piles of cash. This causes people to stop investing and start hoarding. This is basically the worst possible thing to happen for everyone, even the people with piles of cash (in the long run).

Deflation is the natural state of world without "printing money." If no one has the ability to add to the money supply (aside from the dumb luck of periodically discovering a gold mine), then every time the economy tries to grow deflationary pressure puts on the breaks. Rich people had a vested interest in the status quo that made them rich in the first place and didn't need to risk their own money to get richer if other people felt like doing something to improve the world. Just having money was enough to benefit from someone else's risk taking. As you can imagine, the periods of history that "End the Fed" whack-jobs cite as glorious times with no inflation were also times with no economic growth.

Deliberate, slow, and steady inflation allows the economy to grow and encourages people to invest to grow it further. Inflation actually REQUIRES you to take risk in order to get richer. This is, in essence, the bedrock of the growth economy and the reason we all enjoy the standard of living that we do. Since the Great Recession, interest rates have been pinned to the floor to prevent us entering deflation. People (I really mean institutions with billions and billions of dollars, not Joe Blow like you and me) lost their taste for risk and have needed encouragement to keep their money circulating out in the economy. The good news is that is has worked and things are getting better.

 

[TheRifleman]

Your theory is the reason why the American middle class people have fallen into the poverty bracket--- and this is why America has almost 50 Million working people receiving Govt food stamps.

Low Interest rates devalue the working class dollar which inflates all levels of the cost of living for necessity. Destroys your purchasing power-

High Interest rates values the working class---The costs of Rent, College, Healthcare, Energy costs become cheaper across the board because your dollar actually has value for better purchasing power.

http://www.forexrazor.com/Portals/0/images/School/Charts/28-mrt-6.jpg


Fattony at this point---How could you favor Low Interest rates -- Its been 8 years now--- what about the other side of the coin it seems like they are only favoring taking on more debt? And the only real people to take on huge amounts of debt is the corporations: Its not favoring the American people besides sticking them with useless inflated college & car loans which are out of control now due to inflation: You are destroying the productive class of people with low interest rates.
Grocery workers, Dunkin Donuts workers, Hardworking citizens that would always have jobs? The working class have become DEBT slaves.

Your theory is backwards against the MiddleClass. The Federal Govt and the Private Federal Reserve bank have created a Mess and the American Ponzi Scheme will not survive what is coming.

I read a thesis on from a Russian professor on how America will break apart from the Federal Govt. I thought this guy was nuts. But the paper was based on DEBT:
He claimed when Federal Govt Defaults on the debts- America will split into 4 terrorities already owned by other countries anyways:
Atlantic America==Back to the Eurpean Union
California Republic==China/Asia
Texas republic==Mexican influence
Central North American Republic== Canadian
This was based on America selling it's military to a global govt to payoff its Unfunded Liabilities. It's a crazy theory but seriously the basic mathematics at this point don't make sense. This is based on the BRICS not needing America anymore for anything? America does not make anything we are service economy for the RICH. The corporations are manufacturing everything outside the country.

It's only a theory---But seeing how this is unwinding their might be some truth behind it. The article was written in 2010---His timing is definitely off and hopefully the theory is also.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123051100709638419

 

[tysmith95]

Low interest rates are why so much development has been occurring in Boston the past few years. Without it you probably wouldn't see many of the projects that we discuss on this fourm.

Also low interest rates make it much easier for the middle class to buy homes. Without it there would be more wealthy landlords and less middle class homeowners.

Fattony, great post!

 

[bigpicture7]

Pretty much all money, everywhere, is printed. Saying we shouldn't print money literally doesn't mean anything. It's all relative now - all that matters is are we expanding monetary supply too much? (and fattony's post addresses that). The question is whether our monetary policy is right in the global context (e.g., are we tanking our currency versus others'): and the answer to that has been a resounding no. The "BRIC" was a trendy thing to be concerned about 5-10 years ago. Every one in the BRIC, including China, is doing worse today than critics thought they'd be doing then. And Brazil and Russia have entirely tanked.

fattony and ty are spot on. The middle class "debt crisis" was pre-2008: that, in essence, is the entire point. In 2003-2007 everyone was borrowing too much to "ride the wave" when they shouldn't have been. Now, low interest loans to people who actually qualify is what's enabling middle class people to buy homes. The fact that the middle class is too small today (which it is) is due to an employment situation that is entirely gamed by financialization of american business. Larger and larger fraction of US companies go public (check out Germany's proportion of public companies relative to GDP compared to the US; check out what that was in the US in 1950-1975); we are a nation ruled by the stock market, and a nation of CEO's whose compensation is almost entirely tied to stock; they are essentially paid to cut labor costs at all costs. CEO pay went way up while the middle class got laid off/demoted/outsourced. CEO pay is 100x what it was a few decades ago. Our own (US!) financial system is what killed the middle class; not our printing of money.

 

[fattony]

The fact that the middle class is too small today (which it is) is due to an employment situation that is entirely gamed by financialization of american business. Larger and larger fraction of US companies go public (check out Germany's proportion of public companies relative to GDP compared to the US; check out what that was in the US in 1950-1975);

This is very interesting. I'd like to understand this better. Can you recommend a good reference?

 

[bigpicture7]

This is very interesting. I'd like to understand this better. Can you recommend a good reference?

Sure, any of the work on "varieties of capitalism" (Hall & Soskice, and others)

 

[TheRifleman]

CEO pay is 100x what it was a few decades ago. Our own (US!) financial system is what killed the middle class; not our printing of money.

In my opinion Alan Greenspan is responsible the out of control bubbles that the Fed started inducing since the Dot.com bubble in 2000:
It started with NAFTA--Thanks to the CLintons
2000 Dot.com Bubble----Greenspan
2008 Housing Bubble----- Ben Bernanke
2010 Asset Bubble---- Yellen (Which is current)


Along with lack of Govt Regulation--accountability and transparency from the SEC and other corrupt govt agencies.
That's when the bailouts began
700 Billion dollar bailout list:
https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list

This is not a free market system when our govt is picking the winners and losers: Corporations should follow the bankruptcy laws--- Seems like we now live in Fascist regime:

100+Trillion in unfunded Liabilities:
20 Trillion National Debt
1 Trillion dollar Student Debt (Because of overinflated Colleges Costs)

If your a private company CEO and you demand to make 100Million a year. If the company can afford that WHO CARES what the CEO makes in the end if the CEO is greedy he will lose to free markets: If you don't take care of your employees competition will succeed over some Greedy POS.

Tell me how Low Interest rates are helping the overall American working class stiff trying to afford the everyday necessities. The cost of living is completely over-inflated-

High Interest rates would crash their overinflated asset prices: Which would create opportunity for the working stiffs that actually work hard for a living. There purchasing power would increase 10-fold-- Possibly forcing the Rich guy who is the only person in the room to propser on low interest rates.
The only person that can get the loans today are the RICH. The working class stiff has too much

 

[tysmith95]

I think the decrease in the middle class is a reflection of today's economy. There are more upper middle class than three used to be with an increase in technology, engineering, business, and healthcare professionals. However what's really dying is the blue collar middle class. The jobs where one could make a decent living for a family of four working at a factory just don't exist anymore. People with few professional skills are being left behind. It's not even because of China and other nations with inexpensive labor, increased automation has as much to do with the death of these industries.

Improving our education system needs to be a priority in this country. More and more jobs will be performed by automated machines, which will be great for educated professionals but will continue to devalue the labor of unskilled workers. Imagine what will happen when automated vehicles become mainstream. Millions of jobs will be lost in the trucking and transportation industries. However when innovations like this happen the economy is usually good at creating new unheard of jobs. However many of these jobs require advanced expertise.

I do worry that in the future a new "underclass" consisting of people who are not able or willing to obtain advanced training will form. Sure increasing the min wage will help in the short term but in the long term it will cause under-skilled workers to loose their jobs to automation and leave them in a precarious situation.

Sure this is an unpopular opinion but CEO's should get paid alot. They have very stressful jobs and could be replaced at any time. They are also very important to the success of companies as the tone at the top often decides which companies are successful or not.

One job that I think is dumb is hedge fund managers. They get paid some of the highest wages in the world in order to pay the lottery also known as the stock market with others money.

 

[bigpicture7]

This is not a free market system when our govt is picking the winners and losers

It's not a free market system for a million reasons, such as how we let the automaker lobbyists ensure the gov't taxed the snot out of cars from japan so u.s. automakers could continue making shitty cars for many years until the Japanese companies built final assembly factories in the U.S. (the oil crisis accelerated u.s. co's needing to make better cars but that was a separate phenomenon).

As far as picking winners and losers:
Half the damn country's innocent lower/middle class workers' retirement pensions were invested, completely outside of their control, in the bailout companies such as GM. So it's not just about GM suffering bankruptcy, it's about helping innocent american's not get screwed. No one likes the bailouts. It was a lesser of evils choice. And btw, they are pretty much all paid off by now.

If your a private company CEO and you demand to make 100Million a year. If the company can afford that WHO CARES what the CEO makes in the end if the CEO is greedy he will lose to free markets.

We're not talking about private company CEO's, we're talking about publicly traded companies' CEO's. You're right when it comes to privately held and small business executives. But they're not the issue.
Here's what the "market forces" have solved for us:
- Highest paid position in U.S.: CEO (paid primarily in stock options) - fine by me if they're competent
- Second highest paid position in U.S.: fired CEO (they are literally always able to cash out. always.)

Tell me how Low Interest rates are helping the overall American working class stiff trying to afford the everyday necessities. The cost of living is completely over-inflated-

Have you tried buying a ford focus or honda civic on an auto loan lately? In real terms, cheaper than it's been in over a decade

 

[TheRifleman]

Have you tried buying a ford focus or honda civic on an auto loan lately? In real terms, cheaper than it's been in over a decade

That's great I can afford to buy a Honda Civic or a Ford Focus because of Low Interest rates.

Well if Interest rates were higher I could live life much more comfortable.
Rent would be cheaper
Electricity would be cheaper
Food would be cheaper
College would be cheaper.

Higher interest rates would create a better balance with the working class because the Asset bubble would blow. So things would be cheaper including buying an overpriced POS CAR.

The problem with Higher interest rates is the GOVT Defaults because they can't afford to pay higher interest on the DEBT and their bloated deficits.

They are destroying the U.S. Working class who actually make America run daily. Truck Drivers, Grocery Workers, Retail, basic laborers.

Yes. I get that the American people need to identify new skills to get better pay. But the overall system rewards Failure and criminals over harding- working individuals.

That's my point

 

[Justin7]

Jesus Christ, man. If you care about this stuff, why not go to night school and take an economics class instead of reading conspiracy theories on the internet? Or just buy a textbook to get basic understanding of what you're talking about. You may not be aware of the fact that anyone can have a website. It takes ten minutes. The internet is full of crazy.

Your theory is the reason why the American middle class people have fallen into the poverty bracket--- and this is why America has almost 50 Million working people receiving Govt food stamps.

Low Interest rates devalue the working class dollar which inflates all levels of the cost of living for necessity. Destroys your purchasing power-

High Interest rates values the working class---The costs of Rent, College, Healthcare, Energy costs become cheaper across the board because your dollar actually has value for better purchasing power.

http://www.forexrazor.com/Portals/0/images/School/Charts/28-mrt-6.jpg


Fattony at this point---How could you favor Low Interest rates -- Its been 8 years now--- what about the other side of the coin it seems like they are only favoring taking on more debt? And the only real people to take on huge amounts of debt is the corporations: Its not favoring the American people besides sticking them with useless inflated college & car loans which are out of control now due to inflation: You are destroying the productive class of people with low interest rates.
Grocery workers, Dunkin Donuts workers, Hardworking citizens that would always have jobs? The working class have become DEBT slaves.

Your theory is backwards against the MiddleClass. The Federal Govt and the Private Federal Reserve bank have created a Mess and the American Ponzi Scheme will not survive what is coming.

I read a thesis on from a Russian professor on how America will break apart from the Federal Govt. I thought this guy was nuts. But the paper was based on DEBT:
He claimed when Federal Govt Defaults on the debts- America will split into 4 terrorities already owned by other countries anyways:
Atlantic America==Back to the Eurpean Union
California Republic==China/Asia
Texas republic==Mexican influence
Central North American Republic== Canadian
This was based on America selling it's military to a global govt to payoff its Unfunded Liabilities. It's a crazy theory but seriously the basic mathematics at this point don't make sense. This is based on the BRICS not needing America anymore for anything? America does not make anything we are service economy for the RICH. The corporations are manufacturing everything outside the country.

It's only a theory---But seeing how this is unwinding their might be some truth behind it. The article was written in 2010---His timing is definitely off and hopefully the theory is also.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123051100709638419

 

[TheRifleman]

^^^^

Justin I understand your an angry person who has to take his frustrations out on others:
But seriously---- I don't know what I'm talking about?

Do you know how much a TRILLION DOLLARS IS?
Our Federal Govt owes 100+ Trillion (I actually heard possibly up to 300Trillion) I don't know the facts on the exact numbers. I'm not sure if anybody really knows at this point.

It's Mathematically impossible to pay back this debt without defaulting.
This is basic math.

But I need an economics class? How about sending our leaders in Washington back to Elementary school to take Basic Math class.
We have a bunch of entitle little shits running the govt.

 

[fattony]

It's Mathematically impossible to pay back this debt without defaulting.
This is basic math.

But I need an economics class? How about sending our leaders in Washington back to Elementary school to take Basic Math class.

By all means, please support your points with math. However, elementary math is not sufficient to understand global financial markets. Justin's suggestion of learning more about economics is a good one for all of us. The most important thing sometimes is to know what you don't know rather than assuming that you know it all.

Radio talk show hosts and bloggers will dazzle you with big numbers and some math they scribbled on a napkin, but it really isn't that simple. They are probably just interested in you listening so they can collect ad revenue, but even if they mean well, they obviously do not understand the economy if they claim some simple arithmetic explains everything.

 

[TheRifleman]

Let’s Measure a Trillion in Money
With about 305,000,000 people and 111,000,000 households in the U.S -est.

$1 Million is 1¢ per household,
$1 Billion is $3.28 per person and $9 per household,
$1 Trillion is $3,280 per person and $9,000 per household


If a person’s salary is $40,000 per year it would take: Basic US Labor Salary:
25 years to earn $1 Million
25 Thousand years to earn $1 Billion,
25 Million years to earn $1 Trillion

If you lived to be 80 years of age, to have:
$1 Million you would have to save $34 each day of your life,
$1 Billion you would have to save $34,000 each day of your life,
$1 Trillion you would have to save $34 Million each day of your life


This is just the National DEBT#'s
As of August 4, 2016, the official debt of the United States government is $19.4 trillion ($19,379,566,441,022).[1] This amounts to:

• $59,790 for every person living in the U.S.[2]
• $155,550 for every household in the U.S.[3]
• 105% of the U.S. gross domestic product.[4]
• 559% of annual federal revenues.[5]

THIS IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO OUR FINANCIAL FREEDOM
Gee wouldn't you know therifleman went to school for Economics and Accounting and he actually graduated.

 

[Justin7]

^^^^

Justin I understand your an angry person who has to take his frustrations out on others:
But seriously---- I don't know what I'm talking about?

I am not angry. I am not taking frustrations out on you. I am trying to help you.

It is obvious that you don't know what you're talking about. I am not saying this to insult you or to put you down. I'm sorry if you take it that way, but honest to god, a little education would help you speak more fluently about financial matters and likely make you happier as well.

By all means, please support your points with math. However, elementary math is not sufficient to understand global financial markets. Justin's suggestion of learning more about economics is a good one for all of us. The most important thing sometimes is to know what you don't know rather than assuming that you know it all.

Radio talk show hosts and bloggers will dazzle you with big numbers and some math they scribbled on a napkin, but it really isn't that simple. They are probably just interested in you listening so they can collect ad revenue, but even if they mean well, they obviously do not understand the economy if they claim some simple arithmetic explains everything.

Thank you. Well said.

 

[tysmith95]

Our federal government does not owe 100 trillion. The federal goverment owes 14 trillion or about 76% of the United States yearly GDP. The 100 Trillion dollar number includes future social security, medicare, medicade, and other obligations. However new people will enter the workforce in the coming years and help pay for these obligations, it's not debt. Saying the united states government is 100 trillion dollars is like saying you owe 20 grand today because you will need to replace your car in a few years, or saying that you owe 200 grand today because you'll need to put your kid through college in 10 years.

But Rifle you do make a good point that the federal debt is too high. The government should not continue to run deficits when the economy is doing well, deficits should only be used during bad economic times. I would say this is a function of both sides of the political spectrum, Republicans want to decrease taxes while increasing military spending and hoping that their tax decreases will magically improve the economy enough so that total tax revenue doesn't change. Democrats on the other hand plan on increasing entitlements while making no meaningful plans to pay for it.

One issue with representative democracy is that most politicians fail to look past a four year window. They focus on issues that will help them get reelected in the short term but fail to adequately focus on long term problems. Representative democracy is still a hell of a lot better than authoritarian regimes but it does have it's shortcomings.

 

[TheRifleman]

I am not angry. I am not taking frustrations out on you. I am trying to help you.

It is obvious that you don't know what you're talking about. I am not saying this to insult you or to put you down. I'm sorry if you take it that way, but honest to god, a little education would help you speak more fluently about financial matters and likely make you happier as well.

Justin no worries, Maybe someday--- I throw you a bone and let you hang out with the Rif, It would probably be the most enlightenment you have ever received in your life.

 

[KentXie]

I'm going to weigh in this a little as it seems that Rifleman is missing a significant portion of the picture in regards to how low interest rates are beneficial to the state of the economy. I want to point out the below quote specifically.

Low Interest rates devalue the working class dollar which inflates all levels of the cost of living for necessity. Destroys your purchasing power-

High Interest rates values the working class---The costs of Rent, College, Healthcare, Energy costs become cheaper across the board because your dollar actually has value for better purchasing power.

The economy is all about a balance/equilibrium. In regards to the quote above, this is a very one sided view so let me add a little bit more to each statement (my comments in italic)

Low Interest rates devalue the working class dollar which inflates all levels of the cost of living for necessity. Destroys your purchasing power. However, low interest rates also spurs spending. The opportunity cost of holding money decreases in a low interest rate environment because you don't earn much interests by saving money and as a result, people are more likely to spend more of their earnings, increasing the demand for both luxury and necessity goods. The demand drives business growth and in turn increases employment meaning more people are receiving income and more people have money to spend to further boost economic growth. The weakening dollar also has the benefit of attracting foreign investment as foreigners are more likely to spend on US made products as they are now cheaper. This is the very same reason that China depresses the strength of their yuan. Low interests also means that people struggling to pay back loans can also decrease their financial burdens by refinancing.

High Interest rates values the working class---The costs of Rent, College, Healthcare, Energy costs become cheaper across the board because your dollar actually has value for better purchasing power.However, high interest rate also depresses spending. The opportunity cost of holding money increases as you can benefit more by having your money saved and earn interest than to spend it. As a result, spending decreases and the demand for all luxury and necessity goods decreases, resulting in job cutbacks. Your purchasing power does increase but this would also mean that foreign goods become cheaper than domestic goods. Considering that the type of foreign goods that benefit the most from a stronger dollar tend to be ones that are produced by the working class, the working class workers are the ones that are negatively impacted the most in this environment as they have to compete with foreign products and foreign workers. In a sense, the people that benefits the most from a high interest rate environment are those who spend a very small proportion of their earnings on necessities, i.e. the upper class because their money are worth more, they have more money to save and earn interests, and their jobs, due to high skill specification required, are very unlikely to be outsourced. Other beneficiaries are retirees who earn a higher interest rate on their fixed income investments.