Amazon HQ2 RFP

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I feel like all of the news stories trying to "predict" HQ2 are blowing smoke and don't have anything legit or concrete.

I don't think that Amazon would announce the relocation to thousands of employees before they make it public, it's most likely just a small group researching it.

Well I think the referenced story and recent other stories are more along the lines of rumors and leaks that Amazons people are on the ground doing due diligence at various locations and trying to read into that.

That doesn't mean they aren't doing due diligence or trying to negotiate elsewhere in places that are a bit more tight lipped. Or as with Boston when they negotiate a million square feet of office space... the exact amount which would be the first phase of an HQ2... that Amazon can just say it is part of their expansion plans outside of the HQ2 designation for future expansion.
 
https://www.bostonglobe.com/busines...land-amazon/P6ZwWTs7I4xRZtWFVyluxM/story.html

Logan Globe; Poll: Many Bostonians aren’t breathlessly following the race to land Amazon’s HQ2


Local business and political leaders may be in the thick of the chase to bring Amazon’s much-coveted “second headquarters” to Boston. But regular Bostonians? Many are indifferent to the process, and some remain oblivious to it.

That’s the takeaway from a new poll of residents who live in metro areas Amazon is considering for its $5 billion campus. Only 34 percent of Boston area residents said they “strongly support” Amazon bringing its HQ2 here, while 22 percent “neither support nor oppose” the idea. Those numbers are the lowest and highest, respectively, in the 16 metro areas polled by Elon University and American City Business Journals.

Another 38 percent of the 386 Boston area residents polled said they “somewhat support” the project — meaning that overall, a sizeable majority views it favorably — and only 5 percent said they’re opposed. Thirteen percent said they haven’t heard anything about the effort to bring Amazon’s campus to Boston.
contd
 
NYTimes has a had a couple recent articles on Amazons site selection.
FWIW, it looks like Amazon is weighing the impact of HQ2 on housing prices. They have become a scapegoat for high housing prices in Seattle and don't want to repeat the situation in a new city.

Separately, the Times (based on Zillow) estimates rents in Boston will increase $500 above what they otherwise would if the city lands HQ2. That's a lot more than the increases in DC, NYC, Philly, Atl or Chicago. Only Denver (of the serious contenders) does worse (+$700).

Of course, this is all speculation, but it seems like Boston's biggest (and probably only drawback) is the lack of housing supply.


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/business/economy/amazon-hq-rents.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/...ond-headquarters-learn-the-lessons-of-seattle
 
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NYTimes has a had a couple recent articles on Amazons site selection.
FWIW, it looks like Amazon is weighing the impact of HQ2 on housing prices. They have become a scapegoat for high housing prices in Seattle and don't want to repeat the situation in a new city.

Separately, the Times (based on Zillow) estimates rents in Boston will increase $500 above what they otherwise would if the city lands HQ2. That's a lot more than the increases in DC, NYC, Philly, Atl or Chicago. Only Denver (of the serious contenders) does worse (+$700).

Of course, this is all speculation, but it seems like Boston's biggest (and probably only drawback) is the lack of housing supply.


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/business/economy/amazon-hq-rents.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/...ond-headquarters-learn-the-lessons-of-seattle

If that estimate is even half right HQ2 will be a disaster for hundreds of thousands of people here.
 
Formal announcement on either the Consolation Prize or Beginning of The Toe Dip......

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/20...on/E0cJY8W0uIednMLlVZF9cK/story.html#comments

"Alexa is heading to the Seaport.

Amazon will formally announce on Tuesday a huge expansion in Boston that will bring 2,000 technology jobs to a new building in Seaport Square, where it will focus on developing its Alexa voice-activated technology, as well as cloud computing and robotics.

It’s confirmation of a move that has been much-talked-about in Boston’s tech and real estate circles in recent months, as WS Development negotiated a lease for a full, 430,000-square-foot building in its Seaport Square project and $5 million in city property tax breaks for Amazon. And it cements Boston as one of the retail giant’s prime technology hubs, even as the company weighs 20 metro areas, including Boston, for the site of a second headquarters to equal its longtime home in Seattle........"
 
If that estimate is even half right HQ2 will be a disaster for hundreds of thousands of people here.

Or, the city could build more housing, coupled with people commuting in from cheaper places as everybody need not live in the middle of the city itself.
 
That article admits that the Boston data is unreliable (Boston has an asterix):

Notes: “Without Amazon” assumes rents will grow steadily at projected 2019 rates. “With Amazon” is based on Zillow’s model and assumes a constant effect from Amazon beginning in 2019. Projections may be less reliable in cities marked with an asterisk(*). Data are for the metropolitan statistical areas of the cities shown; Washington data includes Northern Virginia and Montgomery County, Md.; cities are ranked by the potential difference in rent. | Source: Zillow | By The New York Times

It also makes no mention of an increase in supply that would surely follow. It seems like they're just focusing on the demand increase:

Zillow cautions that its estimates are rough, based on a simple model that looks at how rents in each city have responded to past influxes of workers. If the cities respond differently to Amazon’s arrival — for example, by building more housing — the impact on rents could be smaller than Zillow’s model estimates.

In short I wouldn't put too much stock into those numbers.
 
Or, the city could build more housing, coupled with people commuting in from cheaper places as everybody need not live in the middle of the city itself.

Yeah, but given the insane hours that Amazon workers work, they will want to be as close as possible to the office. Even they will be living 2-3 to a unit.

Does seem like they greatly prefer the Seaport compared to like Suffolk Downs.
 
Yeah, but given the insane hours that Amazon workers work, they will want to be as close as possible to the office. Even they will be living 2-3 to a unit.

Does seem like they greatly prefer the Seaport compared to like Suffolk Downs.

Makes sense. If they do that turn Suffolk Downs into all housing.
 
Or, the city could build more housing, coupled with people commuting in from cheaper places as everybody need not live in the middle of the city itself.

LOL

As for the analysis...

"Data are for the metropolitan statistical areas of the cities shown"

Thats a pretty shit metric. The NYC MSA is like the size of Massachusetts. Amazon would absolutely fuck over rents for people in Newark. Obviously, those in central Connecticut wouldnt be affected
 
Newark at least has room for, and is approving the construction of oodles of housing.
 
Or, the city could build more housing, coupled with people commuting in from cheaper places as everybody need not live in the middle of the city itself.

More housing. Well, duh. But that's only half the problem.

Yes, there should be a lot more housing.

No, people shouldn't accepts tens of thousands of well-moneyed workers moving into their city just because market fetishists think the government has no business preventing hardship and disruption in their lives.

If the city keeps trying to get rich and upper-middle class to move into the city, the people who live here now are going to be priced out. That's a future worth preventing.
 
More housing. Well, duh. But that's only half the problem.

Yes, there should be a lot more housing.

No, people shouldn't accepts tens of thousands of well-moneyed workers moving into their city just because market fetishists think the government has no business preventing hardship and disruption in their lives.

If the city keeps trying to get rich and upper-middle class to move into the city, the people who live here now are going to be priced out. That's a future worth preventing.

Another major issue is Traffic. For example Malden Center is adding another 200 Condo units which means possibly another 200-300 cars in that specific area which causing local congestion.

Traffic is another scenario which is getting ignored.
 
Good thing its TOD and right next to the Orange Line in Malden Center (which will be getting a 40% boost in capacity in the next 2 years).
 
Newark at least has room for, and is approving the construction of oodles of housing.

Some housing, yes. Not oodles.

Newark had, at one point, 442,337 people. Today it is 261,764.

So theres certainly room. The problem is, an office building can go up in 12 months. It always takes significantly longer for new housing to get developed.

Youd be shocked at how much NIMBY activity there is.

Newark Penn has 3 commuter rail line, PATH, Newark subway, 30 bus lines, Greyhound, Bolt Bus, and more....

And yet the folks in the adjacent neighborhood throw a hissy fit any time something over 4 floors is proposed.

http://www.nj.com/essex/index.ssf/2017/06/newark_ironbound_residents_rail_against_city_devel.html

If developers are allowed to build 15- to 18-story residential buildings within a half mile radius of Penn Station, residents said, the Ironbound infrastructure will not be able to support the increased density.

The amendment they're fighting comes after McWhorter LLC, owned by Jose Lopez Jr., recently proposed a 12-story apartment building on land where it operates the J&L parking lot that, according to a court ruling, should not be in business on McWhorter Street.

Ok, so their protest worked and they got zoning limited to 12 floors.

But....


When Lisa Sanders bought her condo five years ago in the Button Factory condominiums—a converted 1879 button factory in Newark’s Ironbound neighborhood—she thought the charm and character of the four-square-mile, multi-ethnic hub she called home would never change.

But now Sanders is concerned that her bustling and diverse neighborhood in the city’s East Ward is in jeopardy due to new zoning legislation recently passed by Newark’s city council.

“We bought in with expectations,” Sander said. “I speak for a lot of my neighbors. We want to see development, but we don’t want high-rises plopped in the middle of our neighborhood. It’s a very profitable ward and a thriving community and now they want to jeopardize that.”

The development measure will now allow for developers to construct high-density residential and commercial buildings up to 12 stories in certain Ironbound locations near Penn Station.

The complaint, filed in Superior Court in November, challenges the validity of the MX-3 ordinance and alleges the new zoning rules undermine Newark's 2012 Master Plan, which residents say seeks to protect the culturally diverse, low-scale character of the Ironbound.

...

Martinez noted a 7-Eleven recently built inside a converted building in the area and said that an increase in development threatens small businesses and ruins the character of the neighborhood.

“Dunkin Donuts and 7-Eleven are not amenities for people who live here,” he said. “We already have our nice coffee shops. They threaten small businesses and they’re an eyesore. I only have to walk three blocks from my house to see abandoned buildings on Market Street. Shouldn’t we focus on those?”

https://www.tapinto.net/towns/newark/articles/ironbound-residents-sue-city-council-planning-bo
 
Looks a lot like Amazon is handing out consolation prizes to losing cities in the HQ2 race. Boston this morning, Vancouver/Canada yesterday:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/amazon-vancouver-new-jobs-1.4641765

That broad brush statement dribbled outside the lines. Vancouver is not on the finalist list. Boston is. Currently two entirely different city categories. Still doesn’t mean Boston is a shoo in, but it won’t lose it because of that reasoning.
 
That broad brush statement dribbled outside the lines. Vancouver is not on the finalist list. Boston is. Currently two entirely different city categories. Still doesn’t mean Boston is a shoo in, but it won’t lose it because of that reasoning.

PM Trudeau announced yesterday's Vancouver expansion in person. You really think the PM would come out for this relatively measly news if Amazon was going to pick Toronto for HQ2 in the near future? Toronto's bid is dead, this is clearly Canada's consolation prize.

Does that mean Boston's expansion is a similar deal? Of course not. Could always be a coincidence, but the timing makes it an interesting development.
 
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