COVID-19 in Boston

KentXie

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I think we'll get much higher than 50% immunization anyways. I think the social media echo chambers are really amplifying the anti-vaccine rhetoric, but when push comes to shove most people are going to get it within the next 24 months in order to return to normal life...

My guess is the big drivers for vaccination will be:

1. Voluntary
2. Jobs mandating that employees get vaccinated, either to keep their job or to prevent liability charges that an unvaccinated employee got someone else sick.

I don't think we'll see government mandated vaccination except for healthcare, and emergency services.
I feel like those job mandates would be subjected to lawsuits. Not trying to be a debbie downer but the past year has really shown me how dedicated some Americans are to the cult of Trump and their leader's "alternate reality".
 

stefal

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The polls weren't conducted through social media. They were professionally conducted on a national scale. As of last month, 35-51% of respondents won't get a vaccine, and last I read, it was believed a minimum of somewhere in the 60-70 percent range is required for herd immunity. At 50% getting a vaccine, that would require ~30 million (currently at 11.4M) people in the US at a minimum getting infected with COVID and hopefully developing the antibodies themselves, and it's currently predicted that the antibioties from infection really only last about 3 months before you're at risk of infection again.

See you guys in Europe..
 

meddlepal

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Because polling is so accurate... we have now gone through two elections that have shown national polls to be deeply flawed.

One of the factors to consider is peoples safety skepticism of a vaccine... which decreases over time as evidence builds that it is safe. Thats why I am saying it will take around 24 months. Im not likely going to take v1 of the vaccine but by the end of 2021 barring any major safety issues I will almost certainly get it.
 

Equilibria

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It's really unfortunate how Covid and it preventative measures have become so politicized into a liberal vs, conservative thing. I'm fairly conservative (whatever that really means) in my political views, but I will certainly take the vaccine when they come up with it.
I'd suspect that Massachusetts vaccination rates will be pretty high compared to some other parts of the country. It's 58% that would take it in the last poll, and I doubt that's evenly distributed.
 

chmeeee

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I feel like those job mandates would be subjected to lawsuits. Not trying to be a debbie downer but the past year has really shown me how dedicated some Americans are to the cult of Trump and their leader's "alternate reality".
What would be the basis of the lawsuit? In a right to work state, they can fire you for pretty much any reason that is not related to a protected class. So they can fire me for wearing a blue shirt, or they can fire me for refusing to vaccinate.
 

KentXie

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What would be the basis of the lawsuit? In a right to work state, they can fire you for pretty much any reason that is not related to a protected class. So they can fire me for wearing a blue shirt, or they can fire me for refusing to vaccinate.
You'd be surprised. There are already lawsuits levied against schools for refusing to allow students who are not vaccinated (for mumps IIRC) and the most common reason used as the basis of the lawsuits is religious freedom, i.e. vaccination infringes their religious belief. It doesn't hold water but you know that will be a route many of them will go down
 

DZH22

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I'll wait and make sure the kinks are ironed out before taking it. I'm thinking 4-6 months after initial rollout, assuming it is by then widely available to the general public. I need to know what the side effects will be, and know that it does, in fact, work as a longer term solution. Supposedly, what they have right now is not a pleasant process.
 

George_Apley

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Because polling is so accurate... we have now gone through two elections that have shown national polls to be deeply flawed.
This is a silly statement. The polls have been more-or-less as accurate as they've tended to be for decades with a few structural problems, especially how best to mitigate non-response factors by conservatives who want to pwn the media. National polls are not *deeply flawed*, they're one tool in the toolbox to understand how the public feels and responds to certain things. What is *deeply flawed* is the public's understanding of statistics.

On an issue poll like vaccine acceptance, an error even as wide as 10-12 points is still pointing to a massive portion of the public who are leaning anti-vaxx. That might change once (if?) Trump is no longer in the political scene - in particular among "no vaccine" liberals who just didn't trust Trump to safely roll out one.
 

ra84970

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The polls weren't conducted through social media. They were professionally conducted on a national scale. As of last month, 35-51% of respondents won't get a vaccine, and last I read, it was believed a minimum of somewhere in the 60-70 percent range is required for herd immunity. At 50% getting a vaccine, that would require ~30 million (currently at 11.4M) people in the US at a minimum getting infected with COVID and hopefully developing the antibodies themselves, and it's currently predicted that the antibioties from infection really only last about 3 months before you're at risk of infection again.

See you guys in Europe..
Herd immunity requires 70% of people to have been vaccinated. Note, that herd immunity does not mean, however, that COVID would go away at that level of vaccination. It would mean that we live "with" COVID infecting many people, just not enough to overwhelm our healthcare systems.

Other countries have been able to control COVID-19 without a vaccine. I'm absolutely gutted that this country has accepted living "with" covid instead of living "without" covid.


EDIT: Found a link to the European Union's European Council vaccination strategy. Which has information about their consideraations for prioritizing vaccines. They name the populations that should be considered, but, don't actually prioritize. An interesting thing to read: https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/vaccination/docs/2020_strategies_deployment_en.pdf Really, to put you to sleep.
 
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Arenacale

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Bless you and deepest thanks to you.
Oh, I'm not front line by any stretch, but thank you. That wasn't the intent of the post, merely to point out some of us legitimately won't have a choice when it comes through. Flu shots have always been "mandatory" but this is the first year they've threatened actual termination for not getting one.
 

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